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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FPACX VERSUS SOR
    Like our host David, I'm fond of FAPACX. However it has a high expense ratio and is not available as a transaction free fund. on Fidelity, Schwab or Vanguard. Now I'm aware that Fidelity has a good follow on purchase program for additional shares for the purchase price of $5 based on signing up for for a series of purchases. However you will not get the purchase done the day you sign up for the automatic investment. This is not desirable. I like to buy more shares on days the market drops.
    In addition you have to commit for additional purchases for designated purchases by date, time period and amount. Fidelity is lenient and will let you cancel the follow on purchase from what I have read.
    Now I've been buying SOR which is managed by the same advisors and appears to hold the same stocks. There bond portfolio is a little different but somewhat similar as SOR can buy less liquid structed credit. SOR's expense ratio is lower and 1.21 versus .97. In addition SOR is selling currently at an 8% discount to NAV. the only issue I have with SOR that it's daily volume is very low so the bid ask spread is wide. I generally place only limit orders to prevent unpleasant surprises.
    Is their any reason why I should buy FPACX instead of SOR?
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    I read somewhere that wage inflation is the inflationary trigger (indicator) to watch. It will be interesting to see where wages are once we get back to full employment. Today's low interest rates have already triggered real estate price inflation.
    Here's Larry Summer's Take on Impeding Higher Inflation:

  • C19 vacc side effects
    The Rubrik's Cube of Vaccine Manufacturing:
    Globally, vaccines are manufactured across drug firms’ existing networks and often need to pass through several countries - and even between continents - before they are ready to inject into arms. Within the EU alone, more than 30 plants from Sweden to Spain are involved in the production of COVID-19 vaccines. AstraZeneca says it has manufacturing capacity in 25 sites across 15 countries, in a chain of partnerships that one company executive likens to a Rubik’s Cube puzzle.
    us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-ins/as-vaccine-nationalism-deepens-governments-pay-to-bring-production-home
  • Gold down / Settles below the key $1,800 mark in 2nd day of losses
    Howdy folks,
    Nice discussion and Hank is spot on. The gold and silver markets are weird due to their very nature, particularly gold. For centuries it was basis for all currencies and while no longer legally so, it still impacts the actions of central banks and government treasuries.
    Physical bullion is traded in the commodity market while the miners are traded in the stock market. Is there some great conspiracy to depress the POG? I don't believe so. Never have. It's simply that if anyone has the power to legally move the market to their advantage - duh, they will. Human nature. Hank mentioned the bookies. Same thing.
    The demand equation is even more bizarre. Different between gold and silver but extremely diverse. Store of value, medium of exchange, survivalists, coin collectors, industrial, ad nauseum. Right now, there is a shift from gold to bitcoin for some of the store of value folks. That's fine and expected. There is also some of the EOTWAWKI crowd vis-a-vis the election and pandemic, selling some of their emergency hoard. That said, 2020 was a good year with gold up 25% and silver 48%.
    I'm still of the opinion that everyone should have between 3-7% of their wealth in the precious metals, preferably physical bullion in some form. More than this is speculation, which fine, but dicey due to the nature of the market. I have never attempted to time it or short term play it. I don't know enough. That said, I LOVE to momentum invest in it when the momentum exists - with my casino money.
    I have always preferred silver to gold, originally due to affordability and later due to experience. I worked restaurants in the mid-70's and bought all the 90% silver out of the till at face value. Then I went back to school to finish my degree in econ and paid for it with GI Bill and the proceeds of selling my silver stash into the Hunt Bros attempt to corner the market. OoohRah!
    What I noticed was the gold went up 3x while silver went up 10x and the spectacular gains were made in the junior mining stocks. This is how I played the Big Bonanza from 2002 to 2011, Heavy silver and heavier silver miners. The junior penny stock that have 5 digit ticker symbols. Nose bleed rascals that can easily move 10% up or down in a day.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • T Rowe Price's U.S. Equity Research ETF in registration
    In looking at the presumed fund that serves as the inspiration for the new ETF (PRCOX), it's remarkable how similar the PRCOX fund is to an S&P 500 Index fund. (But that's what it is designed to be- see Fact sheet, below.
    Sounds similar to the original Fidelity Disciplined Equity Fund (FDEQX) under Brad Lewis. Though that was a hybrid of quant and fundamental approaches:
    Using a highly disciplined approach to help identify these instruments and focusing on domestic companies with market capitalization of $100 million or more, FMR hopes to generate more capital growth than that of the S&P 500 while maintaining similar industry diversification.
    The disciplined approach involves computer-aided, quantitative analysis supported by fundamental research. ... The fund spreads investment risk by limiting its holdings in any one company or industry.
    1996 Fidelity Disciplined Equity Prospectus
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/275309/0000275309-94-000013.txt
    Finding the old marketing literature for the fund would take effort than it's worth, but as I recall it sounded even more similar to the TRP fund. It was supposed to be a fund that outperformed the S&P 500 by tweaking holdings while keeping roughly the same sector weightings. For example, it might substitute Coke for Pepsi. In comparison, Fidelity Stock Selector was supposed to have more flexibility in altering the weightings of different sectors.
  • T Rowe Price's U.S. Equity Research ETF in registration
    In looking at the presumed fund that serves as the inspiration for the new ETF (PRCOX), it's remarkable how similar the PRCOX fund is to an S&P 500 Index fund. (But that's what it is designed to be- see Fact sheet, below.)
    Yet, given a low (but non-trivial) fund expense ratio, the fund has managed to more than hold-its-own, while still paying for the (relatively) expensive costs associated with th emutual fund 'wrapper'.
    See the performance in the fund fact sheet, below.
    PRCOX Fact Sheet
    https://www.troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/quarterly-factsheet/sub-type/mf-single-class?productCode=COF&currency=USD
    The 'killer', of course, are the fund's tax costs, which can be seen at the M* page in link below. Depending on the period, PRCOX tax costs range from a) about the same as those for an S&P 500 index fund/ETF such as VFIAX; to b) about 50 bps or so more per year.
    Rollout as an ETF, with lower ER than the fund, and an ETF's tax efficiency, makes sense.
    M* Tax Costs
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=PRCOX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    Interesting articles by Schwartzer.
    What intrigues me is that Satoshi still has 1 million unspent bitcoin in his original wallet that he mined in 2008-09. That's worth $57 billion today! Of course, Satoshi could be an individual or a group of people; nobody knows.
    I'm also intrigued as to the timing of Bitcoin's development and launch - immediately following the crash of 2008-09 as stockmarkets were bottoming. Was this purposefully timed to quietly usher in a new method of financial transacting and accounting? I don't know or have any views, but I've read several theories for and against.
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @BenWP, interesting observation on EM. For now I stay put and watch the treasury yield as it is settling down this week. Read earlier that 10 years treasury will reach much higher than 1.5% by year end if inflation is rising. Nevertheless I am just watching ARK etfs. Have you considering the more value oriented EM funds instead of the growth type? They have been very volatile lately.
    @catch22, no bitcoins here as I don't understand the risk and reward aspect enough.
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    I used the word "averaging" and found various posts, but did find comments from OS about dollar cost averaging back into 2018. I didn't proceed from that point as I don't know what exactly you are looking for. I didn't have to travel but about 5 pages to begin to rind OS. I'm sure there are more from him going farther back, but am short of time today.
    NOTE: this is when using the "search" box at this site.
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    @carew338 & @Old_Joe : I think I found what I was looking for on DCA. Only the comments were for a falling market & I was wondering what the options were for a rising market.
    About 4 months ago I took about 8% of portfolio value & put 2 % in 4 different fund.
    I sold S&P out with a little over 5 % profit & now hold 3 value funds , small, mid, & large.
    Question now ,do I want to add to all three or just let them ride? If small value is leading the parade by a good bit, maybe just adding to mid & large would be the way to go.
    Anybody care to comment, Derf
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    Hi @Derf. OK, I tried the following approach:
    • Entered the following as the URL:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/profile/Old_Skeet
    That takes you to Old_Skeets profile page. <<< Use this link, if you want to.
    • On his profile page, upper left corner, choose "Comments"-
    (That will take you to a page listing comments made by Old_Skeet. Evidently he has made 3,165 comments, but you will only see one page of the latest.)
    • That listing can be expanded by clicking on "More Comments" at the lower right of the listing page. I did this a number of times, until I had a list that went all the way back to January 2020.
    • Once you have that list, then use the standard "Command F" key combination on your computer. That should bring up a "Find" box which will look at all of the text showing in Skeet's comments.
    I tried "DCA" in that box, no results to speak of. Then tried "Dollar"- again, a few hits but nothing about DCA.
    Not sure how else to find what you're looking for.
    OJ
  • The Teal Book
    Stacey Tevlin is the most important person in U.S. economics that you have probably never heard of. She leads a team of 357 people in the Federal Reserve’s Research and Statistics division, which is entrusted with the forecasts for policy makers as they weigh interest rates every six weeks.
    Her work appears in a document called the Teal Book, which is kept confidential for five years. She doesn’t go on television, give speeches, or even talk to reporters very often. Yet her team’s work has so much influence on the policy debate that one former Fed governor calls the staff forecast “the 13th member” of the Federal Open Market Committee.
    keeper-of-secret-teal-book-lifts-veil-on-new-forecast-era
  • Blast from the past "Old_Skeet" Low rate environment
    This leaves 15% of my cash in low to no yield places such as money market mutal funds and cash savings. My highest paying money market mutual fund PCOXX has paid out a measley yield of 0.53%. Carry this out and for the full years it projects to a yield of less than one percent.
    With this, I ponder ... What to do in my quest for better returns with some of my cash as it builds?
    Option 1) Sit tight and build cash while I await the next stock market dip (or pull back) where I can put an equity special investment position (spiff) into play. Generally, in the past, I'd look to make at least five percent off my spiffs when engaged. For me, this will work.
    Option 2) I can buy more of my commodity strategy fund (BCSAX) which has a yield of better than 2% and as inflation rises usually the price of commodities rise. This fund holds some gold and gold mining stocks as well. It should do well if the US Dollar continues to decline and the price of commodities rise. For me, this will work.
    Option 3) I can buy more of my real estate income fund (FRINX). As the US Dollar declines generally real estate values increase plus long term this would act as a hedge against inflation. Woops already have a full allocation to real estate and high yield securites. No go here.
    Option 4) Buy more of my convertible (FISCX) and preffered (PFANX) securities funds. Hold up ... already have a full allocation there.
    Option 5) Buy more in my asset allocation funds and let my fund managers find opportunity. This would also work because it would spread the funds's asset mix among those I'm already invested in thus maintaining my asset allocation. Two funds that I'm thinking of are CFIAX & INPAX.
    So, for me, going forward, over the near term, it looks like my better choices are numbers 1, 2, & 5 of the options I covered.
    I am also wondering what you might have thought of and where you might be positioning new money in this low yield environment?
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    I am ... Old_Skeet
    Stay Safe , Derf
  • Small Cap Value
    RE: US News Rankings...
    You really don't need to go any further than looking at their #1 ranked SCV fund, DFFVX.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=DFFVX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    How is a M* 3* fund that ranked in its SCV category
    2011-YTD
    72-23-10-65-46-40-40-55-52-45-24
    even REMOTELY regarded as Best in Class?
    Seriously, ONCE in the Top Ten percentile in 11 years, and it's magically the #1 ranked SCV fund?
    This is NOT a one-off comparison. I've made these comparisons for YEARS with their rankings and I've NEVER been able to justify any more than a glance at them.
    Kind of reminds me of some of the old stock "Supervised Lists" from back in the 80's, some of which required the company to fund the inclusion of their stock on the list, if you get my drift.
  • Small Cap Value
    Here is US News' rankings of small cap value funds:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/small-value
    BRSIX is #2
    BRSVX is #5
    RYPNX is #6
    QRSVX is #14
    NSMVX is #21
    PZISX is #29
    PVFIX is #36
    RYSEX is #38
    LSVQX is #39
    NSDVX is #48
    THBVX is considered a small blend fund based on this (which I also own):
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=THBVX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    PVIVX is a small blend fund also based on this:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=pvivx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    ASVIX is a small cap value fund based on this:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=asvix&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    @catch22 : 4 or 5 pages provided these ; midcap-broadcast-wildcard- childcare- smidcap-Fidca !!!!! Do you see where I'm coming from ?
    Have a good day , Derf
  • 10 High-Yield ETFs for Income-Minded Investors
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/etfs/602375/high-yield-etfs-for-income-investors
    *10 High-Yield ETFs for Income-Minded Investors
    These high-yield ETFs show that there's no shortage of ways to balance risk and reward in the quest for better-than-average income.*
    -SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD,)
    -Invesco KBW High Dividend Yield Financial ETF (KBWD)
    -Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ,)
    _Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF (SRET)
    - iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC)
    -Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP)
    -Amplify High Income ETF (YYY)
    -iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY)
    -Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond (vwob)
    -Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD)
    We have couple of these
    Real estates / energy and bank sector are doing quite well posted c19
    Will look more at YYY (carefully) and vwib, may get vwib
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    Going oppo here...
    Seems that Steve Romick, FPA has had a great investing career...has outperformed the SP500 and VWELX with less drawdown over his tenure
    Who else has had the staying power and adaptability to roll with the times??
    Baseball Fan
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    When you cannot beat them, maybe reasonable to join them/ add small amounts at a time. Don't bet the whole house but just *play money* like going Vegas
    Our bitcoin GBTC holding comprise ~ 0.0005% of portfolio. You may expect loose the whole house on Bitcoin.