What a wild ride! Averages barely move.....my portfolio is crushed. Paper profits going down the drain faster than a warm beer. Next week should be interesting. Things I've thought about or heard about.....in no special order....heard some frackers are laying off.....some of the oil is hedged out (i.e., for loan purposes).....some companies have to produce to pay loans and wells play out so fast. So, my thinking is M&A coming fast, things being sold to raise money that leads me to believe that the big players will be coming in soon to pick up bargains and add reserves. The only good thing is, with winter here, the excuse might get used up faster. The old saying is, "the Bears get Thanksgiving and the Bulls get Christmas." In the end, this should be good for the economy....at least, until springtime. Then I'll get the GT out and help guzzle some cheap gas. Now's the time to start slowly looking for bargains (sssllllloooowwwwllllyyyy!). If I liked it before, I should love it now, right? I'm starting to think Buffett is right about the S&P 500 Index funds 'cause my dumb ass sure can't beat it. But I am worried about deflation more than ever as I look at the world. Too much paper money everywhere....no one will pay anything to you to invest. Have you seen the rates in Europe? You must be kidding me! The old saying is, "when the foreigners come in, you're at the end of the bull, and you get a blow off top!" It sure seems to be setting up that way as we are the last best place to go.
Comments
I enjoy reading your thoughts. I did my month end closing portfolio report Friday evening and I did make a liitle over the past month, about 1%. Since, I run a hybrid type portfolio with neutral asset allocations being set at about 15% cash, 30% bonds, 55% equity I am pleased with my 8.2% ytd return. This compares well by my thinking to the 11.9% return for the S&P 500 Index and 7.9% for the Lipper Balance Index.
My recent entries into SGGDX and JCRAX have not produced the return that I first visioned. However, for all the things and more that you have noted above, in time I feel they will and I plan to continue to build them over time.
Again, thaks for posting your thinking.
Old_Skeet
Our house remains U.S. centric in the equity area, gathering whatever international exposure from the fund holdings. The only direct exception being, GPROX; at this time.
A serious consideration going forward is to maintain VTI / ITOT or similar holding for 40% U.S. equity exposure and PIMIX (our largest bond holding) for bond exposure, also at 40%.
The remaining 20% would be allocated to "other", as determined by market observations. Currently, this would be the healthcare sector. Any of these holdings would be subject to change, not unlike June of 2008, as previously noted. None of the 20% floater money would hold less than 5% in any one area; as too little forward appreciation could likely be the result. This could mean, however; that more than one fund could result in a given market sector.....i.e.; energy; to provide the 5%.
VTI and PIMIX currently have a blended YTD return of 10.55%.
Okay, tis +50 degrees in my part of town and the temps are going downward tonight; so, I must get some work done outside, without the cold fingers effect.
Take care,
Catch
Sorry to hear that.
1. What are you invested in that's being crushed?
2. What kind of time horizon do you have in years?
3. Do you rebalance periodically? If so ... how often?
I suspect that anyone trying to hedge stock market risk with alternative investments is being crushed. While that's typical of bull markets, I'll agree that the divergence between the S&P and most alternatives this year (gold, commodities, shorting stocks, cash & foreign currencies) is unusually large. (Alarmingly so, I think.)
You want "crushed"? Check out these One-Year returns:
HSGFX -9.17%
MFLDX - 9.51%
* BTW - Bonds appear to be an alternative that has worked this year. One example: Price's GNMA fund (PRGMX) is up close to 6% YTD. Let's hope all this exhuberance by investors for large caps and bonds isn't similar to everybody running to the high side of the ship just before it rolls over.
Thanks for any additional details on your investments.....
hank (Member role: Curmudgeon)
Good to hear from you! The two (2) funds you listed I, too, believe will come around. It's all about entry points and time. You and I both know when prices get too low production slows. Then, the good part starts. Up 8.2....that's good. I was doing better 'till last week....I'm now at 7.7% looking to go lower. I'm glad I'm still working 'cause Buffett I'm not. I am tilting more towards indexing and cutting funds. It's just easier, I think, as far as gold's been. Lots of talk about it lately. The sun will shine on it again sometime. Me? I'm buying silver, the poor man's gold. Did I ever tell you what an "expert" is? Ex - has been; (s)pert - drip under pressure. My wife says the reason for so many ex's (women) is 'cause we have spurts under pressure. Who can argue with that? So, the next time an expert says something, it's really giving you another view of them. God bless.
PuddnHead
Energy: it's an overweight time horizon. Well, now, by the look of things, it will be a long time. MLPs is the game. Worked for a while....not so good now. No rebalancing..... core holdings stay. The rest moves on to new things. Where I think things are out of balance and money can be made....looking again at small & the Russell 2000, but, again, what do I know?
Puddnhead
Decidedly non-expert advice here. (Read David's Disclaimer.) Hell - I thought oil was cheap two months ago. Now I can fill-up both the 5.5 gallon can for the snowblower AND the 20 gallon tank on the pickup truck for less money than the truck alone cost 3 months ago. What's not to like?
Regards
Also I was questioning the cost of LP & is export still in the bigger picture ?
Good investing , Derf
On the other hand, diesel in composition is more closely related to heating fuels than gasoline, so it tends to move in seasonal cycles, becoming more expensive in the wintertime as the demand for heating fuel picks up. Hence, (just a guess) you are maybe seeing that the cost of diesel hasn't come down as much as you would expect based on gas prices.
I think you are out on a limb with the comparison to gold and silver - a very long one
Going to lump this together, and I'm on my first cup of coffee, so, please, excuse my babble or wandering. I'm still playing with loose money...thought after this week...I think not. Did I see this coming? Yes. As oil has been falling all year. Did I think it would be this bad this fast.....uh,.....no. Again, I don't think this will last longer than next summer, but it will get much worse 'till then. Being that smaller companies are doing the fracking, the dominoes will fall fast. Deep water will slow a cold winter .... you get my point. As for a time horizon, as Drugy says, "whatever it takes." This is simply over-supply, whether it's corn, beef, iron ore.....it will correct itself. The Russel 2000....my thinking is it's been flat this year. The companies in it do not face as many world problems, and their sales are in the US. And, since we are the best economy...well, you see my point (very little currency impact). As for large caps, I have enough (S&P 500). This is where I expect the rest of the world to come to as well as bonds. I expect a good year for both.....again, just my thinking. What worries me more is another piece of the world is going too slow.....the Middle East. Soon, we will stand alone against deflation. The shining city on the hill with barbarians at the gates. As trumpets sound in the castle keep, horses and men gather. This is one battle we must not lose (this would be the rambling part). God bless!
PuddnHead