Meanwhile, Fidelity’s on hiring binge.
Re TRP …
- One might attribute the poor customer support to Covid restrictions. I accepted that for nearly a year before recognizing their problems were deeper seated. I’ve tried unsuccessfully to uncover if in recent years perhaps they’ve out-sourced their phone support? I ask because 10-15 years back it was fairly easy to get kicked up to a manager. And usually that resulted in substantive results - be it a direct from the top answer about operations or resolution of some personal beef. But in recent years there seemed no continuity to the phone support operations. As others may have noted, sometimes different reps appear to be working at cross-purpose.
- The “nasties” in customer support seem apart from their outstanding investing capabilities. And their stock price has soared - up about 35% YTD by one report . If you can save $$ on the customer support, that’s extra cash in the pockets of investors in the company.

If Vanguard has spent $1B on technology the results are thus far invisible to me, as in absolutely no difference over the past few years (except for glitches they have had to reverse). Meanwhile they have been disinvesting in customer service. Backasswards is right.

Investors are “asking for significant returns, and what we are seeing, perhaps because of the cultural fit between the U.K. and the U.S., is a lot of the P.E. money from the U.S. is finding homes in the U.K.,”

business/private-equity-uk
Anyone have a favorite UK Fund? My apologies for cursing, but check out DFUKX.

Golf is a good walk, spoiled.

Having caddied from the ages of 9-16 and played since I could walk, I've caddied for, seen, and played with a LOT of golfers.
So I know there's a LOT of truth in your comment for a LOT of people who attempt to play the game (and those who sadly end up in their groups).
Don't even get me started on what Ladies Day at our club looked like circa late 60's/early 70's. Note however their outfit color coordination, down to the tees in their shoe strings, was impeccable.
Here's hoping you and the rest of those walk spoilers stay off the courses!

You're welcome MikeW!
Just posted description of this month's updates here.
It includes Brad's latest addition to Ferguson Metrics. It's called Mega Ratio, which he describes as a consistency, risk and expense outperformance measure, similar to other adjusted return measures, like Sharpe.
He's kind enough to discuss his methodology at our next webinar, 15 September, at 10:30 am Pacific.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-is-headed-for-5-000-says-ubs-heres-the-when-and-how-11630407516?siteid=yhoof2
The S&P 500 is headed for 5,000, says UBS. Here’s the when and how.
On the last trading day of August, stock futures are pointing higher as markets look past downbeat economic news from China and continued COVID-19 contagion worries. It’s all part of a relentless march higher for stocks that barely paused this summer.
Unless we have Gama shutting us down like Australians for few months

TRP website lists the top 10 end of month holdings around a week or so into the following month. Not sure why TRP has not listed the asset allocation for PRWCX on the website recently while most other TRP funds do?

I've used secure messaging to avoid phone calls for non-urgent questions.
Borrowing a Flagship ID seems like a good hack to facilitate contact with an actual human being.

But as the Inky article points out, if you’re not a Flagship client you’re going to be SOL if you want to use secure messaging in the future. Seems kind of ass-backwards as more customer service moves to chat and secure messaging - I’ve had good luck using both at Fido and Schwab.

Here's a thought...you might want to access the TRP site (What? There is one? Who knew?) to get the latest published stock allocations as of 07/31/21 which was (if my addition is correct) 70.4%.
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRWCX?src=USIFundRedirect&adobe_mc_sdid=SDID=7593B66782D33635-0C1AF59A7D98C5A2|MCORGID=D15D15F354F647770A4C98A4@AdobeOrg|TS=1630353056&adobe_mc_ref=https://www.google.com/#content-portfolio
And if you are a poster/investor questioning Giroux's allocation decisions, you might want to go play a round of golf and think that through a bit.

The link I provided above (Fidelity) showed 68% in equity as of 6/30/21, which is the typical range he runs the fund. Comparing to the composition of the portfolio to a year ago, there is more defensive positions (11% utility) and cash.

The increase in people working from home is not the root cause for Vanguard's problems.
Dan Weiner's 'The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors' newsletter reported the following issues in the November 2019 issue:
computer "sucked" money from accounts without clients' permission
problems with two-factor authentication
unable to easily wire money from other brokers
email that 1099 tax forms were available sent several months after the fact
A Vanguard insider suggested the broad use of outside contractors may be a large part of the problem. Chairman Tim Buckley stated Vanguard is spending more than $1B on technology.
Is this money being spent wisely?

Yes @msf, I wasn't suggesting anything nefarious or against regulations. I just think that certain fund managers might get a 5-10 minute chat or a meet up that lesser known or renowned fund managers might not AND as you noted "where the way the response is phrased conveys information that goes beyond the disclosure itself" can speak volumes. Good point and thank you.

There are reports of long telephone wait times and incompetent agents at Vanguard.
Although I haven't needed to contact Vanguard often for assistance, they were helpful when I transferred my Roth IRA in 2019 and the transaction went smoothly. I like their secure messaging option for non-urgent issues which are not time-sensitive and have used it several times. Unfortunately, secure messaging will be phased out for those who are not Flagship clients or don't have accessibility needs.
“'I’m a huge fan of Vanguard,' added financial planner Allan S. Roth, based in Colorado.
However, in March, he wrote a column about how he experienced Vanguard returning hundred-thousand-dollar-plus checks, making mistakes in trust accounts, and messing up the distribution in his mother’s inherited IRA account."
Dan Wiener:
“The issue is when I have something that needs to be done, I can’t get it done at Vanguard, whether settling an estate, moving assets, making a gift.
It’s fine until it’s not.”
Link

Today the Fed (and other central banks across the globe) is part of the market.

This is a conclusion I adopted in February 2019 ( Powell Put ). It became clear to me at that point the Fed had given up on reviving traditional interest rates. The Fed and the stock market are for now co-dependent and planning to live in a somewhat lower interest rate world. The pandemic and the Fed's more inclusive employment mandate have further solidified this change. My portfolio allocation to bonds was 37% on 1/4/19. It is 25% today. That 12% difference has been allocated to higher yield stocks (3%+ YOC). (Time will report to me on the ongoing benefit of that change.)

Just a comment that anyone paying attention/owning, PRWCX would have noticed a definite change had occurred at LEAST early in the year as PRWCX started to lag a little (compared to earlier). The fund seemingly became more defensive/less volatile than had been the case. I think Giroux was a little early, but was apparently pulling in the reins on 'risk' well before now. I suspect a lot of this aforementioned "cutting" was taking place long ago. If he IS cutting further, I'd be interested to know what is replacing the equity!

What's replacing the equity? Apparently, CASH. Over 10% cash in the portf. by now, per Morningstar. Looks like he thinks the Market is overpriced, and he's right. In the meantime, we shareholders lose out on the current batch of lofty, frothy heights being reached by this over-stretched market. Seems to me that my stuff's been range-bound all year--- except for PRIDX, VERY recently. But I will, nevertheless, stick with Giroux.
Bond divs coming on 31st August......
Holdings: BRUFX PRWCX PRSNX RPSIX PRIDX PRDSX PTIAX ENIC.

You're welcome to attempt to calculate your own version of what the four factors contributed, over that same time period. What you will find is -
1) Once you have determined each of the four factors, and you attempt to multiply them, they will not equal the S&P 500's total return. Inconsistencies among your data sources do not permit such accuracy.
2) Thus, if you wish to complete the effort, you will be forced to make alter your results into order to make the numbers fit. These assumptions will introduce variances that will likely be as large as the difference betweent the multiplicative and additive approaches.
3) Shifting the time period that is studied by a year or two will have the same effect of changing the underlying factor results.
None of these items obscure the general pattern. Tinker with them all, and inflation still comes out as the largest factor, followed by profits, then dividends, then multiple expansion. But depending upon your choices, the individual numbers will vary.
It's an exercise with a margin of error, but that margin is not larger than the differences among the findings, assuming that the time period studied doesn't greatly change. (Except perhaps the role of profits vs. dividends.)

While they may have better access, since 2000 any information provided to them must also be made public.
SEC Regulation FD (fair disclosure)

The timing of the required public disclosure depends on whether the selective disclosure was intentional or non-intentional; for an intentional selective disclosure, the issuer must make public disclosure simultaneously; for a non-intentional disclosure, the issuer must make public disclosure promptly.

https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/33-7881.htm
I suspect that in actuality the managers with access still gain some advantage, though not as much as in the 20th century. Context, or insight as you put it, matters. The fund managers could be asking pointed questions where the way the response is phrased conveys information that goes beyond the disclosure itself.

Rather than lighten up on an already slim equity exposure, I bought a little DOG today. It’s 1% of total holdings and I do not intend to add to it. Not sure if this is going to work. But I think we’re over-due for a correction. Certainly don’t view it as a long term hold.
The SEC under Gensler is seeking public comment on the “gamification” of investing - ie: the online brokerages that promote frequent trading and the self-made investment online “gurus” who pocket millions a year advising the obedient herd who follow their recommendations - sometimes en masse. There are any number of articles in the financial press re Gensler’s mission. Kindly share your letters to Mr. Gensler with this board before sending them off. :)

Generally, I have been incrementally lowering the allocation and beta of my domestic portfolio and the opposite on the international side with an EM orientation. Playing sectors a bit more aggressively with rare earth/metals and semis (doing well) and EM Internet/E-Commerce (not so much). On the fixed income side 2:1 ratio low duration bonds to cash.
Do agree with several posters that market breadth during this advance seems muted and that caution is warranted.