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Usually the stock will gain prior to the announcement and then pare back. It looks like it will come out roughly even after the last couple of days of losses.
Future markets including Apple Pay, collaboration with IBM, and (potential) healthcare monitoring could further propel Apple's earning forward. I was surprise by how well iPhone 6 sold in China in the 4th quarter even with the cheaper alternatives available locally.
I own Apple and am certainly pleased with recent performance. I wouldn't add any more, but am not selling and just leaving what I have as a long-term holding. The fact that the iPhone is effectively 65-70% of revenue is concerning to me, but seems like more hints lately about future products.
Apple Pay is not going to move the needle when you look at Apple as a whole, but I think it's done better than I've expected it to and while Apple doesn't get much of every transaction, the fact that they get a % - even a little % - does give that aspect of Apple similar appeal to V/MA. I mean, think about it - Apple doesn't have to go through the massive expense of building out a payment network (and V/MA have already gone through that enormous cost and effort) and they don't have to have the volatility of the business of loaning people money (I mean, look at AXP and DFS during 2008.) They can piggyback on the current networks and get a little cut. They're happy, the CC companies are happy. Retailers not happy but they'll never be.
Given the success of Apple Pay, the Wal-Mart backed CurrentC mobile payment system is - I think - probably not going to even roll out at this point (or I'd be surprised if it did.) If it doesn't, that's a loss for everyone involved with that and another win for not only Apple, but V/MA especially (who seem to be continuing to take share after Amex's loss of Costco yesterday.)
If the retailers were smart, they would have taken the money that that giant group of retailers threw into CurrentC and banded together and taken positions as a coalition in V/MA. If you can't beat them, profit from them.
Even if they had to take a passive stake in V/MA, if all of the retailers who got together to create CurrentC - and a few of whom have spent enormous amounts trying to battle V/MA in court - actually took all that money and bought a passive stake they would have been so much better off.
Retailers have to realize that customers want to use credit cards - rewards, protection. They don't want to use a system (CurrentC) that offers little/no reward and no protection.
On the Costco issue, would Pay make it a moot point as it would be somewhat of a middle man in the payment process? It shouldn't matter what card you have and plus tokenization.
I don't think Costco will accept Apple Pay aside from if somehow they only allow it when it's used with the one card issuer they decide to work with.
They will almost certainly continue to have one card only, as they'll just work a deal with someone else (possibly MA-branded COF card, as they did in Canada?)
"Costco, whose membership-only warehouse chain generates over $100 billion of annual sales, is currently in discussions to formulate a similar relationship with a new partner, people familiar with the matter have said. Among the card-issuing banks in contention are J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., according to those people."
I've been reading some news on the possible Car. The news is still in rumor mode. Everything from batteries to building the entire car is discussed.
My thoughts; Apple will either have Tesla build the car or buy them out. Their battery research and production is the prime target. On the same note, Tesla manufactures their cars at the old NUMMI plant on the East Bay Area. This plant must be way underused. Perhaps Apple would have ideas to utilize the facility better. There has been discussions on bringing production back to the US.
If not the total car then Apple has CarPlay which is relatively a small venture.
AAPL is up another buck and some in the premarket. Today would be day 6 of continuing up days. The bulls are really pushing the stock mainly on the Car news and possible Tesla acquisition.
This week I have noticed a tug of war going on with AAPL. The news that some traders and hedge funds have sold their stakes has me scratching my head. I can see cutting back some but then again I don't manage a fund either. Will these experts regret their decisions later?
This week I have noticed a tug of war going on with AAPL. The news that some traders and hedge funds have sold their stakes has me scratching my head. I can see cutting back some but then again I don't manage a fund either. Will these experts regret their decisions later?
I think there's an aspect of discipline and prudence that some managers continue to display that continues to not work. In this market, I think a lot of managers reach a point where they think it's a reasonable idea to trim holdings/take profits and/or valuation has gotten too high. With Apple it's not a valuation situation as much as I think it became crowded again.
There have been a number of things that I've followed where I thought "that seems fundamentally expensive" in this market, but that doesn't mean it can't keep going. A lot of the consumer names I think are good examples. I thought Costco was too expensive. Kept going. Church and Dwight (CHD) is another - there's a company that's appealing to me, but in terms of valuation it wasn't appealing to me $10 ago and now it's even less so. HAIN is another momentum-y name that continues to trade at valuations that aren't appealing unless it becomes interesting to another, bigger player.
I thought International Flavors and Fragrances (IFF), which is a long-term holding, was expensive and that I'd get another chance to add after the recent quarter. Quarter was somewhat better-than-expected, stock promptly goes from 106-107 to 119. There's so many more examples (VF Corp, FIS, etc etc etc), which is why I honestly have no real ideas (or at least actionable ones) this point. I've decided to not add any more new individual names for a while and focus on what I have, but in terms of what I have in long-term individual names I find few at appealing valuations where I'd like to add.
Biotech actually has some appealing valuations (Gilead, for example), but I already own a lot of it.
With the way that things are, I think there is something to be said for buy-and-hold. You have managers (not wrongly, at least in theory), who have tried to use discipline and it hasn't really worked in this market, you'd have been been better sitting on your hands with the way that things have been.
Or perhaps AAPL became too large a holding for some managers.
This week I have noticed a tug of war going on with AAPL. The news that some traders and hedge funds have sold their stakes has me scratching my head. I can see cutting back some but then again I don't manage a fund either. Will these experts regret their decisions later?
At over $600 a phone Apple (and financial institutions) have created a debt burden on willing consumers that probably will have no significant impact on their overall productivity. I see this device having a greater impact on consuming (Apple Turnover a.k.a. Apple Pay) and creating additional debt than on raising incomes and adding to productivity.
I hope I am wrong because my daughter and her new I-Phone are still on my phone plan.
It all depends on the use of the phone and that applies to any device really. Teenagers making selfie pictures are not productive versus someone who manages projects and uses the phone for comma. Then their is the app universe. For some it stops at the latest game while others use apps in productive ways. (Market monitoring for example)
Comments
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/apples-cash-now-greater-market-cap-these-sp500-companies
Apple Pay is not going to move the needle when you look at Apple as a whole, but I think it's done better than I've expected it to and while Apple doesn't get much of every transaction, the fact that they get a % - even a little % - does give that aspect of Apple similar appeal to V/MA. I mean, think about it - Apple doesn't have to go through the massive expense of building out a payment network (and V/MA have already gone through that enormous cost and effort) and they don't have to have the volatility of the business of loaning people money (I mean, look at AXP and DFS during 2008.) They can piggyback on the current networks and get a little cut. They're happy, the CC companies are happy. Retailers not happy but they'll never be.
Given the success of Apple Pay, the Wal-Mart backed CurrentC mobile payment system is - I think - probably not going to even roll out at this point (or I'd be surprised if it did.) If it doesn't, that's a loss for everyone involved with that and another win for not only Apple, but V/MA especially (who seem to be continuing to take share after Amex's loss of Costco yesterday.)
If the retailers were smart, they would have taken the money that that giant group of retailers threw into CurrentC and banded together and taken positions as a coalition in V/MA. If you can't beat them, profit from them.
Even if they had to take a passive stake in V/MA, if all of the retailers who got together to create CurrentC - and a few of whom have spent enormous amounts trying to battle V/MA in court - actually took all that money and bought a passive stake they would have been so much better off.
Retailers have to realize that customers want to use credit cards - rewards, protection. They don't want to use a system (CurrentC) that offers little/no reward and no protection.
As for Apple, I think healthcare will be big.
http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-is-hiring-experts-in-automotive-technology-and-vehicle-design-2015-2
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102425356
I don't think Costco will accept Apple Pay aside from if somehow they only allow it when it's used with the one card issuer they decide to work with.
They will almost certainly continue to have one card only, as they'll just work a deal with someone else (possibly MA-branded COF card, as they did in Canada?)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/costco-says-split-with-amex-related-to-cost-1423849047
"Costco, whose membership-only warehouse chain generates over $100 billion of annual sales, is currently in discussions to formulate a similar relationship with a new partner, people familiar with the matter have said. Among the card-issuing banks in contention are J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., according to those people."
My thoughts; Apple will either have Tesla build the car or buy them out. Their battery research and production is the prime target. On the same note, Tesla manufactures their cars at the old NUMMI plant on the East Bay Area. This plant must be way underused. Perhaps Apple would have ideas to utilize the facility better. There has been discussions on bringing production back to the US.
If not the total car then Apple has CarPlay which is relatively a small venture.
Regards,
Ted
There have been a number of things that I've followed where I thought "that seems fundamentally expensive" in this market, but that doesn't mean it can't keep going. A lot of the consumer names I think are good examples. I thought Costco was too expensive. Kept going. Church and Dwight (CHD) is another - there's a company that's appealing to me, but in terms of valuation it wasn't appealing to me $10 ago and now it's even less so. HAIN is another momentum-y name that continues to trade at valuations that aren't appealing unless it becomes interesting to another, bigger player.
I thought International Flavors and Fragrances (IFF), which is a long-term holding, was expensive and that I'd get another chance to add after the recent quarter. Quarter was somewhat better-than-expected, stock promptly goes from 106-107 to 119. There's so many more examples (VF Corp, FIS, etc etc etc), which is why I honestly have no real ideas (or at least actionable ones) this point. I've decided to not add any more new individual names for a while and focus on what I have, but in terms of what I have in long-term individual names I find few at appealing valuations where I'd like to add.
Biotech actually has some appealing valuations (Gilead, for example), but I already own a lot of it.
With the way that things are, I think there is something to be said for buy-and-hold. You have managers (not wrongly, at least in theory), who have tried to use discipline and it hasn't really worked in this market, you'd have been been better sitting on your hands with the way that things have been.
Or perhaps AAPL became too large a holding for some managers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-not-worry-samsungs-totally-115605842.html
I hope I am wrong because my daughter and her new I-Phone are still on my phone plan.