Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Baseball fan here. "Battering average" makes me giggle. So, Grantham is not a dumb shit after all, eh?
Grantham is certainly a very smart guy. And well worth reading.
But based on my read of his most recent articles [all available for free on the GMO website, and you can subscribe to get notified of them by email], if I were going to act based on his current beliefs, I'd be out of equities entirely.
IIRC, he thinks US stocks are 65% overvalued, and going to have a negative return over the next 7 years.
So if the 7-year return on US Stocks is going to be negative, why would I invest in them?
Of course, he may be right. Some of the best stock market minds believed that the US stock market was significantly overvalued starting in January of 1996, but the market kept moving upwards for more than 4 years afterwards. A number of the best value stock mutual fund managers had or almost had their careers uprooted because they refused to buy the overvalued names from 1996-March 2000. Even Donald Yacktman almost lost his job. His own fund board tried to kick him off the Yacktman fund!
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But based on my read of his most recent articles [all available for free on the GMO website, and you can subscribe to get notified of them by email], if I were going to act based on his current beliefs, I'd be out of equities entirely.
IIRC, he thinks US stocks are 65% overvalued, and going to have a negative return over the next 7 years.
So if the 7-year return on US Stocks is going to be negative, why would I invest in them?
Of course, he may be right.
Some of the best stock market minds believed that the US stock market was significantly overvalued starting in January of 1996, but the market kept moving upwards for more than 4 years afterwards. A number of the best value stock mutual fund managers had or almost had their careers uprooted because they refused to buy the overvalued names from 1996-March 2000. Even Donald Yacktman almost lost his job. His own fund board tried to kick him off the Yacktman fund!