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Mark Hulbert: A Halloween Treat For The Stock Market
Old_Skeet has already positioned in for the traditional fall stock market rally during October's recent weakness and thus far has a gain on this spiff of about 6.0% thru the 31st.
I Agree things work until they don't. My vaccum cleaner quit on me yesterday ... Got to go get a new one this AM.
With the fall spiff that I reference in the above post ... It is form 2014 not 2015. I am thinking of not making a special spiff this year in the market. From my thinking, stocks are too expensive right now from TTM Price to Earning Ratio as the S&P 500 Index is currently priced at about 21.5 TTM and on forward estimates at 17.1. I am thinking the forward estamtes are too optimistic.
Indeed, welcome back. Although you were only absent a few days, we greatly missed you. I hope your medical problems are being satisfactorily resolved.
The Halloween effect has been embedded in the stock markets almost forever. It is even International in scope and consistency. A terrific comprehensive research paper documents its universality and persistency.
The research was done by Bouman and Jacobsen. The report title is “The Halloween Indicator, Sell in May and Go Away: Another Puzzle”. It certainly drives the point home.
With just a few rare exceptions, the research demonstrates that this solid calendar effect exists for developed, developing, and emerging markets.
Will it survive? Who knows? But it is as firm a line-in-the-sand that exists among long standing Market Axioms. It’s another illustration of the Banana Problem. What is the Banana issue? It’s not knowing where or when to stop.
Sometimes MFO members suffer that malady, but never Ted. He firmly plants his flag solidly in the ground, and never waffles: never any gobbledygook to further confuse often perplexing decisions.
It’s worthwhile to reiterate: welcome back Ted for countless reasons.
Comments
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Derf
I Agree things work until they don't. My vaccum cleaner quit on me yesterday ... Got to go get a new one this AM.
With the fall spiff that I reference in the above post ... It is form 2014 not 2015. I am thinking of not making a special spiff this year in the market. From my thinking, stocks are too expensive right now from TTM Price to Earning Ratio as the S&P 500 Index is currently priced at about 21.5 TTM and on forward estimates at 17.1. I am thinking the forward estamtes are too optimistic.
Old_Skeet
Indeed, welcome back. Although you were only absent a few days, we greatly missed you. I hope your medical problems are being satisfactorily resolved.
The Halloween effect has been embedded in the stock markets almost forever. It is even International in scope and consistency. A terrific comprehensive research paper documents its universality and persistency.
The research was done by Bouman and Jacobsen. The report title is “The Halloween Indicator, Sell in May and Go Away: Another Puzzle”. It certainly drives the point home.
With just a few rare exceptions, the research demonstrates that this solid calendar effect exists for developed, developing, and emerging markets.
Will it survive? Who knows? But it is as firm a line-in-the-sand that exists among long standing Market Axioms. It’s another illustration of the Banana Problem. What is the Banana issue? It’s not knowing where or when to stop.
Sometimes MFO members suffer that malady, but never Ted. He firmly plants his flag solidly in the ground, and never waffles: never any gobbledygook to further confuse often perplexing decisions.
It’s worthwhile to reiterate: welcome back Ted for countless reasons.
My Very Best Wishes.
Derf