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Thank you for yet another article that addresses the forecasters ability to forecast. That is a topic that greatly interests me.
I never doubt that forecasters love to forecast. The challenge is to keep score on the accuracy of those forecasts.
I posted on this exact subject a few days earlier than the article that you referenced. The article uses many of the same data references that I used. Perhaps my submittal inspired the piece you located.
Phil Tetlock’s research on this matter is exhaustive in scope. Here is my internal Link to my posting on the topic:
If MFOers are interested, I recommend that you consider a video interview with Tetlock that I referenced. For completeness, here is the Link to that video:
A more rigorous ongoing examination of expert’s accuracy in a long-term prediction tournament organized by Tetlock is partially completed. It’s funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA). Some super-predictors have been identified and they have been grouped together to test if team performance can be enhanced. A provisional finding is that, to a limited extent with exercises and training, scores can be improved.
Comments
Thank you for yet another article that addresses the forecasters ability to forecast. That is a topic that greatly interests me.
I never doubt that forecasters love to forecast. The challenge is to keep score on the accuracy of those forecasts.
I posted on this exact subject a few days earlier than the article that you referenced. The article uses many of the same data references that I used. Perhaps my submittal inspired the piece you located.
Phil Tetlock’s research on this matter is exhaustive in scope. Here is my internal Link to my posting on the topic:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com:80/discuss/discussion/13113/the-reliability-of-expert-forecasting#latest
If MFOers are interested, I recommend that you consider a video interview with Tetlock that I referenced. For completeness, here is the Link to that video:
http://edge.org/conversation/how-to-win-at-forecasting
Enjoy.
A more rigorous ongoing examination of expert’s accuracy in a long-term prediction tournament organized by Tetlock is partially completed. It’s funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA). Some super-predictors have been identified and they have been grouped together to test if team performance can be enhanced. A provisional finding is that, to a limited extent with exercises and training, scores can be improved.
Best Regards.