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one piece of green today, VNQ. Got stopped out of two stocks, preserving some profits and limited a loss on the other. Tomorrow may be up just as much. Hang on, its going to be a bumpy ride.
You own your best ideas. You own things that, on a day like this, aren't going to tempt you to hit the sell button and you consider buying more of. You own things that pay dividends and just reinvest through periods like this. All you can do, really.
I do think oil is acting badly to the point where it makes me concerned that it is signaling a real slowdown. Some oil names are really quite reasonably valued at this point, but I would strongly suggest owning the biggest and highest quality - I do think if oil goes much lower, you will see the smaller, more heavily indebted companies have real trouble.
AAPL went against the grain and closed up. The way this market is acting it seems disconnected from the everyday business and is on its own. These volatility spikes remind me of ventricular fibrillation (v-fib) of the heart which is not good. Looking at a chart it does look like we are trending down.
Thanks, both of you. It's just the idea that, you own your best ideas. Everyone's best ideas are different and that's great. Everyone invests differently.
If you own anything that you picked up on a whim, it's inevitably going to be the first thing that tempts you to hit the sell button during times like this. I don't always agree with Buffett, but as I've said before, I do think the "What would you own if the market was closed for 10 years" is a good filter to run ideas through, even say 5 years instead of 10. I don't even think about many of the things I own on a day-to-day from the standpoint of I'm not selling and am happy to collect dividends at lower levels, including a number of monthly div payers. It's not that I like days like yesterday, but it's either I'm going to throw up my portfolio or I'm just going to stay with what I want to own and reinvest and not try and time the market and trade in and out, which is something I've grown tired of doing.
If you can be a trader and trade in and out of days like these, then go forth and do it. That's awesome. Otherwise, for people who don't want to do that, you own what you feel most strongly about and things that pay dividends. People talk about worries regarding income-related investments and rising rates...I just think the idea of rising rates may start moving further and further into the distance. I own a lot of income-related investments (REITs, MLPs) and just continue to reinvest and buy more when the threat of rising rates brings these down a bit - as an example, the "taper tantrum" was an excellent REIT buying opportunity.
I am concerned about the mentality that I'm seeing in the market. While some things are down quite a bit more, the broader market is down 5%, but the reaction is to the level that would have been seen if the market was down 15-20% years ago. All of the QE and ZIRP of the last 5+ years have created a market where people (not here, but on the media and elsewhere) act like the market moves of the last week are apocalyptic. Yes, it's the media, but there's this mentality when the market is down 300 that almost seems genuinely like, "Wait, that's not supposed to happen."
If anything, weeks like these are good from the standpoint of they make you stop and reflect on your investments and see if your risk tolerance really matches the risk you have in play. If you want to sell, sell, but sell with a thesis as to why, don't sell because the last few days have been unpleasant and volatile.
As I mentioned earlier, oil (which looks like it may move closer to 80) is also worrying.
Comments
I do think oil is acting badly to the point where it makes me concerned that it is signaling a real slowdown. Some oil names are really quite reasonably valued at this point, but I would strongly suggest owning the biggest and highest quality - I do think if oil goes much lower, you will see the smaller, more heavily indebted companies have real trouble.
https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10375120_10202606813120852_1666174007428722728_n.jpg?oh=cb3340a7c927fca97fe17a0660f23aaa&oe=54B4CC02
Australia in particular is hard hit because China just restarted tariffs on imported coal.
If you own anything that you picked up on a whim, it's inevitably going to be the first thing that tempts you to hit the sell button during times like this. I don't always agree with Buffett, but as I've said before, I do think the "What would you own if the market was closed for 10 years" is a good filter to run ideas through, even say 5 years instead of 10. I don't even think about many of the things I own on a day-to-day from the standpoint of I'm not selling and am happy to collect dividends at lower levels, including a number of monthly div payers. It's not that I like days like yesterday, but it's either I'm going to throw up my portfolio or I'm just going to stay with what I want to own and reinvest and not try and time the market and trade in and out, which is something I've grown tired of doing.
If you can be a trader and trade in and out of days like these, then go forth and do it. That's awesome. Otherwise, for people who don't want to do that, you own what you feel most strongly about and things that pay dividends. People talk about worries regarding income-related investments and rising rates...I just think the idea of rising rates may start moving further and further into the distance. I own a lot of income-related investments (REITs, MLPs) and just continue to reinvest and buy more when the threat of rising rates brings these down a bit - as an example, the "taper tantrum" was an excellent REIT buying opportunity.
I am concerned about the mentality that I'm seeing in the market. While some things are down quite a bit more, the broader market is down 5%, but the reaction is to the level that would have been seen if the market was down 15-20% years ago. All of the QE and ZIRP of the last 5+ years have created a market where people (not here, but on the media and elsewhere) act like the market moves of the last week are apocalyptic. Yes, it's the media, but there's this mentality when the market is down 300 that almost seems genuinely like, "Wait, that's not supposed to happen."
If anything, weeks like these are good from the standpoint of they make you stop and reflect on your investments and see if your risk tolerance really matches the risk you have in play. If you want to sell, sell, but sell with a thesis as to why, don't sell because the last few days have been unpleasant and volatile.
As I mentioned earlier, oil (which looks like it may move closer to 80) is also worrying.