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@Dex: why are Art's comments posted every day. Because I like to post his comments. Who died and left you in charge. Don't ever tell me what to post again. !!!
Ted, if I told you once, I've told you 6 billion times, stop using such hyperbolic terms! Cashin is something of an institution there on The Floor of the Exchange, no? Wasn't he going to retire soon...? He talks trader's language, not "long-term investor" lingo. He is well respected. I like to see what he has to say. EVERYTHING you hear from the Talking Heads must be filtered and considered against everything ELSE. Seems to me, Cashin has a feel for both the specific details and the imprecise intuitive, fuzziness of the Markets. The Markets are temperamental and fickle. Investing requires the gathering of information, but there is an aspect to it requiring a certain difficult-to-describe- legerdemain--- as Mr. Spock would say. (Webster's: "a display of skill or adroitness.")
..."a string of big shorts in CBOE VIX futures suggest hedge funds are betting against volatility. That means they think stocks will keep trading in a narrow range, he added..."
I'd love to see a breakout to the upside. Today, the distinctly positive uptick was surely connected to ECB easing. I must say--- remembering the inflation of the '70s and early '80s--- to hear DEFLATION is a THREAT sounds like the Square Root of the number 2. It doesn't compute. In the States, for sure, the fact that wages are at the level they were in the '70s is surely a drag on spending. That's 66% of the US economy. To make a non-economic parallel, it sounds rather like the way a heroin addict needs more heroin, not to feel GOOD, but just to keep from feeling BAD. ...Ya, I rambled. Sue me.
I'm with @JohnChisum. @Ted could you elaborate on why you find his comments particularly insightful?
I'm not Ted, but Cashin has been on the floor of the NYSE for something like several decades. He's something of an institution and his insights come from being there for ages. He is not the be-all, end-all (no one is), but I do like his insights from the fact that you have someone who has gotten the ability to read markets rather well given his years (and years and years) of experience at the NYSE.
What I find rather interesting is that Intercontinental Exchange, the company who bought the NYSE (and who is known for their computer-generated trading) is actually going to have more action on the NYSE floor.
"The Atlanta-based company, known as ICE, is led by Chief Executive Jeffrey Sprecher, and over the years had made a habit of buying exchanges, closing their rambunctious trading pits and routing orders onto cool, efficient computer networks.
Yet it appears that NYSE floor traders have an unlikely friend in Mr. Sprecher. Rather than close the floor, he is planning to make the place look a whole lot livelier. "You're going to see the stock exchange itself, the floor-based portion, become bigger and nicer," Mr. Sprecher said at his company's annual meeting last month. "We're going to relocate people in that area to collaborate around trading."
..."a string of big shorts in CBOE VIX futures suggest hedge funds are betting against volatility. That means they think stocks will keep trading in a narrow range, he added..."
I'd love to see a breakout to the upside. Today, the distinctly positive uptick was surely connected to ECB easing. I must say--- remembering the inflation of the '70s and early '80s--- to hear DEFLATION is a THREAT sounds like the Square Root of the number 2. It doesn't compute. In the States, for sure, the fact that wages are at the level they were in the '70s is surely a drag on spending. That's 66% of the US economy. To make a non-economic parallel, it sounds rather like the way a heroin addict needs more heroin, not to feel GOOD, but just to keep from feeling BAD. ...Ya, I rambled. Sue me.
I feel you on the inflation front. The things I buy seem to be going up - not staying flat. Yet, I think low (possibly - deflation - long shot) inflation, under 2% is here for awhile. Why: - Quality of jobs post the Great Recession - low salaries - Employee benefits going away - defined pensions, 401K co. contributions, health benefits - Older workers staying in jobs longer - no opportunities for the young - Aging population & SS issue - increase SS tax? - Gov't Dept - will require the institution of VAT in the future In short, there are many things that will keep people living paycheck to paycheck and inflation low.
As to the inflation of the 70/80s the causes were different - gun/butter economy of Vietnam, wage/price controls, oil shock.
As to Art - I don't see him providing useful info. When I've listened to him he talked about what has happened not the future implications.
I feel you on the inflation front. The things I buy seem to be going up - not staying flat.
I think there's definitely noticeable inflation occurring. Not only from literal price increases, but from the frequently noted package size changes. Additionally, I think the aspect that isn't discussed enough is lesser and lesser quality. Clothing, appliances and other things may be similarly priced or cheaper, but parts are more flimsy, fabric is cheaper, etc.
I do think you're seeing real inflation in things that people need here and globally and not as much in things we don't need/wants.
"Kraft (KRFT) raised prices by 10% on its product lines - Maxwell House, Yuban roast and ground coffee brands, as a result of climbing bean costs which went into effect on June 6.
J.M. Smucker (SJM) has already increased prices on its retail brand's Folgers, Dunkin' Donut roast, and ground coffee products by ~9% last week. This past week the company also reported lower sales in FQ4 due to pricing actions in the quarter."
Everything, everything, is being increased in price terms, in a sneaky way. EVERY packaged item, from soup to crackers to jerky, to Red Stripe--- are priced a bit higher than before, PLUS, there is less in the package. "El Sucko."
Comments
I have to ask; why are Art's comments posted every day.
I don't see him any different then other daily headline writers.
Cashin is something of an institution there on The Floor of the Exchange, no? Wasn't he going to retire soon...? He talks trader's language, not "long-term investor" lingo. He is well respected. I like to see what he has to say. EVERYTHING you hear from the Talking Heads must be filtered and considered against everything ELSE. Seems to me, Cashin has a feel for both the specific details and the imprecise intuitive, fuzziness of the Markets. The Markets are temperamental and fickle. Investing requires the gathering of information, but there is an aspect to it requiring a certain difficult-to-describe- legerdemain--- as Mr. Spock would say. (Webster's: "a display of skill or adroitness.")
..."a string of big shorts in CBOE VIX futures suggest hedge funds are betting against volatility. That means they think stocks will keep trading in a narrow range, he added..."
I'd love to see a breakout to the upside. Today, the distinctly positive uptick was surely connected to ECB easing. I must say--- remembering the inflation of the '70s and early '80s--- to hear DEFLATION is a THREAT sounds like the Square Root of the number 2. It doesn't compute. In the States, for sure, the fact that wages are at the level they were in the '70s is surely a drag on spending. That's 66% of the US economy. To make a non-economic parallel, it sounds rather like the way a heroin addict needs more heroin, not to feel GOOD, but just to keep from feeling BAD. ...Ya, I rambled. Sue me.
What I find rather interesting is that Intercontinental Exchange, the company who bought the NYSE (and who is known for their computer-generated trading) is actually going to have more action on the NYSE floor.
"The Atlanta-based company, known as ICE, is led by Chief Executive Jeffrey Sprecher, and over the years had made a habit of buying exchanges, closing their rambunctious trading pits and routing orders onto cool, efficient computer networks.
Yet it appears that NYSE floor traders have an unlikely friend in Mr. Sprecher. Rather than close the floor, he is planning to make the place look a whole lot livelier.
"You're going to see the stock exchange itself, the floor-based portion, become bigger and nicer," Mr. Sprecher said at his company's annual meeting last month. "We're going to relocate people in that area to collaborate around trading."
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20140602/FINANCE/306019986/nyse-chief-wants-to-bring-back-trading-floor-action#
Note: Long ICE (long-term position, but not a large position.)
- Quality of jobs post the Great Recession - low salaries
- Employee benefits going away - defined pensions, 401K co. contributions, health benefits
- Older workers staying in jobs longer - no opportunities for the young
- Aging population & SS issue - increase SS tax?
- Gov't Dept - will require the institution of VAT in the future
In short, there are many things that will keep people living paycheck to paycheck and inflation low.
As to the inflation of the 70/80s the causes were different - gun/butter economy of Vietnam, wage/price controls, oil shock.
As to Art - I don't see him providing useful info. When I've listened to him he talked about what has happened not the future implications.
I do think you're seeing real inflation in things that people need here and globally and not as much in things we don't need/wants.
"Kraft (KRFT) raised prices by 10% on its product lines - Maxwell House, Yuban roast and ground coffee brands, as a result of climbing bean costs which went into effect on June 6.
J.M. Smucker (SJM) has already increased prices on its retail brand's Folgers, Dunkin' Donut roast, and ground coffee products by ~9% last week. This past week the company also reported lower sales in FQ4 due to pricing actions in the quarter."
http://seekingalpha.com/news/1790183-retail-coffee-prices-rise-by-9minus-10-percent
As I noted the other week, even the Fed's own cafeteria is admitting 3-33% inflation in food costs. (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-24/federal-reserve-admits-truth-internal-memo-prices-continue-rise-between-3-and-33)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Kaufman