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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Irrational Markets - Proof Positive

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Comments

  • CharlesCharles
    And AIG, Fannie, Freddie...there's still hope. I know.

    My point is that it's always easier after the fact to say a blue chip like company is not going to fail.

    D&C bought Wachovia all the way down I believe. Do you think they were properly assessing whether its fundamentals had changed?

    Beware Hubris.
  • scott
    edited December 2014
    Charles said:

    And AIG, Fannie, Freddie...there's still hope. I know.

    My point is that it's always easier after the fact to say a blue chip like company is not going to fail.

    D&C bought Wachovia all the way down I believe. Do you think they were properly assessing whether its fundamentals had changed?

    Beware Hubris.

    There's also this:

    http://www.morningstar.com/advisor/t/42990829/wamu-s-toll-on-oakmark.htm

    And this:

    http://fortune.com/2011/05/12/eddie-lampert-dementor/ (SHLD is down more than half from when that article was written.)
  • CharlesCharles
    edited December 2014
    So you have to say to yourself, "What's gonna happen in the next 10, 20, 30 years? Do I think the General Electrics, the Sears, the WalMarts, the MicroSofts, the Mercks, the Johnson & Johnsons, the Gillettes, AnheiserBusch, are they going to be making more money 10 years from now, 20 years from now? I think they will."
    Peter Lynch

    Things change =).
  • MarkMark
    Yeah, it's a jungle out there no doubt. Maybe Mr. Buffett is right, put 90% in a S&P 500 fund and the rest in a total bond fund and go live your life.
  • JohnChisum
    "So you have to say to yourself, "What's gonna happen in the next 10, 20, 30 years? Do I think the General Electrics, the Sears, the WalMarts, the MicroSofts, the Mercks, the Johnson & Johnsons, the Gillettes, AnheiserBusch, are they going to be making more money 10 years from now, 20 years from now? I think they will."

    Times do change indeed. Sears is nothing of its former self and has been administered CPR on for a number of years now. Gillette was brought into the Proctor and Gamble family several years ago so they are no longer an individual company.
  • CharlesCharles
    edited December 2014
    So, here's the thing...

    Is Sears SHLD now a value buy? Based on fundamentals? (BB apparently thinks it is.)

    Or, have the fundamentals changed and it is a value trap?

    I suspect that being able to distinguish which is correct, in advance, is key to determining whether you're a good investor...or, you are just another patzer from Brooklyn.
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