Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep; if and when it returns. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....That sound is the pontoon boat's aluminum floats rubbing upon the sand bottom; as we are parked in a relative safe harbor, just 20 feet from the shoreline, protected on three sides from the strong winds blowing from one of the Great Lakes bordering Michigan. A 30' pontoon boat needs about 2' of water depth to not touch the below sand or rocks. The boat is in 3' of water depth, but the recent rocking motion of the boat comes from the larger waves that have formed farther out into the big lake surface; but still have impact into the shoreline of the safe harbor.
We find any number of boats in the area; some of whom have also taken safe harbor. A few have pulled their boats completely out of the water. There are other boats, confirmed with a look through the binoculars; that are navigating along into the bigger waves at various distances from the shoreline, and one knows there are other boats much farther out into the open waters of the big lake, but beyond the view of the horizon. We do hope that the weather radar systems upon all of these boats are in proper working order and that the pilots are able to recognize meaningful images to avoid the sudden; sometimes localized, and sometimes far reaching storms that come to be upon the Great Lakes.
Using the weather radar systems allows one to avoid most of the in place and obvious storms; but it is the weather fronts moving into positon that are most difficult to predict. Some of these will never develop into anything meaningful; other than some rain and wind. Some will become storms that pose the potential to do damage to one's boat.
Obviously, as our boat is in a relatively safe harbor, based upon our reading of the weather radar; we do not have the same comittment as those who choose to ply the open, equity waters. From our recent observations of the number of boats in safer harbors, versus those in the open equity waters; there remains a division of how the images upon the weather radar are being interpreted, relative to the weather fronts one may view.
For the below video link, click onto the name title first for a full screen play; so that you may then click onto the "show more" just below the video image which will let you view the text of the radio transmissions and the song lyric.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
NONE
Portfolio Thoughts:Our holdings had a +1.35 % move this past week. And yes, we are satisfied with our risk adjusted returns YTD. If the portfolio can pull a +10 to 12% for the year; you will not hear any whining from this house. (This sentence was from an April write; and I/we suppose a +5% for the year may now look good, too !) Our portfolio is at - 3.65 % from the high point in mid-July.
The old Funds Boat may make 5% or 25% this year. I expect some rough waters, changing winds and opposing currents; causing the most serious attention being given to a firm hand upon the rudder control.
(April report text) Relative to our PTTRX holding, which is the only broad based bond portfolio available in one account; we continue to remain surprised that Mr. Gross' view of Pimco's "new normal" did not match the placement of the portfolio holdings, and the lack of performance YTD. For those checking any of the portfolio holdings, FTBFX had a short term distribution of .042/share and long term distribution of .094/share that is reflected in the NAV change of -1.36% on Friday.
We can hardly wait until Oct. 31 to find whether it will be the trick or the treat.
The immediate below % of holdings are only determined by a "fund" name, NO M* profile this week
CASH = 8.3%
Mixed bond funds = 83.6%
Equity funds = 8.1%
-Investment grade bond funds 23%
-Diversified bond funds 18.5%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 14.6%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FCVSX Fidelity Convertible Securities (bond/equity mix)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FFGCX Fidelity Global Commodity
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
Comments
This was indeed a good week for Skeeter. I am now back to even. Not bad, from my thoughts as the S&P 500 Index started the year at 1258 and with its most recent close of 1225 puts it at a loss of about 2.6%. If one were to allow about one half on one percent per quarter for dividend distributions then from a total return would be at about a loss of 1.1% ytd. In checking the Lipper Balanced Index it is at a ytd loss of about 0.8%.
Thus far, there are no standouts from where we would like to be. But, all considered, it could be worse. Over the last couple of weeks stocks in general have gone form about a 23% discount to a 13% discount to their fair value as shown from review of Moringstar’s Market Valuation Graph. With this, there seems to be some value to still be found still in stocks and perhaps if year over year earnings for 3Q2011 come in at about 12% above those of 3Q2010 as forecast … then, perhaps stocks will have enough fuel to continue their upward trend on and into the fall and maybe perhaps beyond. In my studying the charting of the etf, ISI, I do see some near terms resistance, tuber lance, but there also appears to be a lot of blue sky ahead. So it could be a pleasant flight … with few or no alarms in the cot pit.
How about Carl Edwards last night with that Nationwide win? I did not go to the track last night nor will I be there tonight. But, bet your biffy, I’ll be watching on TV. I hope you enjoy the race.
Have a good weekend, and … Good Investing.
My best,
Skeeter