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I recently sold three funds (a small cap fund, a commodity fund and a long/short fund) with the sale proceeds increasing my cash allocation. I plan to average this money back in into a few existing positions and perhaps add a few new funds one of them perhaps being SHRAX which is one that Ted has touted. I am in no hurry to do this though as I "feel" a market down draft coming. Perhaps when my portfolio drops to about five percent off its 52 week high water mark I'll consider selling some more equity off. Currently, it is down about 2.9% from its 52 week high and lost 1.8% last week while the 500 Index is down about 3.2% from its high water mark and lost 2.7% last week.
I am in no rush either way ... Got plenty of cash to buy the pull back ... and, if it turns upward I still have plenty invested to enjoy the upward ride. At this point, I am definitely not running for an equity exit.
Know there are those that have to write articles that are geared towards investor emotions. My thoughts are to be prudent and do what you feel is best for you. Don't sell out just because of an article ... watch the price action of the market and then govern accordingly with a planned sell down strategy should prices continue to drop. And, they may as I feel some are already getting margin calls and this could cause some additional selling presure in the market. It no doubt is highly leveraged up from my thinking and is overbought.
For those that would like to check the short interest and the days to cover for the S&P 500 Index the link below will provide that information. Perhaps as the short interest along with the days to cover drop this might be an indicator that the Index is becoming more fairly valued. The past week Morningstar's Fair Market Valuation Graph indicated that the market started the week being about three percent overvalued and closed the week by only being about one percent overvalued. So perhaps, the pull back might not be as deep as some are broadcasting.
Hulbert will quote anyone to spin out yet another "article". The three indicators are subjective anyway. I for one do not consider the overall market to be overvalued. Plenty of blue chip dividend stocks have p/es in the low teens. My mutual fund has a p/e of 15. And according to M* the Russell 2000 p/e is under 20. So where are these lofty valuations?
Also it should be mentioned that the US energy picture is the brightest that it has been for many years. Which is a boost for the economy and markets.
Because he is fairly heavily data-driven? I think his whole point is few thoughts of his own, just lots of research. Rightly or wrongly, he is much more empirical than most 'aggregative' columnists.
Comments
I recently sold three funds (a small cap fund, a commodity fund and a long/short fund) with the sale proceeds increasing my cash allocation. I plan to average this money back in into a few existing positions and perhaps add a few new funds one of them perhaps being SHRAX which is one that Ted has touted. I am in no hurry to do this though as I "feel" a market down draft coming. Perhaps when my portfolio drops to about five percent off its 52 week high water mark I'll consider selling some more equity off. Currently, it is down about 2.9% from its 52 week high and lost 1.8% last week while the 500 Index is down about 3.2% from its high water mark and lost 2.7% last week.
I am in no rush either way ... Got plenty of cash to buy the pull back ... and, if it turns upward I still have plenty invested to enjoy the upward ride. At this point, I am definitely not running for an equity exit.
Know there are those that have to write articles that are geared towards investor emotions. My thoughts are to be prudent and do what you feel is best for you. Don't sell out just because of an article ... watch the price action of the market and then govern accordingly with a planned sell down strategy should prices continue to drop. And, they may as I feel some are already getting margin calls and this could cause some additional selling presure in the market. It no doubt is highly leveraged up from my thinking and is overbought.
For those that would like to check the short interest and the days to cover for the S&P 500 Index the link below will provide that information. Perhaps as the short interest along with the days to cover drop this might be an indicator that the Index is becoming more fairly valued. The past week Morningstar's Fair Market Valuation Graph indicated that the market started the week being about three percent overvalued and closed the week by only being about one percent overvalued. So perhaps, the pull back might not be as deep as some are broadcasting.
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=spy&submit=Short+Quote
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Also it should be mentioned that the US energy picture is the brightest that it has been for many years. Which is a boost for the economy and markets.