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Seeking Alpha: There Is Very Little Chance Of Beatting A Balanced Portfolio From Here
In the below linked article form Seeking Alpha a summary of its major points are listed below:
•This is now the 4th longest bull market in history. We're in the 2nd longest period without a 10% correction. Every day, we get closer to the next correction. •A re-balanced growth portfolio that holds a modest 25-35% bond component offers the likelihood of delivering stock market like gains (or better) with a much lower risk profile. •The risk return proposition is likely swinging in favor of a balanced portfolio.
Looks at his bulls. Good thing we had the three dips as and when we did, or he would have to be writing an article about a bull market from 1974 to the present. Wait, what does that mean?
•This is now the 4th longest bull market in history. We're in the 2nd longest period without a 10% correction. Every day, we get closer to the next correction.
"The bubble probably needs to continue in order to sustain the current global financial system and the necessary future deleveraging. However with yields moving ever lower in many parts of the world in recent times, partly due to weak growth, and with debt levels still moving higher, the chances are that most government bondholders are unlikely to achieve a positive real return over the medium to long-term from this starting point. Inflation or even the risk of sovereign restructuring will likely prevent this."
I confess I agree with the article .Market timing sure should not mean move 100% to cash or stocks . The record makes clear no one is good at that.Instead move from growth at this time to moderate allocation. If the move is wrong you will make money but not as much. If the move is right you will probably lose money but less. If ever there was a time for such a strategy, at this time high prices for stocks and bonds makes it seem prudent even if it is not correct/
I too, found the article of interest. It seems I have been doing much as to what the article's focus directs as I am heavy in my cash area, light in my income area, light in my growth & income area but heavy in my growth area of my portfolio from its target allocation. Currently, I am about 20% cash, 25% income, 30% growth & income and 25% growth. I'll put some of the cash to work "when" the pull back comes. And, I believe it will be coming as it is now boils down to just a question of "when" will it arrive? Answer, When you least expect it!
Comments
Looks at his bulls. Good thing we had the three dips as and when we did, or he would have to be writing an article about a bull market from 1974 to the present. Wait, what does that mean?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-10/deutsche-bank-bubble-must-go-sustain-current-global-financial-system
I too, found the article of interest. It seems I have been doing much as to what the article's focus directs as I am heavy in my cash area, light in my income area, light in my growth & income area but heavy in my growth area of my portfolio from its target allocation. Currently, I am about 20% cash, 25% income, 30% growth & income and 25% growth. I'll put some of the cash to work "when" the pull back comes. And, I believe it will be coming as it is now boils down to just a question of "when" will it arrive? Answer, When you least expect it!
With this, Old_Skeet plans to keep on keeping-on.