FYI: Investors are worried about rising interest rates, and yet rates are lower than at year-end 2013. Folks fret that stocks are overvalued, and yet the broad U.S. market is up for 2014, despite the recent turmoil.
We are, alas, constantly blindsided by the markets. We don't know what economic and political developments will hit us next. We can't be sure how other investors will react to these developments. And—let's be honest—our own thinking is often less than rational.
Regards,
Ted
http://online.wsj.com/articles/keeping-your-portfolio-on-track-for-the-long-term-1407632226#printMode
Comments
I am a Jonathan Clements fan. I like both his low-keyed writing style and his equally low-keyed, noninvasive financial wisdom. He has long advocated for a long-term investing program.
It’s intriguing how most business writers favor a short list of guiding principles. Perhaps that better fits their allocated space constraints; perhaps they really believe that, although it’s never easy, investing is truly simple. Whatever the motivation, three reasons seem to be a happy compromise.
Jonathan Clements is a very conservative investor; Ken Fisher is definitely an aggressive sort. Yet both gentlemen commend a three question format to aid investment decision making. Given the divergent investment philosophies of these two industry giants, it is informative to summarize and compare each wizards three question array.
The Englishman’s three questions are: (1) What information or insights do I have, that others don’t, to make me think I can outsmart the market?, (2) What can I confidently say about investing?, and (3) If I were starting today from scratch, would I buy the portfolio I currently own?
The Californian’s three questions from his 2007 book of that same title are: (1) What do you believe that is actually false?, (2) What can you fathom that others find unfathomable?, and (3) What the heck is my brain doing to blindside me now?
One obvious difference is that Clements posed and answered these 3 questions in a single Wall Street Journal article; Fisher postulated and answered his similar questions in a book of over 400 pages. The length differential aside, both offer solid investment wisdom.
In somewhat indirect ways, both challenge our investment knowledge base and decision making process. We don’t really know as much as we think we do. Also, both believe that some special insights beyond what the “typical” investor perceives are needed to separate one away from average-like returns. Given his long standing working relationship with behavioral researcher Meir Statman, Fisher more forcefully expounds on our mind games that subtract from the likelihood of our investment success odds.
In the end, both market experts emphasize that if the advantages gained from positively answering these three salient questions are not present when investment decision time is approaching, the default option should be a passive, Index portfolio. I expected that endorsement from Clements; I did not expect that assessment from Fisher.
Both Clements and Fisher strongly support long-term financial planning and a long-term investment portfolio. Change should be made infrequently with patience and persistence as the guiding watchwords.
Given that meaningful and consistent financial advice, I am often puzzled and somewhat saddened by the far too frequent MFO postings that challenge day-to-day mutual fund performance. It is troublesome that folks who wisely elected to pursue the mutual fund route in designing their portfolios are swayed to reevaluate their positions based on some unsettling, singular daily outcome. Mutual funds were not invented to accommodate that type of trading schedule.
As a sidebar, I only disagree with Sven’s post in degree. It is not “sometimes” better to take the long view when investing. It is “always” better to do so.
As usual, it is informative to read a Clements’ column. I was just a little surprised at how snugly Clements’ three questions dovetailed into the three similar questions asked in Fisher’s excellent book. I recommend both sources.
Best Wishes.