My point in selecting some market periods and returns was merely to show that
it can be disappointing to wait for the long term to kick in
and reward one’s investing patience… thirty years is a long time.
Secondly, a bit of simple market timing/momentum investing can generate
returns that exceed the long-term market averages.
I didn’t include this information because I’m posted several of my own
timing strategies in the past… and the return results for the strategy I’ve employed
for my long-term portfolio.
The examples of returns that I posted were not “arbitrary”.
The mistake that I made (my second one so far) was that I assumed that the dates
selected would resonate with most investors. But since you seem to have assumed
that I was data mining (for reasons I can’t fathom) let me explain.
First, I used November dates because I ran the numbers in December and November was
the last month for which I had complete data.
Nov. ’82 thru March 2000 was the tech bubble which had historic returns.
Nov. 1996 thru 2011 was selected simply because it was a 15 year period.
March 2000 – 2011 was from the market top to my latest Nov. ’11 numbers.
March 2003 was an S&P 500 low.
And 30 years was as far back as I cared to go.
I’m solely in the market to make money. To that end, I continually ask myself
if I’m giving it my best effort. I don’t believe that casting my fate to the whims
of the market over the long term would qualify as my best effort.
Therefore, I manage my investments by following market trends.
No forecasting. No projections. No modeling. No expectations.
By the way, I now realize who you remind me of – Sheldon on The Big Bang Theory.
Just kidding.
Keep the faith,
Flack
Comments
Thanks for your explanation of the time periods that you selected for your earlier submittal. I personally do not find them compelling by any stretch, but that's just one investor's opinion. While the timeframes are not random, they are simply examples of the rugged (up and down) landscape of market returns. That is not headline news quality reporting.
You will grow old beyond your biological age waiting for” sympathy points” from me. That’s a loser’s game; please don’t play it. It is not worth the aggravation or stress.
I’m perplexed as to why you seek sympathy from me. By all measures, I respect you as an astute and successful investor. I have so stated in both FA and MFO postings.
I wish I outperformed my portfolio benchmarks for over 15 years consecutively, and had 200 students who faithfully, and profitably, followed my lecture advise as you have reported in several earlier posts. Those are grand accomplishments.
I estimate the likelihood of beating the market for 15 contiguous years at approximately 0.003 % if it is generously assumed that one-half of all investors outperform the equity marketplace each year. That means you are in the rarified atmosphere occupied by only about 2500 lucky investors in the whole United States.
More realistically, if only one-third of the investing public outshines the S&P 500 Index equity market proxy, you are in an even more rarified cohort that numbers only 7 lonely, but extremely wealthy,market wizards destined to become financial legends. Congratulations, once again. Nothing succeeds like success.
While in the military, I had a tough time getting 200 infantrymen to complete a 30 mile forced march hike in some orderly manner under my command. Whatever your current field, you might consider becoming a fully compensated financial advisor.
You do not need my sympathy whatsoever.
On second consideration, I am very happy that you posted your response to my original Off Topic submittal separately in the Fund Discussions section of MFO. This second entry on the subject gave broader audience exposure to our positions, and solicited a much wider and energetic range of responses. That’s good for everyone, especially both for you and me. All of us profit from a polite, well reasoned debate. I enjoyed it; it keeps the mind sharp and enforces some discipline when developing our arguments.
Great fun. Continue the march.
Best Wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2012 and beyond.
MJG
As always, I enjoy our conversations.
You are astute… and no galoot.
You have mentioned several times that you use/watch moving averages.
Would you care to share what moving averages you apply to
what type of investment instruments and for what purpose?
By the way, the next time I try to be funny (as with sympathy points); I’ll let you
know that it was merely an attempt at humor.
Or, you could just lighten up.
(humor)
See how that works?
Carry on,
Flack