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Art Cashin: "Chances 50/50 No Rate Hike This Year"
FYI: I stated there would be no rate hike this year a couple of week's ago, and after today's testimony, I'm even more convinced. Regards, Ted http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000356926
Cashin is about as good as our local weatherman. Lately it's been 50% chance of fair skies and 50% chance of snow showers. (He's been right every day.)
Funny .. but I got a decidedly different message from the 2-minute clip I viewed of Janet's testimony than Cashin and 90% of the other pundits did. "We're no longer time dependent" (my words) was the message. That must mean no more of that "considerable period" nonsense. Essentially, they're now fully data driven. Guess who reads, interprets and reacts to that data? (Hint - not Congress, Art Cashin or you and me.) -
As I've said before, I believe there will be a token increase in the Federał Funds Rate before the end of 2015. Lots of reasons why they would do so - and the first would be primarily to gage market reaction. They've telegraphed this pretty well. So it may not have much of an impact on equities. I'm not sure what the significance (if any) is for bond holders. A bubble Is a bubble Is a .....
Consider that the Fed's influence is mainly at the shorter end of the curve - though rate hikes there can sometimes cause the longer part of the curve to react.
Comments
A couple of weeks ago the sense was no rate hikes this year.
Funny .. but I got a decidedly different message from the 2-minute clip I viewed of Janet's testimony than Cashin and 90% of the other pundits did. "We're no longer time dependent" (my words) was the message. That must mean no more of that "considerable period" nonsense. Essentially, they're now fully data driven. Guess who reads, interprets and reacts to that data? (Hint - not Congress, Art Cashin or you and me.)
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As I've said before, I believe there will be a token increase in the Federał Funds Rate before the end of 2015. Lots of reasons why they would do so - and the first would be primarily to gage market reaction. They've telegraphed this pretty well. So it may not have much of an impact on equities. I'm not sure what the significance (if any) is for bond holders. A bubble Is a bubble Is a .....
Consider that the Fed's influence is mainly at the shorter end of the curve - though rate hikes there can sometimes cause the longer part of the curve to react.
Hang on.