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Strong Jobs Move Forward Rate Hike Expectations: The Linkster States No Rate Increase Until 2016

TedTed
in Off-Topic
FYI: ( Even with today's strong jobs report, I may be in the minority, but I'm of the opinion the Fed will not raise rates until early in 2016)
This morning the Employment Situation Report showed one of the strongest months for the jobs market in the United States in over a decade. While headline jobs created (Nonfarm Payrolls) beat expectations but weren't a blowout, there were strong upward revisions to prior months, showing that payroll growth continues to accelerate. The unemployment rate jumped, but did so because the labor force participation rate jumped by 0.2% as Americans surged into the labor force, seeking out higher paying jobs. To that end, average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% month-over-month, coming in at 2.2% year-over-year versus 1.9% expected and a paltry 1.7% year-over-year last month; there were also upward revisions to the prior month's disappointing wages data.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2015/2/6/strong-jobs-move-forward-rate-hike-expectations.html?printerFriendly=true

Comments

  • catch22catch22
    Agree. Too much conflicting data at this time for a rate increase; and the market forces could override a rate increase.
  • JohnChisum
    Didn't Gundlach say something similar?
  • hank
    edited February 2015
    Wrong Sir! - Maybe later in 2015, but coming.
    I wouldn't take a truckload of bonds right now if you drove up to my front door and delivered them.:)
  • JohnChisum
    They might raise rates just to see what happens. Doesn't say much about the Fed.
  • Tampabay
    Total Stk. Market +0.27, my bond funds are +1.36% and +1.54% for one month....
    Should I sell them just in case?
  • CrashCrash
    edited February 2015
    @Tampabay: I wouldn't. My best bond fund over the past month is PREMX, up +2.69% according to Morningstar. Could M* be wrong? More than likely. Reuters says PREMX is up over the past month by 1.25%. And WSJ confirms the Reuters number. Yes, M* IS that screwed up.
  • heezsafe
    Don't think so. January is the worst month of the year for accuracy. And a 0.2% increase in labor participation rate is hardly a "surge," and wouldn't be too hard to achieve with holiday part-timers, given that circa 92M American adults are not working, not looking, and not counted.
    http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
    Downer Debbie, signing off.....
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