Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"The mining stocks benefit from leverage to the metal. As a result, a 2% allocation to precious-metals equities equates to a roughly 5% allocation to bullion"
Doesn't leverage also work in the opposing direction?
My quote would read something like:
"The mining stocks are equally harmed as benefited from leverage to the metal. A PM equity investor has had to endure roughly 2.5 times the volatility compared to bullion"
A $10K investment in VGPMX in 2004 would have grown to $36K by 2008, a 260% gain. Over that same four year period GLD rose to $21.7K or roughly 117%. (The authors claim) of PM equities exhibited beneficial leverage over this timeframe is true, but by 2009 VGPMX valuation fell from its $36k high to a low of $9K, a drop of about 75%. During that same time period GLD's valuation went from $21.7K to $15.8K, a drop of about 25%.
This same dynamic has repeated itself over the last 3.5 years where GLD dropped roughly 33% from its high in April of 2011 while VGPMX dropped close to 66%.
Leverage happens in both directions and often cuts fast and hard on the downside.
it's not just leverage, it's equity premium. if you want to track the price of gold, invest in gold (physical, etn, futures, etc). equities introduce other risks as they correlate with other equities more than with the underlying commodity.
Good points bee, fundalarm, scott. I just posted this in another thread. Wonder if anyone has a comment:
How is anyone going to be a successful investor in gold? Gold peaked at $875/ounce in January 1980. So there was a major run up till that point and people did extremely well. Then it went down in value for 21 years, losing somewhere around 65% on a nominal basis, and probably lost around 90% if you take inflation into account. Then it had a major run up from about 2001 thru 2012, peaking around $1900. Now it's back to $1200.
MFOers, How is anyone supposed to invest in this asset class successfully?
By the way, Alan Greenspan is now saying that it would be good to own gold now!
Comments
Article presents a half truth with this quote:
"The mining stocks benefit from leverage to the metal. As a result, a 2% allocation to precious-metals equities equates to a roughly 5% allocation to bullion"
Doesn't leverage also work in the opposing direction?
My quote would read something like:
"The mining stocks are equally harmed as benefited from leverage to the metal. A PM equity investor has had to endure roughly 2.5 times the volatility compared to bullion"
A $10K investment in VGPMX in 2004 would have grown to $36K by 2008, a 260% gain. Over that same four year period GLD rose to $21.7K or roughly 117%. (The authors claim) of PM equities exhibited beneficial leverage over this timeframe is true, but by 2009 VGPMX valuation fell from its $36k high to a low of $9K, a drop of about 75%. During that same time period GLD's valuation went from $21.7K to $15.8K, a drop of about 25%.
This same dynamic has repeated itself over the last 3.5 years where GLD dropped roughly 33% from its high in April of 2011 while VGPMX dropped close to 66%.
Leverage happens in both directions and often cuts fast and hard on the downside.
I'll also note that, in terms of physical silver/gold, CEF is now trading at a nearly 10% discount to NAV.
I just posted this in another thread. Wonder if anyone has a comment:
How is anyone going to be a successful investor in gold?
Gold peaked at $875/ounce in January 1980. So there was a major run up till that point and people did extremely well.
Then it went down in value for 21 years, losing somewhere around 65% on a nominal basis, and probably lost around 90% if you take inflation into account.
Then it had a major run up from about 2001 thru 2012, peaking around $1900. Now it's back to $1200.
MFOers, How is anyone supposed to invest in this asset class successfully?
By the way, Alan Greenspan is now saying that it would be good to own gold now!