Hello all!
So I've been using VFIFX as a "very rough proxy" for allocation decisions for my fiancé and my retirement portfolios and we are in a running debate about whether or not it is worth holding 10% in bonds like they do and what type of bonds. Not really planning on moving anything until December, but planning ahead right now.
My general opinion is that it's worth holding 10-15% in bonds if only for the diversification benefits and having a less-correlated/safer haven to reallocate money out of in the event of a major correction. Her argument is that we're young (28 & 29) and don't need to allocate to conservative holdings since it won't matter in the long run. I thought I'd ask for your collective thoughts on various strategies.
Comments
RNOTX, RNDLX, ARTFX - because we're young and while these might be volatile/riskier thats fine.
OSTIX, EVBAX - why make allocation decisions myself when these guys look like they do it well.
FTBFX - the most convenient low-cost fund for us
RSIVX - stabler ballast, but still with growth
DLTNX - solid core, where our current bond money is.
Pass on them all?
The link above has been bandied about here recently. Scroll down to the end for a visual of the 20 year annualized returns of various equity and bond sectors. At your very young ages, it would seem to be a no brainer to invest that 10% to 15% entirely in an emerging markets bond fund and/or a high yield junk corporate bond fund.
As an aside, I put one of my ex-girl friends' ultra conservative accounts entirely in T Rowe Price's high yield bond fund (PRHYX) before we broke up in 1992. I was shocked to learn recently she hasn't touched that account since and she has been pleased as punch. She would have been even more than pleased had I put her in PREMX, Price's emerging markets bond fund which has far surpassed even the S&P (albeit not sure that was even around in 92) I put her in the junk fund because being very risk adverse, junk funds are most noted for their risk adjusted returns.
Edit: Nothing wrong with where you are at in VFIFX at your ages either. Not sure I have seen many in-deph discussions on target funds for the young on this board being it is skewed a bit to the old timers.
Edit: I'd guess MAINX counts to this idea too.
Great fund. MAINX a good fund but too stodgy for my tastes and not in the emerging markets bond category. Over the past 3 and 5 years junk corporates have outperformed their emerging markets counterparts but the later shined over the past 20 years. I always worry though and one fear is the great bond rally in so many sectors that has been running for decades may someday come to an abrupt end. But then we have been hearing that for awhile now and demographics may provide more of a tailwind than some of the bond bears suspect. Good luck and enjoy the long years of life you have ahead of you. I lead hikes in my local area over the winter and have lots of 20 and 30 somethings in my group. Real refreshing people to hang around.
St. John Bogle says Social Security is your bond fund.
Check the ER of your bond funds against yearly return and quit investing like a geezer (unless you have some chronic illness or a bad genome - I think you can get your DNA sequenced for less than a grand now, so it might be a good investment or cost you the XX, if the results are bad).
I do like the EM bonds, tho, but most of your bond funds are for geriatrics. We pay 20 to 40% of our return in expenses for security, which you don't need unless you will really pull the trigger and sell them all and buy stocks at the next correction, if you recognize it in time. Those funds are for fifty-somethings.
High yield with a low ER is probably OK, but they act like stocks in the crash, but recovered faster last time. (Of course, if you are in them, you might have trouble making yourself sell after a loss to buy stocks.)
If I had known at 30 what I know now....
But I didn't.
Now, I'd either sequence my genome (or not, if that's too deterministic), invest in a total US stock index for 50%, non-US world index for 30%, EM (probably managed funds) for 10%, and allow myself 10% to chase fads. If you believe that small caps add value, you can adjust the recommendations by 5 -10% in the first 2 categories, but the ER increases. 15 to 20 years from retirement, I'd start looking at bonds in moderation, but you might be so rich by then that it wouldn't matter.
Be sure you marry the girl.
It is an emerging market bond fund, focused to Asia of course. Perhaps I misunderstood something in your comment.
I hold MAINX as a small portion of my portfolio. It has done well though not as good as the high yield universe. I have some of that as well. We all invest in what we are comfortable with.
All the best.
On that note, I've always been bond challenged, but in my 401k I continue to hold some PTTRX. It would seem Bill Gross is officially no longer the bond expert according to recent press. I never thought that would happen. Bill Miller I think has remained the equity expert on the other hand. Time will tell which was the right celebrity call by the financial pron industry.
You could pick actively managed bond funds that at times are correlated with stocks, but fairly weakly correlated, and therefore own a healthy stake in bonds as a diversifier without a lot of opportunity cost. Among the funds you list, I think RNDLX/RNSIX would work well, plus say PIMIX.
As far as high yield goes, I haven't owned ARTFX yet, but that would be my choice for the sector due to B. Krug's history as a top manager. (I just sold the last of my only HY fund, MSYPX.LW, but when HY looks better, it'll be ARTFX for me.) In your portfolio, of course, any HY (other than short term, like RSIIX and OSTIX) would be just a different way to play equity/credit risk.
FWIW, AJ
As for DNA sequencing I have some family involved in the business so it's been done. I'm a bit special, but not enough to worry about an early death.
And yes, I shall marry the hell out of the girl.
@AndyJ Agreed about ARTFX and high yield in general, makes an EM bond fund seem maybe a better play for diversity.
@Junkster Hiking in the Sierras is one of our favorite weekend past times. Thank you for the good wishes.
jlev, before you were born I lived in the Reno/Tahoe area and did a lot of hiking and backpacking in the Sierras, primarily around Bridgeport and the Sawtooth Range/Matterhorn Peak as well as the Hoover Wilderness area. Loved the waterfalls in and around Lundy Canyon. I still plan on hiking out there again before I pass on.
I'm only parroting what I read several years ago: 10-15% bonds in a portfolio will not produce significant protection, since the percentage is too small. Made sense to me then, and now. (This begs the question whether a 29 y.o. needs portfolio protection.) If you have ongoing contributions, you are averaging in when the market is down as well as when it is up. You might be better advised at your age to park some money in cash and watch for the decline (like when ARIVX is fully invested, you'll only be a little bit late.)
With 20 years to go before I'd start buying bonds or bond funds (if I were your age), presuming 35 - 40 years until retirement, and presuming that new money would go into bonds at that time, the stock funds, stock ETFs, or stocks you buy now would have had a run of 30 to 40 years when you retire, if you can keep your hands off the trading icon (except for the individual stocks - I'd watch [or avoid] those). Since few managements are stable over that period of time, index funds are appropriate.
You are paying a significant portion of bond fund gains in ER currently. Looking at my bond fund purchases (all recommended at MFO, which include some of your choices) in the past 2 years, I find minimal gain and some losses, aside from the River Park funds, where I am paying about 20-25% of my gains in ER. (I regard those as geezer funds, btw.)
Since I doubt most currently successful bond funds will have the same management in 20 or 30 years, I have no recommendations. The big companies, such as Fido and Vanguard, can buy brains; smaller funds are a crap shoot. If you want shorter term recommendations, you have many above.
I assume you have read William Bernstein. If not, check him out. I
don't anticipate participating further in this topic.