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Up every month in 2014 and off to a good start in October

JunksterJunkster
in Fund Discussions
Yes, of course the junk open end munis. Surprised there hasn't been a bigger bandwagon for junk munis here. Probably a good thing though. I've been harping on junk munis since January and so as not to come across as a zealot, won't mention them again. Funny thing about zealots. Whatever they endlessly preach about - be it a particular fund or asset class such as gold/ silver or whatever - it eventually comes back to bite them. They then seem to fade away or worse, become a zealot about something else. The worse kind of zealots are those who don't let go, even after the object of their affection vaporizes their capital.

Definition of Zealot - A person who has very strong feelings about something and wants other people to have those same feelings.

Comments

  • CharlesCharles
    Congrats Junkster.

    Please never stop trying to enlighten the herd =).

    Hope all is well.

    c
  • heezsafe
    @Junkster
    Yeah, well, mind that channel. Last time I took a glance, it was narrowing (or is it? it's hard to tell).:)
    Junk munis a fickle lover be.
    The lack of attractive alternatives could dupe you into staying too long, ya know?
  • JunksterJunkster
    edited October 2014
    heezsafe said:

    @Junkster
    Yeah, well, mind that channel. Last time I took a glance, it was narrowing (or is it? it's hard to tell).:)
    Junk munis a fickle lover be.
    The lack of attractive alternatives could dupe you into staying too long, ya know?

    I am hoping I have to pay off my wager to you if Treasuries close at 2%. A narrowing channel? With new YTD highs on multiple occasions recently in EIHYX/ABTYX/NHMRX among others? As for "staying too long, ya know" you obviously haven't a clue how I trade/invest as I never ever overstay a position when the tide turns as dictated by price. I will be gone before these things react by 1.25% to 1.50% maybe even less. EIHYX hasn't so much had even a 1% decline YTD on its march higher. Big price declines begin by small price declines. I fall in love with nothing in this "fickle" game, least of all my opinions. At the beginning of the year I was looking for rising rates and thought the place to be was floating rate/ bank loan funds
    ala HFRZX. Look where that bright opinion would have gotten me.

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/34371/#Comment_34371
  • MikeMMikeM
    Thanks Junkster. I've been in PZA for a while. I know you prefer the funds. Figured I could get in and out of PZA easier then a mutual fund, but still using your method with a stop set at 2% from recent high.
  • JunksterJunkster
    edited October 2014
    Mike, PZA has been a dandy closed end muni fund, a picture perfect tight rising channel and its YTD return of 13.67% is far ahead of the other investment grade muni funds and not far behind the 15%+ return of the big three in the open end junk space - EIHYX, ABTYX, and NHMRX. PZA is ahead of HYD, the junk ETF and close to HYMB the other junk ETF. As far as getting out easier, someday should talk about the one day lag effect with the open end vs. the ETFs and closed end. 2% looks OK albeit at this stage in my life and nest egg I use smaller stops. But then I scamper back in pretty quickly if proven wrong. By the way, you know this as well as anyone, but the dynasty appears in shambles and the Bills have as much chance as anyone in that division.

    As an aside, I got an email today from a friend who is almost as heavy as me in open end junk munis. He pretty much told me to STFU. His point, and a good one, is except for munis and maybe non residential MBS, much of Bondville from corporate junk to emerging market debt, to investment grade looks to have topped. The jury is still out on Treasuries. His point is munis and junk munis could well be next in line in this stealth top in bonds so lets enjoy the ride with as few on as possible. I think what he was trying to say is the more we talk about our winners and what is working, the more likely we are about to experience an immediate drawdown. I completely agree and that is a superstition I have discussed many times in the past. So will quit posting until 1/1/15. I won't be reading the forum until then so anyone can contact me at my email of

    [email protected]
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