Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
FYI: Many investors have been hoping for a “healthy” correction to put money to work at lower prices, but corrections never feel healthy when they finally hit. It always feels like this is the big one when losses start to pile up. We start hearing comparisons to the prior peaks in 2000 and 2007 along with some scary stories about the 1987 crash.
An old quote - "The market teaches you to lose." It may not be a 'crash' this time. It may begin as a steep decline and then a slow decline over years. Then there have been periods of trading ranges.
Quoting: "But you can’t plan on a stock market crash every single time stocks fall. Sometimes stocks go down without an enormous crash. Were it not for the occasional correction or bear market, stocks wouldn’t offer a risk premium over bonds and cash.
Plan on seeing stocks fall plenty of times over your lifetime, including the occasional crash."
>>>It's been difficult lately, to take the long-term view. But that's my frame of reference. I've got the world covered, leaving out Latin America, deliberately..... I hate to see the numbers, the last several days. Maybe I should just go fishing and start to think again in terms of YEARS. "I love it when a plan comes together." ---George Peppard. <<<<
Max where have you been most of this year?? Missed your posts. Not sure George Peppard is someone to quote in a topic of taking the long term view as his lifetime was pretty short having passed away at only 66 years old.
Crude crashing in a way that isn't "yay, cheaper prices at the pump" but, "gee, this may be indicating something amatter."
Well with all that's going on right now with Russia/EU/US and the Mideast (much worse crap there than usual, if that's even conceivable) the oil scene right now is sorta like playing 7-card stud with all wild cards.
Russia and the Mideast producers can't really cut production right now, as they need all the income possible to pursue wars and general nastiness. Less demand, same production = lower prices.
If everyone thinks oil is going lower, maybe that means it's near the bottom already? You know, the last bull going bear or whatever.
I'm not making any predictions here but maybe someone who knows technical analysis can comment as to whether the short energy trade is getting crowded?
I don't claim to know technical analysis, but I do use it. However, if you just plot the daily closing price of a representative oil or energy security for the last 2 months, I think you will see that the downward sloping curve shows no signs of bottoming, and is even falling faster now. I found that true with XLE, anyway.
"Yet pros (???) on CNBC said the decline also had everything to do with the abundance of new discoveries found in North America."
Leaving aside what might qualify anyone on CNBC as a "pro", I note that these "pros" failed to point out the self-limiting character of the North American shale production: we are, from current information, getting pretty close to the cutoff point where the price justifies the production. In electronics we call this effect "negative feedback bias". The negative feedback bias reduces the circuit gain; if it exceeds a certain value, the circuit gain is reduced to zero. The idea is to automatically adjust the circuit gain to an optimum desired value. In the oil world, they call that "OPEC".
Giggling, old Joe. Is that anything like the self-created turbulence factor produced by faster and faster prop-driven military fighters----- and so, the only thing to do was to start making JET fighters the new standard? Because the propeller-driven animals simply could not go any faster with propellers powering them?
>>>It's been difficult lately, to take the long-term view. But that's my frame of reference. I've got the world covered, leaving out Latin America, deliberately..... I hate to see the numbers, the last several days. Maybe I should just go fishing and start to think again in terms of YEARS. "I love it when a plan comes together." ---George Peppard. <<<<
Max where have you been most of this year?? Missed your posts. Not sure George Peppard is someone to quote in a topic of taking the long term view as his lifetime was pretty short having passed away at only 66 years old. </p>
Hey, Junkster. I'm just enjoying retirement, at my wife's expense. The summer has been my best ever, in fishing terms. A fabulous and inexpensive hobby! My favorite lake seems to be fished out of big channel catfish. Today I brought home--- for the neighbors--- a couple of pretty big mullet, as big as the cats I'd been catching. Freshwater mullet, aka "white suckers." There's a lotta fight in them, too! http://i853.photobucket.com/albums/ab100/treywheeler/102_0107.jpg
Comments
It may not be a 'crash' this time. It may begin as a steep decline and then a slow decline over years. Then there have been periods of trading ranges.
Plan on seeing stocks fall plenty of times over your lifetime, including the occasional crash."
It's been difficult lately, to take the long-term view. But that's my frame of reference. I've got the world covered, leaving out Latin America, deliberately..... I hate to see the numbers, the last several days. Maybe I should just go fishing and start to think again in terms of YEARS. "I love it when a plan comes together." ---George Peppard.
Fishing results: https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/10628570_10202606813880871_8137407407218187508_n.jpg?oh=8eaad4dbfee36c6483e3f21ffb6c55be&oe=54AE224A
Max where have you been most of this year?? Missed your posts. Not sure George Peppard is someone to quote in a topic of taking the long term view as his lifetime was pretty short having passed away at only 66 years old.
Russia and the Mideast producers can't really cut production right now, as they need all the income possible to pursue wars and general nastiness. Less demand, same production = lower prices.
I'm not making any predictions here but maybe someone who knows technical analysis can comment as to whether the short energy trade is getting crowded?
I don't claim to know technical analysis, but I do use it. However, if you just plot the daily closing price of a representative oil or energy security for the last 2 months, I think you will see that the downward sloping curve shows no signs of bottoming, and is even falling faster now. I found that true with XLE, anyway.
Tony
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102087319
I remember the last time oil prices affected the US economy in a big way, only that they went up big time instead of down due to the embargo.
Leaving aside what might qualify anyone on CNBC as a "pro", I note that these "pros" failed to point out the self-limiting character of the North American shale production: we are, from current information, getting pretty close to the cutoff point where the price justifies the production. In electronics we call this effect "negative feedback bias". The negative feedback bias reduces the circuit gain; if it exceeds a certain value, the circuit gain is reduced to zero. The idea is to automatically adjust the circuit gain to an optimum desired value. In the oil world, they call that "OPEC".
http://i853.photobucket.com/albums/ab100/treywheeler/102_0107.jpg