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Jeremy Grantham/GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts

edited July 2014 in Fund Discussions
7-Year Asset Class Forecasts for various classes of stocks and bonds. As of June 30, 2014

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Comments

  • @rjb112: Suggest you move this link from off-topic to fund discussion.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • How do I move it Ted?
  • Got it Ted. Done
  • @rjb112: Now your talking !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Sorry for stupid question. Is GMO saying TOTAL small cap return over 7 years will be -5 percent, OR year over year?
  • Not a stupid question at all. I had to go to their website and look at a few of their other 7-Year Forecasts. I'm almost certain it's annualized return.....not the cumulative return over 7 years. But remember, these are real returns, so add inflation to these numbers to get the nominal return. One reason I'm almost certain it's annualized return: look at the dotted red line, 6.5% historical long term US equity return. That's the annualized long term real return of US stocks. Add inflation in, and you get the typical numbers you see for the past, for very long term US stock performance, say approximately 9.5% or 10% annualized.....with the very long term inflation numbers being somewhere around 3 or 3.5 or 4%, depending on time period.

    You mentioned small cap: Not pretty! And the area that people seem most cautious about, emerging markets.......interesting.
  • What has been the accuracy of GMO’s prior 7 year forecasts?
  • edited July 2014
    MrRuffles said:

    What has been the accuracy of GMO’s prior 7 year forecasts?

    This thread might be helpful.

    mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/26934/#Comment_26934
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