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As unpredictable as this market has been lately today's end of the day rally has me befuddled. Not complaining...just confused. Any thoughts on what prompted a half hour feeding frenzy? China may buy Italy's debt?
Rumors that China was going to (again) bail out part of Euro-land. That rumor came out and the market went from something like -160 to -55. Then it fell back to -110, then it came back up throughout the last hour. Market is probably oversold and I do think there are values, but this was bizarre. Personally, didn't change (buy/sell) anything.
From my perspective the markets, in general, are oversold. I compute the S&P 500 Index to be selling on a forward P/E Ratio of about 10.9. With this, I am looking for some good upward price movement as we move into fall. I have been buying a little here and a little there, at a measured pace, as I work towards increasing my equity allocation to about a 60% weighting within my portfolio to take advantage of the anticipated traditional fall stock market rally.
"...those with a bullish bias would be better positioned adding to HY longs here, and those with a bearish bias should prefer to use equities. In relative-value land, a HY-IG compression - modestly hedged with an equity short should perform well if we remain range-bound."
I'm not sophisticated but maybe some fund managers are.
hello i am just a small time investor. I believe these days most of the fundamentals are gone, everything are about trading levels. There are not too much news today and it still went up but lots of volatility. I think the next 12-24 months would be very volatile. just my two cents
Reply to @bee: ...And futures down 134 as of crack of dawn this morning.
I've been reasonably successful with BH Macro (BHMDF.PK), which definitely uses more complex strategies, but for certain, nothing is for certain (at least for very long) in this kind of environment.
Reply to @scott: Again, more rumors - futures down 150+ in early hours this morning, then a rumor of France/Greece making an announcement about Greece comes out and futures go positive. Moments ago, cnbc reports a denial out of France that a meeting will take place, market drops 60 points in a minute or two.
I've noticed a few things. Seems the US markets open lower, maybe based on overseas markets than mostly recover by day's end. I've noticed media frenzy over problem overseas markets which seems to change from country to country almost daily. Don't mean to discount the very real problems abroad, but to some extent it's media hype in the way the big storm featured on WC for days ahead rarely turns out to be as big as predicted, while generating advertising dollars for days.
Europe has a mess on their hands stemming from the flawed common currency model. But Europe ain't the only financial market on the globe, at least ain't been for hundreds of years. Finally I've noticed ain't half as smart as I once thought, having predicted 10 year Treasury would never go below 3% and the DJI would top 13,000 by years end. More seriously, while caution may be advised, ya can't let all your money rot in low yielding money market instruments. So, pick your poison of choice, but expose some of your assets to things like stocks, real-estate or commodities for some inflation protection. BTW: Oil appears to be holding up pretty well recently, in the mid 80s last time I looked, and one sign the world ain't coming to an end anytime soon.
<<<---- likes MLPs. Also is looking at Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) at these levels (although that's a maybe, but that's the one RE play I like.)
Comments
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-snapshot-what-happened
From my perspective the markets, in general, are oversold. I compute the S&P 500 Index to be selling on a forward P/E Ratio of about 10.9. With this, I am looking for some good upward price movement as we move into fall. I have been buying a little here and a little there, at a measured pace, as I work towards increasing my equity allocation to about a 60% weighting within my portfolio to take advantage of the anticipated traditional fall stock market rally.
Good Investing,
Skeeter
From your referenced article:
"...those with a bullish bias would be better positioned adding to HY longs here, and those with a bearish bias should prefer to use equities. In relative-value land, a HY-IG compression - modestly hedged with an equity short should perform well if we remain range-bound."
I'm not sophisticated but maybe some fund managers are.
bee
Thanks Skeeter,
I have been following VGK (Vanguard Europe) which has dropped almost 30% from its 2011 high. Here's an article that might be of interest:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/293193-stock-etfs-that-may-benefit-from-china-buying-italian-bonds?source=yahoo
i am just a small time investor. I believe these days most of the fundamentals are gone, everything are about trading levels. There are not too much news today and it still went up but lots of volatility. I think the next 12-24 months would be very volatile. just my two cents
I've been reasonably successful with BH Macro (BHMDF.PK), which definitely uses more complex strategies, but for certain, nothing is for certain (at least for very long) in this kind of environment.
Europe has a mess on their hands stemming from the flawed common currency model. But Europe ain't the only financial market on the globe, at least ain't been for hundreds of years. Finally I've noticed ain't half as smart as I once thought, having predicted 10 year Treasury would never go below 3% and the DJI would top 13,000 by years end. More seriously, while caution may be advised, ya can't let all your money rot in low yielding money market instruments. So, pick your poison of choice, but expose some of your assets to things like stocks, real-estate or commodities for some inflation protection. BTW: Oil appears to be holding up pretty well recently, in the mid 80s last time I looked, and one sign the world ain't coming to an end anytime soon.