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Blackstone's Byron Wein: Why S&P 500 Could Hit 2300 This Year: A Man After My Own Heart
#Fed says it will keep rates low even after employment & inflation meet targets. That says it all! 1:58 PM - 30 Jul 2014
July 30 2014 Despite a disconcerting, growing consensus among investors, the likelihood of a sudden increase in U.S. interest rates is fairly remote for now. Global CIO Commentary by Scott Minerd Most investors can agree that loose monetary policy and quantitative easing have caused overvaluation in some spheres of U.S. credit. Even Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said that some leveraged credit is showing signs of frothiness. But the palpable fear that the Fed’s eventual hiking of short-term interest rates will prompt a general upward shock in interest rates and an abrupt repricing of credit risk and U.S. Treasuries is getting overplayed and too much attention. The reality is that with international demand for U.S. Treasuries likely to increase and the size of incremental U.S. government borrowing expected to decline because of shrinking federal budget deficits, U.S. Treasury yields could move lower.
The likelihood that we are going to have a sudden, ugly increase in interest rates seems fairly remote for now. As for the long-run, well, the consensus view of interest rates normalizing will eventually come true. The problem with that thinking may lie in the definition of "long-run." As John Maynard Keynes wrote in "A Tract on Monetary Reform" in 1923, "In the long-run we are all dead." http://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroview/normalize-to-what
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Scott Minerd @ScottMinerd
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#Fed says it will keep rates low even after employment & inflation meet targets. That says it all!
1:58 PM - 30 Jul 2014
July 30 2014
Despite a disconcerting, growing consensus among investors, the likelihood of a sudden increase in U.S. interest rates is fairly remote for now.
Global CIO Commentary by Scott Minerd
Most investors can agree that loose monetary policy and quantitative easing have caused overvaluation in some spheres of U.S. credit. Even Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said that some leveraged credit is showing signs of frothiness. But the palpable fear that the Fed’s eventual hiking of short-term interest rates will prompt a general upward shock in interest rates and an abrupt repricing of credit risk and U.S. Treasuries is getting overplayed and too much attention. The reality is that with international demand for U.S. Treasuries likely to increase and the size of incremental U.S. government borrowing expected to decline because of shrinking federal budget deficits, U.S. Treasury yields could move lower.
The likelihood that we are going to have a sudden, ugly increase in interest rates seems fairly remote for now. As for the long-run, well, the consensus view of interest rates normalizing will eventually come true. The problem with that thinking may lie in the definition of "long-run." As John Maynard Keynes wrote in "A Tract on Monetary Reform" in 1923, "In the long-run we are all dead."
http://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroview/normalize-to-what