Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Great thread, Scott! Lots to think about in these kinds of threads, looking to buy now and in the beginning of 2015. FSENX (large CAP energy stocks) is in a prime position to buy MLP's and small drillers that are heavily debt laden, have land and can be bought on the cheap. There has to be blood before this is over. Also, FNCMX is the only index not to hit new heights. Yet, I was going to go Russel 2000, but John Chisum made a remark concerning Russell 1000.....that got me thinking. So far, this is the 2015 agenda. God bless! Puddn
Recently moved our junk bond position to investment grade. Junk bonds have a fairly large exposure to oil company debt and with oil prices down, there could be more defaults.
Looking for bargains in all the (wrong) Places.....are none...maybe that's a good thing....Oil a little lower..... maybe major oil Co.s with big dividends
I am really conflicted....VGHCX hit a dollar threshold where it's due for a 30% haircut per my established portfolio guidelines. The problem is, it's been on fire and I may look back on this as a foolish and profit limiting re-balancing exercise. I am thinking about just letting the year-end distribution go to cash, and then direct that to the divi payors I had earmarked for the larger allocation.
Frankly, I admit this is not the worst problem to have.
During the month of December I am not doing much of anything concerning adding to or selling any of my current positions. In addition, I am taking most all of my mutual distributions in cash and plan to revisit my portfolio in January to see where the better investment opportunities might exist and how my portfolio’s asset allocation along with the secotors bubble. I am most concerned what the possible effects of a rising interest rate environment might have on some of my investments and, with this, I might be reconfiguring my portfolio somewhat come the first and second quarters of 2015.
I guess, you might say I am watching things closely and will tweak as I feel warranted.
I am really conflicted....VGHCX hit a dollar threshold where it's due for a 30% haircut per my established portfolio guidelines. The problem is, it's been on fire and I may look back on this as a foolish and profit limiting re-balancing exercise. I am thinking about just letting the year-end distribution go to cash, and then direct that to the divi payors I had earmarked for the larger allocation.
Frankly, I admit this is not the worst problem to have.
Nice problem to have. With long term persistent smooth upward momentum (something Junkster would be proud to own) why not monitor for a 20 or 50 day crossovers to the 200dma. No sell signals over this last three years using this method.
Bee, Thanks for posting that link, very interesting, I battle with when to sell too. Right now have a couple of small holdings which are approaching a double and im watching very carefully. Earlier in year sold gilead when I hit 75% profit, sold, then watched it rise another 30%. Because I have health care funds, I have exposure to it, so no biggie. My stock portfolio is much smaller than my fund holdings, which I don, t tend to sell too often, just tweak a bit. But I still vacillate on those stocks now and then.Trust me, not all of my stocks are winnerswhere I have to decide when to sell, have some stocks that have lost too. But so far, winners seem to be outweighing the losers. LOVE YOUR POSTS! Always informative.
No change of heart. I've watched the stock drop what 40% in last three months...? So, got back in couple days ago...but set an additional 6% stop. And, it hit it!
I've actually been looking for chance to get into OXY for a while, cause of stewardship, dividends...I don't believe it cut its dividend even through the 2008 melt down. When it pulled back today, even more than APA, I got in and then rolled over APA. Believe OXY will offer a bit more downside protection while "knives are still falling."
But honestly, I like them all...HES, APA are both great turn-around and activist plays, perhaps even take-over candidates...XOM, well, it's XOM...Buffett likes it .
And all could rocket higher when sentiment turns...and eventually will.
So that is why cash has recently gone for plus twenty percent to about sixteen percent for EVBAX. I am still with this fund as I believe that it's manager, Kathleen Gaffney, has been recently buying plus, no doubt, there have been some redemptions. According to a recent Morningstar's Instant Xray analysis its current asset allocation is about 16% cash, 19% stocks, 42% bonds and 23% other.
I plan to stick around because I feel through a full market cycle this will be a good performing diversified income fund as Ms. Gaffney was trained by the legendary Mr. Dan Fuss and it has the flexibility to roam within a broad spectrum in pursuit of opportunity.
Exchanged PIMIX for PMZIX, added to ETHYX, continued a slow dca into NEXTX, and started a position in QMNNX, AQR's new, mostly quant, market neutral fund. Thought hard about DDG (short oil & gas) (first started tracking it 4 months ago but procrastinated), but didn't bite, thinking most of the upside could be history by now.
Comments
Lots to think about in these kinds of threads, looking to buy now and in the beginning of 2015. FSENX (large CAP energy stocks) is in a prime position to buy MLP's and small drillers that are heavily debt laden, have land and can be bought on the cheap. There has to be blood before this is over. Also, FNCMX is the only index not to hit new heights. Yet, I was going to go Russel 2000, but John Chisum made a remark concerning Russell 1000.....that got me thinking. So far, this is the 2015 agenda.
God bless!
Puddn
Frankly, I admit this is not the worst problem to have.
I guess, you might say I am watching things closely and will tweak as I feel warranted.
Old_Skeet
Here's an article from Seeking Alpha that might be of interest:
no-one-ever-went-broke-taking-profits
Thanks for posting that link, very interesting, I battle with when to sell too. Right now have a couple of small holdings which are approaching a double and im watching very carefully. Earlier in year sold gilead when I hit 75% profit, sold, then watched it rise another 30%. Because I have health care funds, I have exposure to it, so no biggie. My stock portfolio is much smaller than my fund holdings, which I don, t tend to sell too often, just tweak a bit. But I still vacillate on those stocks now and then.Trust me, not all of my stocks are winnerswhere I have to decide when to sell, have some stocks that have lost too. But so far, winners seem to be outweighing the losers. LOVE YOUR POSTS! Always informative.
putting spec money into ACHN, also COG and REXX (very depressed, oversold)
Back into APA.
May do more or less, depending on trend.
OXY. HES. Yes even, XOM.
c
But the whole sector continues to head south.
P.s. bought a little APA today. Bought some AMAG last week.
No change of heart. I've watched the stock drop what 40% in last three months...? So, got back in couple days ago...but set an additional 6% stop. And, it hit it!
I've actually been looking for chance to get into OXY for a while, cause of stewardship, dividends...I don't believe it cut its dividend even through the 2008 melt down. When it pulled back today, even more than APA, I got in and then rolled over APA. Believe OXY will offer a bit more downside protection while "knives are still falling."
But honestly, I like them all...HES, APA are both great turn-around and activist plays, perhaps even take-over candidates...XOM, well, it's XOM...Buffett likes it
And all could rocket higher when sentiment turns...and eventually will.
Wishing us both luck.
As for OXY, doesn't that have a spin-off coming soon? (Nevermind that already happened lol.)
So that is why cash has recently gone for plus twenty percent to about sixteen percent for EVBAX. I am still with this fund as I believe that it's manager, Kathleen Gaffney, has been recently buying plus, no doubt, there have been some redemptions. According to a recent Morningstar's Instant Xray analysis its current asset allocation is about 16% cash, 19% stocks, 42% bonds and 23% other.
I plan to stick around because I feel through a full market cycle this will be a good performing diversified income fund as Ms. Gaffney was trained by the legendary Mr. Dan Fuss and it has the flexibility to roam within a broad spectrum in pursuit of opportunity.
Old_Skeet