Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Bonds Outperform Stocks In Best Start To A Year Since 2008
“This is an unusual January,” Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at U.S. Trust Bank of America Private Wealth Management, which invests more than $300 billion, said in a phone interview from New York. “We’re right on the knife’s edge where we’re coming off Fed tapering -- a huge shift in monetary policy. Emerging markets have been suspect all along and there’s weakness in those markets. It’s all coming to a head.”
---Heck, I thought 2013 was unusual, too.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to 2.64 percent from 3.03 percent at the end of December, defying economists who predicted a rise to 3.4 percent by year-end, based on a Bloomberg survey of banks."
---Can't recall exactly; but Goldman or JP Morgan or ??? had a published forecast/call in the spring of 2010 or 2011 that the 10yr T was going to 5.4% or so before the end of that year. A tough game, eh?
***Found Goldman's forecast notation from Dec. 2010 for year 2011: Persistent upward pressure on market interest rates, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes reaching 3¾% by year-end 2011 and 4¼% by year-end 2012.
---the 10 year yield change is about 12.17%; which is quite a number when comparing to other YTD numbers from any equity/bond sectors. About the only near match for YTD are precious metals funds. Not counting 2 or 3X etf's or other inverse or specialty funds.
Comments
“This is an unusual January,” Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist at U.S. Trust Bank of America Private Wealth Management, which invests more than $300 billion, said in a phone interview from New York. “We’re right on the knife’s edge where we’re coming off Fed tapering -- a huge shift in monetary policy. Emerging markets have been suspect all along and there’s weakness in those markets. It’s all coming to a head.”
---Heck, I thought 2013 was unusual, too.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to 2.64 percent from 3.03 percent at the end of December, defying economists who predicted a rise to 3.4 percent by year-end, based on a Bloomberg survey of banks."
---Can't recall exactly; but Goldman or JP Morgan or ??? had a published forecast/call in the spring of 2010 or 2011 that the 10yr T was going to 5.4% or so before the end of that year. A tough game, eh?
***Found Goldman's forecast notation from Dec. 2010 for year 2011:
Persistent upward pressure on market interest
rates, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes
reaching 3¾% by year-end 2011 and 4¼% by
year-end 2012.
Goldman Sachs 2011 Forecast paper
---the 10 year yield change is about 12.17%; which is quite a number when comparing to other YTD numbers from any equity/bond sectors. About the only near match for YTD are precious metals funds. Not counting 2 or 3X etf's or other inverse or specialty funds.
Oh, well; always an interesting playground.
Regards,
Catch