I can not offer that I have a total clue as to how complex the EU/ECB/Greek bailout or whateve one chooses to name this situation; may be. But, I do know that I also can not understand the time frame for this adventure, either.
I have run my mouth about this over the past two years; and also watched the ramifications of this circus.
When my little pea-like brain can not process a complex situation regarding investments, I have to do my best to alter my angle of view of the situation and to also attempt to place what would be a "common sensical" view of the situation.
So.......I must determine that the Greek situation is vastly more complex than I can perceive; OR that all stake holders are buying time for the "death watch", OR that I/we do not have the truth about the matter, OR other circumstances, OR all of these plus other stuff.
I recall during the past few weeks that Finland had an offer to purchase Greek debt, BUT with such a "novel" plan........Finland would require something "real" against the prospect of default.........collateral !!!
Gosh, who could conceive such a deal. I sure as heck don't know anyone in my real world who would not have their auto or house "taken" if they failed to make the payments.
If the EU zone folks want to have a fast and final, get out of our way program; merely make a list of which and what of Greece's assets will be given to who, as backing for the money. One could presume that the citizens of Germany would love to have a nearly free plan for a Greek vacation package, knowing that their "state" owns/controls a lovely resort on one of the islands. A kinda, "in lieu of payment" program for all involved.
UPDATE German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the 17-nation bloc that uses the euro currency must do everything it can to avoid an “uncontrolled insolvency” by Greece.
Ms. Merkel is sure a lot smarter than this fella; but I sure don't always understand the "words". What is "uncontrolled insolvency"? I can conjure a situation of one losing their work, then gettting behind in all payments, then having one's house/auto in foreclosure/confiscation, not being able to pay the house insurance while still living their during foreclosure; then having the house burn to the ground; and thinking, well, we do own the 20 arces of prime building land that is not part of the foreclosure and then having the whole piece of dirt drop into a 20 arce sink hole...one's last real asset. I suppose this could be named, “uncontrolled insolvency”.
'Course, things are also silly here, too. A little related to the always crazy political side (and many of these folks wonder why the citizens who have half a brain are skeptical) was an interview during the last Florida election for governor. I recall the statement was from the former governor; but could have come from any number of political mouths from the local to federal level. The person was asked about a tax increase that he had or was proposing to help fund something or other; and his reply was that it WAS NOT a tax; BUT a FEE. Okay, just call my Mr. Stupid for not understanding the difference.
Thanks for allowing me to blow off some steam regarding my view of all things silly that are so intertwined into our investment lives. Some days I just would prefer to run away from home and forget all of the crap we all have to wade through to get from investment point A to B.
Sincerely,
Catch
Comments
Around dawn-ish there was a rumor that there was going to be an announcement from Germany and France regarding Greece and the market went flat/positive.
An hour later, there was a denial, market fell 60.
Then there was a report of a conference call between Greece/France/Germany. Market up.
Now there is a rumor that Russia will also bail out European countries (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-rumormill-goes-full-retard)
Report that Italy did ask for help from China "confirmed" by CNBC, now apparently Italy is saying they did not ask.
""uncontrolled insolvency"?"
My guess? "Our banks were stupid enough to be loaded up with this stuff, as well as other PIIGS debt, so we don't want to have Greece go under and if it does, we don't want this be disorderly because we have put our banks in front of everything else." The desperation to keep Greece and other neighbors from default would suggest to me that the interconnected nature would cause a domino effect of rather epic severity. If that wasn't the case, then why would they devote so much effort to create so much BS to try and keep it from happening? They're not trying to prop Greece up out of the goodness of their hearts.
Are we seeing/watching the equivalent of the "Hail Mary" pass of a football game; continue to evolve in the world of global finance???
I just get so peeved with all of the posturing and "words". I/we at this house do our best to sort out the perceived crap from the "reality bits" scenarios.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Catch
I would not be surprise if --> PIIGS, Cali, Florida, Nevada, Arizon, NY, MI follow these 'orderly default as Greek' in the next 12-24 months
I am having lots of 2nd thoughts now
probably may sell all the junkie muni bonds from these unwanted states LOL...
also Hail marry does work sometimes ...LOL
what a heart break for the Texans...lol
That's a good way of putting it.
"I just get so peeved with all of the posturing and "words". I/we at this house do our best to sort out the perceived crap from the "reality bits" scenarios."
There was a discussion by economist Jim Rickards online the other day where he talked to a former Fed governor who, he said, basically said that Fed meetings were 10% policy and 90% working on "communication" (in other words, propaganda.) Wouldn't surprise me. I continue to reference the whole thing earlier this year where a Euro official basically admitted lying about an important meeting taking place because he didn't want to spook the markets.
I continue to like real asset plays and continue to like them more the more this kind of bs (rumors, etc.) happens.