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Oh yes, those "lingering concerns" over economic growth. News flash: the second revision of Q1 GDP took the original, slightly positive number, down to almost -3%; because weather? The economy may be contracting. If Q2 is negative, the ghost will have been given up to a recessionary period, and we'll get the market contraction we've been waiting for.
@Charles Thanks, Chauncey G. For a rosier outlook, maybe I should be using whatever you're using; is it expensive? Come to think of it, the smoke tree sapling I've been pampering for 5 years finally took off this Spring. Maybe I'm mismeasuring the potential of the green shoots.
If you're doing well, you're definitely doing well.
Do I think there's another 2008 tomorrow? No, but you see some overbuilding in things like hotels. There were a whole lot of hotel projects in major cities in 2007,too and many of them never happened.
You also had instances of hotels refinancing/taking on additional debt at the peak who got into issues in the years after when cash inflows could not service the debt. It's remarkable how many hotel projects there are in some major cities at this point. It's not people taking advantage after the bust, it's years later and you're seeing the rush. Maybe it's not Blackstone buying Hilton at the top, but feels a little like that.
Feels like the hotel industry is one big "Whocouldaknown?" Was there one hotel REIT that didn't drop (wholly or completely) the dividend in 2008?
Yet, first time buyers aren't there and what's primarily selling seems to be the higher end homes (Again, if you're doing well, you're doing very well.).
Also, interesting that years ago people were scrambling to convert rentals into condos for sale at the top. Now, you have the reverse: people scrambling to convert condos into rentals. Story on CNBC the other day about a Florida situation where investors bought up the majority of a condo property, to the point where they could force a buyout of the remaining owners, many of whom bought at the top and would now be accepting less than half. You have rents soaring, because so many people can't buy for various reasons.
Again, I'm not saying another 2008 is around the corner. I'm simply saying, there's the feeling that when things do turn, it'll just be history repeating itself. Easy money boom, easy money bust and, to some degree, back at square one. It's not about creating anything sustainable, it's all about consumption. It's the easiest monetary policy in history and I'm not looking forward to when things eventually turn. I have the feeling that when the next crisis happens, it will be evident that few people learned anything from the last one.
Comments
Also see: Our Economic Growth Is a Mystery. Obamacare Is the Reason.
If ya want a more valid "lingering concern," how about looking at why U.S. stocks ended up higher today?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-27/todays-wtf-moment-day-1550et
Unrigged?
Come to think of it, the smoke tree sapling I've been pampering for 5 years finally took off this Spring. Maybe I'm mismeasuring the potential of the green shoots.
All around.
West coast.
East coast.
Construction of new homes.
Construction of hotels.
Refurnished shops.
Refurbished bridges.
Road expansion.
New cars.
New RVs.
Packed air travel.
Packed restaurants.
Packed stadiums.
Firms hiring.
Solar fields going up everywhere.
Wind farms.
Innovations in oil exploration.
Innovations in materials.
Innovations in health.
Innovations in battery power.
Go clean.
Go green.
Crowded markets.
Crowded freeways.
Everybody owns an i-something.
Credit more available, even HELOCs.
Rates still low.
Fed supportive.
No?
You're not seeing any of this?
Do I think there's another 2008 tomorrow? No, but you see some overbuilding in things like hotels. There were a whole lot of hotel projects in major cities in 2007,too and many of them never happened.
You also had instances of hotels refinancing/taking on additional debt at the peak who got into issues in the years after when cash inflows could not service the debt. It's remarkable how many hotel projects there are in some major cities at this point. It's not people taking advantage after the bust, it's years later and you're seeing the rush. Maybe it's not Blackstone buying Hilton at the top, but feels a little like that.
Feels like the hotel industry is one big "Whocouldaknown?" Was there one hotel REIT that didn't drop (wholly or completely) the dividend in 2008?
This is a lovely chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BEE+Interactive#symbol=BEE;range=my
(nearly $25 in mid-2007 and dropped to less than a buck by early 2009. Has it come back? Absolutely, but still less than half the highs.)
"Go clean.
Go green."
Until the next downturn. No one has any long-term vision. Green does well with oil where it is. Oil drops, people forget about it.
"Everybody owns an i-something."
I wouldn't necessarily say that's a good thing. "Chicken in every pot, Iphone in every hand?"
"Innovations in health."
Any that are going to bring soaring costs down?
" even HELOCs."
Oh, good. Because there's evidence that people used those sensibly before.
Or, if you will, a gif response about HELOCs coming back:
"Refurbished bridges."
Maybe where you're living. I'd say the country as a whole wasted a huge opportunity during this period to focus on infrastructure.
"Packed stadiums"
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/attendance-down-not-just-at-miami-marlins-games-060513
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=87981
Concert ticket prices rise, sales fall.
"Construction of new homes."
Yet, first time buyers aren't there and what's primarily selling seems to be the higher end homes (Again, if you're doing well, you're doing very well.).
Stats on % change by price
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/06/Schizo housing recovery May.jpg
Also, interesting that years ago people were scrambling to convert rentals into condos for sale at the top. Now, you have the reverse: people scrambling to convert condos into rentals. Story on CNBC the other day about a Florida situation where investors bought up the majority of a condo property, to the point where they could force a buyout of the remaining owners, many of whom bought at the top and would now be accepting less than half. You have rents soaring, because so many people can't buy for various reasons.
Again, I'm not saying another 2008 is around the corner. I'm simply saying, there's the feeling that when things do turn, it'll just be history repeating itself. Easy money boom, easy money bust and, to some degree, back at square one. It's not about creating anything sustainable, it's all about consumption. It's the easiest monetary policy in history and I'm not looking forward to when things eventually turn. I have the feeling that when the next crisis happens, it will be evident that few people learned anything from the last one.
Totally, yes. As ever, forever and always.