A Saturday Morn'in Hello,
On the go a bit today, and will do some Funds Boat writing later. The below numbers/list is from MSN finance and they do match return numbers from M*. Hopefully, following and matching the YTD and other time frames as you read across the page is not too nasty; as the format is the best I can provide.
Obviously, the "large AUM funds" below do not have much relationship to our holdings for a comparison; but may be of value purely for looking at the numbers in these areas. The other two areas of conservative/moderate/balanced funds have more of a relationship to our holdings.
This is the MSN link, and there is a "back" feature near the end of any funds group list to get one back to the fund type choices list...the easiest method to use:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfunds.aspAnyway, a quick and dirty look at some numbers.....
Regards,
Catch
LARGE FUNDS*, by $'s invested/AUM Symbol Company Net Assets Morningstar Stars YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv 58.72 Bil 4 -9.27 3.19 1.06 -0.25
AGTHX American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A 57.08 Bil 3 -10.91 -0.26 -0.24 -0.35
FCNTX Fidelity Contrafund 57.05 Bil 4 -5.76 4.71 3.19 3.05
CAIBX American Funds Capital Inc Bldr A 55.90 Bil 3 -4.09 0.35 1.79 1.13
AMECX American Funds Inc Fund of Amer A 51.18 Bil 3 -3.03 2.99 3.86 1.39
VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Admiral 49.87 Bil 4 -8.33 3.04 0.79 -0.76
CWGIX American Funds Capital World G/I A 48.36 Bil 4 -14.32 -8.40 -1.55 -0.48
VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm 47.45 Bil 4 -9.22 3.28 1.16 -0.16
AIVSX American Funds Invmt Co of Amer A 43.10 Bil 3 -11.09 -1.53 -0.21 -1.59
DODFX Dodge & Cox International Stock 40.30 Bil 4 -21.23 -12.77 -2.39 -2.33
CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION/BALANCED SHORT TERM*
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
HSTRX Hussman Strategic Total Return 2.45 3.55 3.50 5.25 7.78
WICAX Waddell & Reed InvestEd Cnsrv A -0.19 2.18 2.13 4.16 4.46
SNSAX SAAT Defensive Strategy A -0.07 1.86 2.54 1.74 0.84
MATRX GAMCO Mathers AAA NA -1.00 -2.08 -1.97 -0.30
TPDAX Timothy Plan Defensive Strategies A -0.08 4.72 11.39 NA NA
TPDCX Timothy Plan Defensive Strategies C -0.26 4.33 10.69 NA NA
ASENX Aston Dynamic Allocation N -0.63 -0.21 9.18 5.18 NA
FMUAX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage A -0.70 4.45 4.43 3.96 1.87
FMUFX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage F -0.70 4.44 4.43 4.01 NA
FMNBX Federated Muni and Stock Advantage B -0.89 3.92 3.65 3.18 1.10
LONG TERM**
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
APIUX API Efficient Frontier Income A -9.79 -6.69 -3.63 15.87 6.80
AFFIX API Efficient Frontier Income C -9.81 -6.74 -3.74 15.36 6.08
FFSAX Fifth Third Strategic Inc A -1.49 3.05 4.20 15.30 4.49
FRACX Fifth Third Strategic Inc Inv C -1.59 2.53 3.48 14.49 3.82
PRPFX Permanent Portfolio -3.96 0.61 9.69 9.41 9.26 BERIX Berwyn Income -3.36 -0.88 3.10 8.67 7.16
VWIAX Vanguard Wellesley Income Adm -1.47 3.41 5.61 8.52 5.67
VWINX Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv -1.44 3.35 5.59 8.44 5.58
DFIAX Delaware Foundation Cnsrv Allc A -5.04 -1.75 1.95 8.04 4.66
DFIRX Delaware Foundation Cnsrv Allc R -5.11 -1.94 1.68 7.79 4.41
MODERATE ALLOCATION/BALANCED SHORT TERM*
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
JADHX JHT Core Diversified Gr & Inc Ser III 0.71 5.36 18.57 3.92 NA
JADNX JHT Core Diversified Gr & Inc Ser NAV 0.71 5.45 18.74 4.11 NA
SIRRX Sierra Core Retirement R -0.61 2.71 3.26 13.11 NA SIRAX Sierra Core Retirement A -0.49 2.66 3.05 12.89 NA
CPMPX Changing Parameters -0.53 0.53 3.45 0.68 NA
SIRCX Sierra Core Retirement C -0.65 2.17 2.32 NA NA
AAXAX Adaptive Allocation A -1.69 -1.16 12.20 NA NA
AAXCX Adaptive Allocation C -2.07 -1.71 11.12 7.98 2.31
MOBAX Aston/Montag & Caldwell Balanced N -2.92 -1.41 4.28 3.58 4.42
HBFBX Hennessy Balanced -3.17 0.27 4.19 3.53 0.91
LONG TERM**
Symbol Company 3-month YTD 1-year 3-year 5-year
SIRRX Sierra Core Retirement R -0.40 2.71 3.35 13.16 NASIRAX Sierra Core Retirement A -0.70 2.49 2.91 12.85 NA
BRUFX Bruce -6.67 1.78 11.68 12.79 3.93
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity -10.19 -7.39 0.86 10.03 NA
AAXCX Adaptive Allocation C -2.07 -1.71 11.12 7.98 2.31
IBALX Transamerica Balanced A -6.17 -3.22 8.22 6.97 4.12
ICMBX Intrepid Capital -6.69 -4.89 2.31 7.20 6.49
FBLAX Franklin Balanced A -7.76 -5.34 2.36 6.69 2.12
AZNAX Allianz AGIC Income & Growth A -9.16 -7.39 2.09 7.09 NA
AZNDX Allianz AGIC Income & Growth D -9.13 -7.44 2.10 7.09 NA
Comments
Well, I will presume the question relating to the 10 year T yield and related yields are now so low: when is there is not any value in "just the yield". I suspect that the lows for yields in the 10 and 30 year T's will have a difficult time moving below 1.5% and 2.25%, respectively; and may indeed not get to these levels.
One large overhang related to T yields is what is the Euro Zone going to do next? Might their rates be dropped too; as a "form" of stimulus to promote some type of borrowing? Germany bonds have followed the same path of flight to safety, as has the U.S. T issues. All of this could change fairly fast from interest rate policy changes in the EU.
However, as long as indecision and all of the other unclear paths of "fixes" remain in place in the U.S. and Euro; I will have to suspect that T's and some EuroZone bonds will continue to have cash inflows; and push yields lower and PRICES higher.
The higher prices/NAVs has been our main goal with our bond holdings; with whatever the currrent yield may be as the bonus money.
This is not unlike an equity/stock investor wanting the growth of a company to provide for a higher price/NAV of the issue to increase; but the investor also has invested in a company/fund that happens to pay a decent dividend.
We view the bond; or dividend paying equity holdings as similar types; as both have similar goals; with the investor desiring a higher price/NAV of the holdings and/or the inclusive yield or dividend, which are both the same type of monies thrown off from an investment.....just different names for our purposes here.
If both of us bought funds; yours being a dividend paying equity fund, this house buys a bond fund; and supposing that all holdings in both funds are high quality and investment grade; and that for some reason there were not large market events to affect the NAV of either fund, both of which happen to yield/dividend 4% annually; from Jan 1 - Dec 31 of a given year, neither of us gained or lost via any NAV change, but we both had payouts of yield/dividend that were equal, eh?
When the market shift does arrive, from the fictious land of a flat NAV for one year; one of us will be happy and the other not, until the realization that the shift/trend has arrived. If market forces continue to run to some types of bonds, our yield will go down; but the price/NAV will increase from the demand. The same would apply to monies moving to the equity area; your equity fund's dividend would decrease, but the price/NAV would increase. At some point in our bond or equity adventure, and depending upon which area is in favor at the time; neither of us "cares" anymore what the yield or the dividend may be; as we are making more money from the positive upward movement of the price/NAV....and that would be the most prominent feature of the investment at the time.
The obvious circumstance with this example is trying to determine the cost of money, which is reflected in bond pricing; and the larger critter that all of us face today; and that is when the machines and big money attempt to determine whether the cost of money (bonds) or the undervalued cost of companies (equities) is more favorable for profit.
I will offer this worthless statement for all practical purposes; but is what we individual investors face:
The selling continues until it is exhausted, and the buyers take over.
hank, I sure hope what I jabbered above makes some sense about how we currently view most of our bond holdings; and future equity holdings, too.
I recall a post/reply to you several weeks ago that I thought the 10 year T would see 2.55%, before it would see 3.55%. This, obviously; has moved to an even more extreme number than I would have "guessed". This house is indeed watching the action to look for shifts/trends.
All of us here must determine for our own holdings, when will any extreme start to rotate to some other place.
No shrimp boat yet, I do believe !
Regards,
Catch