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2015? Maybe the U.S. will not be the top performer, maybe rates won't go much lower from here but higher, maybe deflation is not inevitable, and maybe Gundlach will finally be wrong? Diversified emerging markets funds looking good so far this year so may try to build a position with of course a tight leash.
Thanks Scott. RIMIX looks good, available at Scottrade and best of all has no short term redemption fees. I can't buy anything with a short term redemption fee. I will compare its volatility with HIEMX and go with the lower of the two. My junk munis have done well so far in 2015 but...... January is often a tell about the rest of the year and diversified emerging markets have been among the best tell so far this month, albeit the month isn't over yet..
Edit: the one year chart of RIMIX sure looks better than HIEMX.
Knowing you dig through your prospective investment choices; and you are likely aware that some of RIMIX performance for the past year is due to a 26% holding in India. I suspect that the fund still holds this much and perhaps more. I did check the vendor web site for a newer composition mix, but the date is the same as the below Fido link.
With respect to furrin' stuff, SFGIX is my best current performer. I came close to cutting loose from MAPIX due to the dividend issue, but now that's up 2.8% YTD, so looking decent. If they resume dividends will most likely stay with that one too. Of course, using YTD is a purely arbitrary time frame, and essentially meaningless, as shown by a look at the "reversals" in SFGIX, ARTGX, GPROX, and MAPIX since the beginning of this year.
... which was a pretty sorry set of numbers, compared to the US stuff. The foreign stuff comprises about 23% of the portfolio, and in aggregate was up a huge +0.06% last year, and YTD is also +0.06%.
Some days I want to just send all of my money to Ted and let him run with it.
Knowing you dig through your prospective investment choices; and you are likely aware that some of RIMIX performance for the past year is due to a 26% holding in India. I suspect that the fund still holds this much and perhaps more. I did check the vendor web site for a newer composition mix, but the date is the same as the below Fido link.
Thanks catch, yes and still digging. May use three different funds in that category and ones that don't overlap too much in the same holdings. Suddenly junk corporates are on my radar screen again. They have been beat down because of fears of more declines in oil. But what if oil doesn't do as expected? As for Treasuries, if we have seen the bottom in rates, I can point you to the thread that did the trick.
Thanks for posting your take on your asset class of choice for 2015.
My "Big Three" themes that I am concentrating on and increasing my current positions in are in Europe, Emerging Markets and Commodities along with their producers. Why? Because I believe there is good value to be had in these areas; and, they are currenly selling for lower P/E Ratio multiples when compaired to others.
I wish you and all the others MFO members the very best in 2015.
Okay, both of you (Junkster/Old_Skeet) are looking to the emerging market area and I presume in a broadbased manner, not country or area specific, yes? But you are, looking at the better performing funds as of late, and/or the one's that have been beaten down the most in the past year. Is my presumption somewhat correct?
Now, and this has been falling into place for the last year or so; are the currency wars that have come to be in place.
I will use the Euro as a sample; as it has finally started to break its higher price that has been in place for too long (don't know who/what has been giving the support).
One buys fund "x", a Eurozone fund, 3 months ago using $US's. At the time (Oct 23, 2014) the dollar would purchase 1.27 worth of Euro denominated shares. If one were to sell today, the expectation would be selling this Eurozone fund, would be to receive a 1.16 Euro per $US value on the sale. EDIT: Euro now at $1.12 this Friday morning, -2% or so).
Per reference charts, this is the value of the Euro to the $US: (before move to $1.12) ---1 week = -3.3% ---I month = -8% ---3 month = -11.5%
If I were buying foreign/emerging markets funds today; I would have to have strong consideration to currency moves today; moreso than 1 year ago and even moreso than years ago. WisdomTree's hedged etf's would be my first look; although many do not like etf's; I would find this would be the path to travel at this time. I would expect that these fund types have found more money flows recently. DBEU (+4% YTD) and HEDJ (+7.5% YTD) are the first to come to mind, relative to Europe.
I apply the Euro example to also be a consideration for other currencies that are part of the emerging markets countries.
Lastly, isn't it ironic that the U.S. now has some of the highest yields on a 10 year note, globally, especially when adding the safety factor? Excepting the hurting countries; i.e., Russia, Venezuela, (oil and commodity countries). One may make a lot of money, when crude prices rebound; buying Venezuela 10 year bond/notes.
EM is starting to show some life, so there are a lot of ideas out there. It will be interesting to see who makes the right mutual fund call down the road. I'm going to play it down the middle with VWO and add in some PLVDX to see if smart beta is really that smart.
Thanks for posting your take on your asset class of choice for 2015.
My "Big Three" themes that I am concentrating on and increasing my current positions in are in Europe, Emerging Markets and Commodities along with their producers. Why? Because I believe there is good value to be had in these areas; and, they are currenly selling for lower P/E Ratio multiples when compaired to others.
I wish you and all the others MFO members the very best in 2015.
Old_Skeet
Old Skeet, not necessarily my take as I blow with the wind - here today gone tomorrow. At my age, assets, and spending habits my preference going forward would be to be either 100% junk corporates or 100% junk munis or 100% cash. I freed up less than 10% yesterday from my 100% junk munis because I think junk corporates look intriguing (just need more of an upward trend) and always being a believer in the January effect like the diversified emerging markets. Would like to establish positions there and then add (quickly) if indeed they are the place to be in 2015. But I worry about everything, like can U.S. stocks make it seven years in a row or can rates here keep declining.
Indeed currency exchange rates will have some effect on foreign and European returns here, states side, as a strong dollar will be a headwind. I am still with my thoughts to overweight Europe, Diversified Emerging Markets and loading some exposure to commodities, and their producers, for diversification purposes while their prices have been in a decline and have become oversold by my thinking. Where is the absolute bottom? We want know this until the bottom has occurred and prices turn and continue upward. This is why I am following a position cost average approach believing, at some point in time, a rebound will be coming. Anyway, this is how I am currently positioning with a little overweight towards these asset classes within my portfolio while still maintaining an overall well diversified portfolio.
And, as Junkster points out the investment winds can change very quickly. But, this is my thinking as we move into the last week of January. Know there is no gurantee my thinking will turn out to be the correct read but it is the path, at this time, I plan to follow.
we all want to make money, but have different paths as to how to get there. junkster is a momentum player with very tight stops and annual resets. i am in the camp of diversified AA - to make sure at least part of my portfolio works each year and the overall pie slowly crawls ahead. (well, strike 2008, when all parts failed) so my approach is a bit more fundamental.
what we're seeing here is the economic rebalancing from net oil exporters to net oil importers. in such environment a diversified EME offering might not fill the bill, fundamentally speaking. you probably want less russia and latin america and more asia.
but that has already started to occur and those funds being discussed are mostly dedicated to asia. i think the mapix missing 4Q distribution was blown out of proportion - do not dismiss this conservative fund. plus it has some japanese exposure where easing is underway...
i agree that europe might do well, but the falling euro is erasing most of it for a dollar denominated investor (you and me). we need some sort of a hedge... \
au contraire, the much loved US might not do as well. IBM and many others multinationals have stared their whining this reporting quarter re negative consequences of the strong dollar. that might get worse if the Fed indeed starts raising rates, however tiny, later this year.
one more wild thought is - breakevens.. they are way too cheap, so the tips could be a better trade than long treasury at this time.
Comments
Edit: the one year chart of RIMIX sure looks better than HIEMX.
Knowing you dig through your prospective investment choices; and you are likely aware that some of RIMIX performance for the past year is due to a 26% holding in India. I suspect that the fund still holds this much and perhaps more. I did check the vendor web site for a newer composition mix, but the date is the same as the below Fido link.
Fido compostion view as of 9/30/2014.
Take care,
Catch
YTD:
SFGIX 3.4%
WAFMX -1.3%
ARTGX -0.2%
GPROX -0.4%
MAPIX 2.8%
Last year's results:
SFGIX -0.9%
WAFMX 0.6%
ARTGX 3.9%
GPROX 6.4%
MAPIX 0.5%
... which was a pretty sorry set of numbers, compared to the US stuff. The foreign stuff comprises about 23% of the portfolio, and in aggregate was up a huge +0.06% last year, and YTD is also +0.06%.
Some days I want to just send all of my money to Ted and let him run with it.
Thanks for posting your take on your asset class of choice for 2015.
My "Big Three" themes that I am concentrating on and increasing my current positions in are in Europe, Emerging Markets and Commodities along with their producers. Why? Because I believe there is good value to be had in these areas; and, they are currenly selling for lower P/E Ratio multiples when compaired to others.
I wish you and all the others MFO members the very best in 2015.
Old_Skeet
Okay, both of you (Junkster/Old_Skeet) are looking to the emerging market area and I presume in a broadbased manner, not country or area specific, yes? But you are, looking at the better performing funds as of late, and/or the one's that have been beaten down the most in the past year. Is my presumption somewhat correct?
Now, and this has been falling into place for the last year or so; are the currency wars that have come to be in place.
I will use the Euro as a sample; as it has finally started to break its higher price that has been in place for too long (don't know who/what has been giving the support).
One buys fund "x", a Eurozone fund, 3 months ago using $US's. At the time (Oct 23, 2014) the dollar would purchase 1.27 worth of Euro denominated shares. If one were to sell today, the expectation would be selling this Eurozone fund, would be to receive a 1.16 Euro per $US value on the sale. EDIT: Euro now at $1.12 this Friday morning, -2% or so).
Per reference charts, this is the value of the Euro to the $US: (before move to $1.12)
---1 week = -3.3%
---I month = -8%
---3 month = -11.5%
If I were buying foreign/emerging markets funds today; I would have to have strong consideration to currency moves today; moreso than 1 year ago and even moreso than years ago. WisdomTree's hedged etf's would be my first look; although many do not like etf's; I would find this would be the path to travel at this time. I would expect that these fund types have found more money flows recently. DBEU (+4% YTD) and HEDJ (+7.5% YTD) are the first to come to mind, relative to Europe.
I apply the Euro example to also be a consideration for other currencies that are part of the emerging markets countries.
Lastly, isn't it ironic that the U.S. now has some of the highest yields on a 10 year note, globally, especially when adding the safety factor? Excepting the hurting countries; i.e., Russia, Venezuela, (oil and commodity countries). One may make a lot of money, when crude prices rebound; buying Venezuela 10 year bond/notes.
Global 10 year yield data
New money flows at this house may move more into real estate funds; which is currently at about 11% of the total portfolio.
Please let me know if I have "cranial/rectal inversion" in this viewpoint.
Just my 2 cents worth.
Regards,
Ted
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/diversified-emerging-mkts
Indeed currency exchange rates will have some effect on foreign and European returns here, states side, as a strong dollar will be a headwind. I am still with my thoughts to overweight Europe, Diversified Emerging Markets and loading some exposure to commodities, and their producers, for diversification purposes while their prices have been in a decline and have become oversold by my thinking. Where is the absolute bottom? We want know this until the bottom has occurred and prices turn and continue upward. This is why I am following a position cost average approach believing, at some point in time, a rebound will be coming. Anyway, this is how I am currently positioning with a little overweight towards these asset classes within my portfolio while still maintaining an overall well diversified portfolio.
And, as Junkster points out the investment winds can change very quickly. But, this is my thinking as we move into the last week of January. Know there is no gurantee my thinking will turn out to be the correct read but it is the path, at this time, I plan to follow.
Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
we all want to make money, but have different paths as to how to get there. junkster is a momentum player with very tight stops and annual resets. i am in the camp of diversified AA - to make sure at least part of my portfolio works each year and the overall pie slowly crawls ahead. (well, strike 2008, when all parts failed) so my approach is a bit more fundamental.
what we're seeing here is the economic rebalancing from net oil exporters to net oil importers. in such environment a diversified EME offering might not fill the bill, fundamentally speaking. you probably want less russia and latin america and more asia.
but that has already started to occur and those funds being discussed are mostly dedicated to asia. i think the mapix missing 4Q distribution was blown out of proportion - do not dismiss this conservative fund. plus it has some japanese exposure where easing is underway...
i agree that europe might do well, but the falling euro is erasing most of it for a dollar denominated investor (you and me). we need some sort of a hedge... \
au contraire, the much loved US might not do as well. IBM and many others multinationals have stared their whining this reporting quarter re negative consequences of the strong dollar. that might get worse if the Fed indeed starts raising rates, however tiny, later this year.
one more wild thought is - breakevens.. they are way too cheap, so the tips could be a better trade than long treasury at this time.
just some food for thought.
have a wonderful weekend all.