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Republican wave. Maybe a full tide. I'm going to go vomit now. But Big Money will be happy. I suppose our portfolios will benefit. Of course, many of you others will actually welcome the news. Understood.
Republican wave. Maybe a full tide. I'm going to go vomit now. But Big Money will be happy. I suppose our portfolios will benefit. Of course, many of you others will actually welcome the news. Understood.
It'll just be the same end result of a remarkably unproductive group of politicians. Meet the new politicians, same as the old ones. Given how significant the amount of wins were last night, you'd hope that someone in Washington would take it as a sign that a significant portion of the population is not thrilled with the way things are going, but nah, that's not likely.
If someone can explain to me how this shift in Washington may impact the economy and thereby help me make better investment choices going forward, I'm eager to listen. So I wouldn't close the thread as long as it remains civil. There will be economic impacts. They're likely to play out over months and years, so may not be decipherable to those with 30-day investment horizons. Some possible topics:
-Fiscal policy (federal budget) -Monetary policy (appointments to Federal Reserve) -Military spending -Health care and insurance industries -Tax policies re: fund investors and tax-sheltered accounts -Securities laws/enforcement -Regulation of big business - especially auto and energy sectors
So if anybody can help me sort all this out, I'm all ears. As for just sitting around crying in your beer or arguing about which side is right ... forget it.
I think it will be perceptions rather than actual actions. Republicans tend to favor less regulation on business for example. We won't know for a while if there are any benefits if at all. The next two years will be a political kabuki theater as I like to call it. The one big thing that will get attention is the possible immigration amnesty. That's going to keep the MSM busy for a while.
Lets start with general economic feelings in the market Place. IF people (investors) FEEL things will be better with new leadership, they are more willing to save and invest in THEIR futures. Whether any major Changes in Gov. policy WILL happen is to be seen BUT for now things are looking up and That is for everyone's mutual benefit. (enjoy)SWEEP,SWEEP, Obama cries in His beer Later at a news conference.
If someone can explain to me how this shift in Washington may impact the economy and thereby help me make better investment choices going forward, I'm eager to listen. So I wouldn't close the thread as long as it remains civil. There will be economic impacts. They're likely to play out over months and years, so may not be decipherable to those with 30-day investment horizons. Some possible topics:
So if anybody can help me sort all this out, I'm all ears. As for just sitting around crying in your beer or arguing about which side is right ... forget it.
Some have discussed that this will be a positive for device makers, given that the Republicans may do away with the medical device tax part of Obamacare. Medtronic would be an example of something that will do well as a result.
Energy/oil may do well, as well, although I have doubts that Keystone will happen.
The best part of this election is the Supreme Court's make up will not change while he's in office. He'll write Executive orders until his hand falls off, but these things can be reversed.
@Max: your obvious political and antisemitic diatribes caused me to block you in Morning* forums. i could just wish for the same option here.
@hank: not much will be changed as far as investment consequences. see below analysis:
Based on available results, the 2015 Senate will be made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two Independents; however, Republicans will still be unable to pass legislation without bipartisan approval, as they did not capture a total of 60 seats needed to break a filibuster in the Senate, nor did they capture the 67 votes required to overturn a presidential veto. Our thoughts on a few key issues are below:
• Debt Limit: the Federal debt limit will remain suspended until March 15, 2015, just after the recently elected congress takes their oaths. While this could lead to a heated discussion on the floor over the size of the federal debt, given that many blamed the Republicans for the government shutdown in 2013, an agreement to raise the limit is likely to pass, as the Republicans do not want to be seen as a problem heading into the Presidential election in 2016. • Federal Budget: The Federal Government has been running on a continuing resolution this year after Congress failed to pass a federal budget, and the lame duck congress will likely pass another when the current one expires December 11, 2014. A new federal budget is due in February, and with Republican control in both houses, a full federal budget seems likely to pass. • Taxes: A general consensus has emerged lately that the U.S. tax system, particularly the corporate tax system, needs reform. This idea has been championed by the Republican Party elite and has enough support to potentially build a bipartisan coalition around moderate reform. • Immigration: Immigration reform has been the hot button issue of the campaign season. Just about every candidate has voiced the need for reform in American on this issue, but the diversity of opinions is unlikely to lead to consensus. • Trade: A Republican Congress is likely to be more supportive of trade deals currently under negotiation, such as the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Proposed legislation is also likely to grant the executive branch more authority to pass trade deals without congressional amendments, which should facilitate more international agreements on trade.
The coming legislative season will likely be characterized by partisan gridlock, which makes it very hard for a single party to blindly push through their agenda. However, this political inaction may be a positive for markets, as it limits the number of developments that can catch investors by surprise. Furthermore, the global economy could benefit if the various trade agreements being discussed are passed, as a stronger U.S. dollar should lead to increased demand for foreign goods, providing a tailwind for the global economy, and particularly export-oriented nations. Over the course of 2015, investors will begin to focus on the 2016 Presidential election, and with at least six Senators mulling a run for President, Washington will likely avoid controversial topics. This makes the probability of action in any of the areas where the country needs it small to none, and with few disruptions likely emanating from Washington, the political backdrop for the economy and markets looks set to remain relatively benign.
@fundalarm: criticism of the policies of the State of Israel is not the same thing as antisemitism. Further, the heart and soul of Judaism is to be held in the highest esteem: justice, compassion, equity, liberation. No one is to be ignored. Even the stranger must be cared for.
.....I figured I'd just register my thoughts late last night, and then that would be both the opening and closing of this thread. There have been quite a few thoughtful contributions, up and down the line, though. "Kibuki Theater" perhaps nails it better than anything else. Broadly, we all know that the Republicans favor capital over labor. Markets will rise, for sure--- if only on the tacit principle that further regulations will not be on the way, and regulators, who are anemic, anyhow--- will be expected to simply go back to sleep for a period of time, again.
Comments
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Regards,
Ted
-Fiscal policy (federal budget)
-Monetary policy (appointments to Federal Reserve)
-Military spending
-Health care and insurance industries
-Tax policies re: fund investors and tax-sheltered accounts
-Securities laws/enforcement
-Regulation of big business - especially auto and energy sectors
So if anybody can help me sort all this out, I'm all ears. As for just sitting around crying in your beer or arguing about which side is right ... forget it.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/B1rXRL2CUAACGTr.jpg
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/11/tds-money-is-the-big-winner-of-2014-midterms/print/
Here's Steven:
http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/full-episodes/18xqkt/november-4--2014---andrew-sullivan
Energy/oil may do well, as well, although I have doubts that Keystone will happen.
@hank: not much will be changed as far as investment consequences. see below analysis:
Based on available results, the 2015 Senate will be made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two Independents; however, Republicans will still be unable to pass legislation without bipartisan approval, as they did not capture a total of 60 seats needed to break a filibuster in the Senate, nor did they capture the 67 votes required to overturn a presidential veto. Our thoughts on a few key issues are below:
• Debt Limit: the Federal debt limit will remain suspended until March 15, 2015, just after the recently elected congress takes their oaths. While this could lead to a heated discussion on the floor over the size of the federal debt, given that many blamed the Republicans for the government shutdown in 2013, an agreement to raise the limit is likely to pass, as the Republicans do not want to be seen as a problem heading into the Presidential election in 2016.
• Federal Budget: The Federal Government has been running on a continuing resolution this year after Congress failed to pass a federal budget, and the lame duck congress will likely pass another when the current one expires December 11, 2014. A new federal budget is due in February, and with Republican control in both houses, a full federal budget seems likely to pass.
• Taxes: A general consensus has emerged lately that the U.S. tax system, particularly the corporate tax system, needs reform. This idea has been championed by the Republican Party elite and has enough support to potentially build a bipartisan coalition around moderate reform.
• Immigration: Immigration reform has been the hot button issue of the campaign season. Just about every candidate has voiced the need for reform in American on this issue, but the diversity of opinions is unlikely to lead to consensus.
• Trade: A Republican Congress is likely to be more supportive of trade deals currently under negotiation, such as the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Proposed legislation is also likely to grant the executive branch more authority to pass trade deals without congressional amendments, which should facilitate more international agreements on trade.
The coming legislative season will likely be characterized by partisan gridlock, which makes it very hard for a single party to blindly push through their agenda. However, this political inaction may be a positive for markets, as it limits the number of developments that can catch investors by surprise. Furthermore, the global economy could benefit if the various trade agreements being discussed are passed, as a stronger U.S. dollar should lead to increased demand for foreign goods, providing a tailwind for the global economy, and particularly export-oriented nations. Over the course of 2015, investors will begin to focus on the 2016 Presidential election, and with at least six Senators mulling a run for President, Washington will likely avoid controversial topics. This makes the probability of action in any of the areas where the country needs it small to none, and with few disruptions likely emanating from Washington, the political backdrop for the economy and markets looks set to remain relatively benign.