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Thursday the 16th. A less volatile day?

This thread is a running commentary of today's market moves, reports, and surprises.

Futures are somewhat tame so far this morning. They have been on both sides of the fence. Oil prices seem to be hot topic. Energy sector has been clobbered with no end in site. In the meantime, bonds are enjoying the ride.

As part of my profit sweeping, I moved some into TWUSX. by the time I am done I should be between 55-60% equities.

It will be interesting to see how the airline stocks react. The ebola factor is a emotional one. In the US, the other options for travel are less enticing. Greyhound anyone? Trains do have their allure but the time to go cross country is a killer, plus you could probably fly for a much cheaper price.

As I mentioned in another thread, if another ebola affected person pops up, things could get very grim.

All the best to everyone.

Comments

  • Just checked the futures, never mind my comment above. Futures have gone red.

    Dow -151
    SP -18.80
    Nas -42.25
  • edited October 2014
    Yeah, and they literally moved 50 points lower in the span of a few minutes not that long ago.

    Trains are a wonderful way to travel and I love trains in general, but you're still stuck in an enclosed space and for even longer (although admittedly, air not recirculated and it makes stops.) Amtrak isn't actually that expensive but it really depends on how far/where to/from. Amtrak USED to have unbelievable deals on their website for non-refundable tickets, but unfortunately they did away with that.

    Anyways, got a few dividends today, will get a bunch more before month end. Basically, turning into a dividend machine where I get a number of dividends throughout every month has really made days like yesterday much less stressful. I'm not saying this is for everyone, I'm not saying it's the only way to invest, but just for me - yes, yesterday wasn't fun, but I didn't panic and added to a few things. Felt a lot calmer than I would have used to on a day where the market was -450 at one point.

    Days like yesterday are good in a way for the buy and hold investor from the standpoint of it really makes you evaluate how strongly you feel about a position.



  • Dow futures down 178.

    A few years back I had a friend who rode the train from Albany to Seattle. Their ticket was cheap but they didn't have a sleeper. I couldn't do that. They also brought a lot of food on board they had gotten previously. They are one meal each day from the train service so as to have one hot meal.

    First thing we did after picking them up at the station was go to a restaurant for a big meal.
  • edited October 2014
    Some gorgeous scenery on Amtrak that you wouldn't see on the road, but yeah, long stretches in coach are definitely not easy.

    The other issue that people aren't focusing on is the fact that Greece is breaking down (to put it lightly) again.

    Greece:

    https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/522687721488539648/photo/1
  • Re: Greece, everyone's been waiting for the ECB to start scooping up peripheral sovereign debt, and I think they've gotten tired of waiting.

    But Draghi seems to get it, I think the ECB will act soon. If I were a hedge fund, I'd be buying Greek debt.

    The $64 trillion question is if Merkel finally gets that Germany can't keep freeriding on an undervalued euro (for German industry) that gives them an export boom at the rest of the world's expense.
  • Initial jobless claims in at 264,000. With labor participation somewhere in the 60's percentage wise there is nobody left to file a claim. The boomers (myself included) are leaving the work force in droves.

    It didn't have much impact on the futures though.
  • Volatility this morning is remarkable. I'm seeing 50-100 point moves up/down in a matter of a few minutes.
  • Replay of yesterday, looks like. This is getting old...

    image
  • edited October 2014
    energy MLP/pipeline rebound, big time. ETE up big after $60M chairman buy the other day.
  • CNBC had a headline a few minutes ago that the Dow was down 200. The ticker showed -80. Now I just checked again. -134.
  • edited October 2014
    So, during rational times, the market is a forward looking indicator. Having less to do with actual earnings than predicted or the perception of future earnings/economic conditions.

    Not sure these are rational times, but it does seem to help explain the pull back from what I had considered fair value levels, which I know too is a matter of endless debate.

    Just need something to help explain how a company that reports one of best quarters ever, like Alcoa, predicts strong continued growth, receives strong analyst backing/affirmation, etc, etc can still drop.

    I believe too that it's market first, then sector, then company that moves prices. So, even strong companies fall when market has decided to head south.

    Again, just me trying to rationalize what is happening the past month of so.

    Low unemployment, stronger dollar, low energy, supportive fed, strong earnings, available credit, strong balance sheets, low defaults...and yet, we're off 8%.

    Just weird.
  • edited October 2014
    Take yesterday (no on second thought, don't...)

    BAC reports 0.01 per share loss after 0.43 per share DoJ settlement.

    Eventually, that 0.43 expense will disappear, putting BAC in position to earn $1.68 per share per year profit. Which translates to $25 share price at 15 times earnings.

    The company just continues to get stronger and stronger. Moynihan is another CEO now chairman I really like, along with Kleinfeld at Alcoa.

    But the stock dropped nearly 6% to close in $15s.

    I had decided to buy more yesterday if it dropped under $15, which is my last purchase price. Still have that plan in place.

    Just crazy.
  • Charles said:



    Just need something to help explain how a company that reports one of best quarters ever, like Alcoa, predicts strong continued growth, receives strong analyst backing/affirmation, etc, etc can still drop.

    Just weird.

    Was also mentioning the rail car companies, who all talk about huge backlogs and business is great and the stocks have gotten obliterated in the last month.

    I do think there is the question of how much of this is buybacks, as well. I do think if this is the start of a larger downturn it will be revealed fairly quickly which companies took advantage of this period of easy monetary policy smartly to strengthen their balance sheet and diversify their business (among other tactics) and which did not.

  • Someone mentions QE4 and the markets perk right up.
  • edited October 2014

    Someone mentions QE4 and the markets perk right up.

    The market wants its shiny preciousnessss back. It wants it, it neeeeeeds its precious QEEEE...




  • edited October 2014
    The 1850-ish support level (I still don't know where that comes from) has held, T rates are up, and energy (both fossil fuels and renewables) is getting a major bid.

    Wonder what'll happen in the next five minutes.
  • I've decided to swap from CIPSX into HUSIX. CIPSX is low beta and has held up relatively well (down 6.8% YTD); HUSIX I think will be a better fund long term, but is down more (-13.7% YTD), so I've been waiting for this chance.

    It's a way for me to up my beta, keep my powder dry, and reduce the number of small cap funds I have to two (HUSIX and BRUSX.)
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