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AA's been very successful so far. Picked up under $8.
SCHN, just up and down...started buying around $26.
I like both CEOs.
I like the turn-around nature of their businesses.
They are undervalued cyclicals.
I believe that as (if?) the recovery continues to improve, so will their earnings.
Both are probably healthier now with things they can control than they have been in years.
AA keeps innovating technically. I've always loved aluminum.
I find the full-cycle nature of SCHN's recycle-shredders-foundry-mill-carparts-recycle-shredders-foundry-mill-carparts very compelling. But every time China forecasts lately, the stock drops. I think it will get stronger as year goes on and construction continues on west coast.
I've not owned X for any length of time, but see it as a bellwether.
Will try to continue to hold both AA and SCHN as long as their stories hold true. But SCHN is on short leash since it has fallen below its 10 mo SMA.
"The precious metals were in steep downtrends for most of 2013, but you can see that they have stabilized into a sideways pattern so far this year. While the charts for gold, silver and platinum aren't necessarily bullish, it's good to see them forming a base. Platinum especially looks like it's gearing up for a move higher if it can just break above the top end of its sideways range." One year charts of selected commodities http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/20/bespokes-commodity-snapshot.html
@hank Yeah, I don't know where Oakmark's managers heads are at lately. Just went thru the hldgs refresh and commentary for OAKGX, and their new-found treasure is.... Citigroup! Just waxed on and on about it, good business model, fully recovered from financial crisis hit, etc. Unbelievable. I've taken the fund off my watch list.
@hank Yeah, I don't know where Oakmark's managers heads are at lately. Just went thru the hldgs refresh and commentary for OAKGX, and their new-found treasure is.... Citigroup! Just waxed on and on about it, good business model, fully recovered from financial crisis hit, etc. Unbelievable. I've taken the fund off my watch list.
LOL - Some perspective here. They all stumble from time to time. Value managers often buy things when prospects look bleakest. D&C's big stakes in Wells Fargo & HP a decade ago might be good examples. And these bit them real hard. ... Unfortunately, sometimes these funds fall into a "value trap". The larger the fund, the worse these miscues look because it ain't that easy for these big guys to scale out of a position once they realize they have a problem. Instead of one black eye they're likely to have two - both real dandies.
There may be some very good reasons not to own one or more of these funds. But, I wouldn't let a single (or even a few) missteps deter me!
@hank Agree; if you were to use a bad single position as a deal-breaker, then you would either (1) never invest in a stock MF, or not for very long, or (2) more often than not be unsatisfied with most of your stock MF investments, and carry around your disappoints being Mr. Sad Face (and who wants to play with someone like that? ). On the other hand, as you note, value funds that take positions in optimistic reconstruction (in this case, resurrection) stories, after rigorous bottom-up analysis of course, can eventually put all their shareholders in a bottoms-up position [hope this wasn't too vulgar an image for ya].
We've been at this long enough to know that what one reads, and what they say, isn't necessarily "what it is." This is a bit of a stretch--- do you suppose this position could be part of "what it is" and they just can't explicitly state it? http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/05/21/buy-big-banks-on-breakup-potential/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw IOW, in this position, could Oakmark actually be going Carl Icahn-ish on us? Stranger things have happened....
Reply to heezsafe: LOL - this is all a little too complicated for me. But yes - If they're good, they're supposed to see things average investors (you and me) don't. This would include potential break-ups, mergers, management changes and leveraged buy-outs. I can think of some scenarios (but a diminishing number) that would cause GM's stock to jump. Foremost, even if unfounded, would be a rumor that Alan Mulally plans to take over the top job at GM after he leaves Ford later this year. Wanna help me start a rumor?
We could also probably conjure up some good ones that would boost Citi's stock - short term anyway.
Just out of curiosity, wonder if activist fund manager David Winters, owns either of these two dogs?
Comments
AA's been very successful so far. Picked up under $8.
SCHN, just up and down...started buying around $26.
I like both CEOs.
I like the turn-around nature of their businesses.
They are undervalued cyclicals.
I believe that as (if?) the recovery continues to improve, so will their earnings.
Both are probably healthier now with things they can control than they have been in years.
AA keeps innovating technically. I've always loved aluminum.
I find the full-cycle nature of SCHN's recycle-shredders-foundry-mill-carparts-recycle-shredders-foundry-mill-carparts very compelling. But every time China forecasts lately, the stock drops. I think it will get stronger as year goes on and construction continues on west coast.
I've not owned X for any length of time, but see it as a bellwether.
Will try to continue to hold both AA and SCHN as long as their stories hold true. But SCHN is on short leash since it has fallen below its 10 mo SMA.
One year charts of selected commodities
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/20/bespokes-commodity-snapshot.html
Asian demand for gold slumps in Q1
http://seekingalpha.com/news/1761063-asian-demand-for-gold-slumps-in-q1
There may be some very good reasons not to own one or more of these funds. But, I wouldn't let a single (or even a few) missteps deter me!
We've been at this long enough to know that what one reads, and what they say, isn't necessarily "what it is." This is a bit of a stretch--- do you suppose this position could be part of "what it is" and they just can't explicitly state it?
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/05/21/buy-big-banks-on-breakup-potential/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw
IOW, in this position, could Oakmark actually be going Carl Icahn-ish on us? Stranger things have happened....
We could also probably conjure up some good ones that would boost Citi's stock - short term anyway.
Just out of curiosity, wonder if activist fund manager David Winters, owns either of these two dogs?