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The Bull Market Ends (Or Is It Just A Correction ?)
Think about this - the market has done what it has done over the last few years in the manner that it has done it. The idea of "risk" has been hoovered out of the market mentality thanks to an environment of easy monetary policy as far as the eye can see. The market pulls back - 3, 4%? - and everyone starts asking if it's all over. I think there are real problems (the issues in China and elsewhere), but you really see that it doesn't take that much before people start asking "is it all over?" Heaven forbid there's actually a 10% correction, people will start s***ing themselves.
List of some positives today: - Long term Treasuries - Metals as well as Miners - Home Builders (Sllghtly positive as of 3 pm) - Country Specific - Spain, MENA
A bigger down day for China and most EM countries. Many have been trending down over the last 50 - 200 days.
Reply to @bee: some REITs doing reasonably well. I'll also note that railcar leasing/manufacturing companies are gong nuts, thanks to possible regulations on upgrading cars, plus also thanks to an absolutely huge quarter from leasing company GATX (+17.5% on the day!) If you've seen a freight train, it probably had a GATX car on it.
It's always scary when it's happening, but to be honest, I welcome a pull back. When it does happen, I'd like to add to my global tech fund, PRGTX and to Europe in the form of OAKIX. If it's going to happen this year as most say, bring it on now!!!
I mentioned this earlier in the month, but many of the sentiment polls were at historic extremes of optimism. I was beginning to wonder if it was different this time (market sells off when everyone is bullish) but I guess not. Since 2009, bull market corrections like the one we are enduring end on a big up day where the NYSE advancing volume over declining volume is 9 to 1 and greater.
I'm thinking this market shift is kind of reassuring, in that the 'traditional' correlations (at least the ones I keep up with) seem to be back in play: stocks down, taxable high yield down but not as much, interest rate-sensitive bonds up.
Right at this point, though, the U.S. stock market situation isn't a lot different from what it's been a few times in the past year; the S&P 5c is just below the 50d (both sma and ema).
Comments
- Long term Treasuries
- Metals as well as Miners
- Home Builders (Sllghtly positive as of 3 pm)
- Country Specific - Spain, MENA
A bigger down day for China and most EM countries. Many have been trending down over the last 50 - 200 days.
Right at this point, though, the U.S. stock market situation isn't a lot different from what it's been a few times in the past year; the S&P 5c is just below the 50d (both sma and ema).