Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
FYI: Most investment newsletters are worthless. What’s worse, some are dangerous to your financial health. But a handful are first-rate. Thanks to the work of Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, who has been painstakingly tracking newsletter recommendations for 34 years, it’s possible to separate the gold from the dross. Regards, Ted http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=12993
The first recommendation, the Fidelity Investor: "His five portfolios hold funds an average of 1½ years"
The second recommendation holds funds for 4 yrs, and the third one holds them for only two years.
Those newsletter are Losing a lot of return to capital gains taxes by selling the funds so soon, versus buying and holding a market index fund. And that's not even including the typical annual capital gains distributions from the actively managed funds in the first, second and fourth newsletter.
The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has not had a capital gains distribution in the 10 yrs for which data is available on the website. And since the index investors probably are not regularly switching their fund choices as in newsletters 1, 2 and 4, they have an investment with no capital gains taxes until they themselves decide to sell, which could be many years and in some cases decades. So in a taxable account it's like an IRA, except you have to pay taxes on the dividends.....
I've been a long-term fan of The Chartist Mutual Fund Newsletter. It has often topped Hulbert's risk adjusted ratings (Hulbert's top letters rotate positions as the markets rotate--most of the letters get their day of fame at one time or another).
The Chartist uses an actual cash account (he invests his own funds in a Schwab account, buying and selling the funds recommended in the letter. He makes his own transactions the day after the recommendation so that he doesn't have an advantage over his subscribers). Check out his actual cash results, which I trust more than Hulbert's methodology.
The only problem with newsletters, is that you have to follow the recommendations consistently if you want to get the same results. Not easy to do.
I've been a long-term fan of The Chartist Mutual Fund Newsletter. It has often topped Hulbert's risk adjusted ratings (Hulbert's top letters rotate positions as the markets rotate--most of the letters get their day of fame at one time or another).
The Chartist uses an actual cash account (he invests his own funds in a Schwab account, buying and selling the funds recommended in the letter. He makes his own transactions the day after the recommendation so that he doesn't have an advantage over his subscribers). Check out his actual cash results, which I trust more than Hulbert's methodology.
The only problem with newsletters, is that you have to follow the recommendations consistently if you want to get the same results. Not easy to do.
It might be very difficult to act on The Chartist's (and The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter's) timing moves, because you just have to act on faith in Dan Sullivan. Even Hulbert says he can't figure out how Dan Sullivan comes up with his timing moves. And these moves can be very bold, e.g., sell all equities now, etc......
IIRC, he has made some great and bold timing moves, and also some horrible ones. Will the next one be great or horrible, or something in between?
Any beginners following Vanguard's man Weiner....make good returns over Time 8%+(can't remember exactly-4 portfolios) Good Stuff, little work for $99 year
Comments
The second recommendation holds funds for 4 yrs, and the third one holds them for only two years.
Those newsletter are Losing a lot of return to capital gains taxes by selling the funds so soon, versus buying and holding a market index fund. And that's not even including the typical annual capital gains distributions from the actively managed funds in the first, second and fourth newsletter.
The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund has not had a capital gains distribution in the 10 yrs for which data is available on the website. And since the index investors probably are not regularly switching their fund choices as in newsletters 1, 2 and 4, they have an investment with no capital gains taxes until they themselves decide to sell, which could be many years and in some cases decades. So in a taxable account it's like an IRA, except you have to pay taxes on the dividends.....
The Chartist uses an actual cash account (he invests his own funds in a Schwab account, buying and selling the funds recommended in the letter. He makes his own transactions the day after the recommendation so that he doesn't have an advantage over his subscribers). Check out his actual cash results, which I trust more than Hulbert's methodology.
The only problem with newsletters, is that you have to follow the recommendations consistently if you want to get the same results. Not easy to do.
IIRC, he has made some great and bold timing moves, and also some horrible ones. Will the next one be great or horrible, or something in between?