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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard to Lower Target Retirement Fund Costs
    More analysis:
    MARMX Max Drawdown 2008 -13.90% vs VTINX -17.77%. 10/09/07-3/09/09
    MARMX Max Drawdown 2020 -9.54% vs VTINX -12.48%. 2/19/20-3/23/20
    Since inception 12/2007 - 9/2021:
    MARMX CAGR 5.34% vs VTINX 5.25%. With less equity (according to you).
    MARMX Sharpe 1.05 vs VTINX 0.83%
    MARMX SD 4.48% vs VTINX 5.66%
    5 and 10 year star rating identical although frequently meaningless IMO.
    Substantial difference in 3 yr SD MARMX 5.12% vs VTINX 6.18%.
    I would need it in a brokerage not direct. I like them both.
  • FSRRX
    “FSRRX may be a fund of interest to those who believe that inflation is a concern or that rates may rise. It has had a maximum drawdown of nearly 15% over the past five years with an average annual return of over 5%. The yield is about 2 percent.”
    Yes - But the max drawdown (14.5%) appears to have come in a single quarter (Qtr 1 2020). By contrast, Price’s TMSRX lost 3.2% over that quarter. To be fair, that brief period was particularly cruel to funds holding certain types of fixed income, as a severe liquidity crunch threatened until emergency measures by the Fed to prop up corporate debt were undertaken.
    Not to suggest FSRRX sn’t still a fine fund. Just to say that along with 2008 (if a fund’s history extends back that far), Qtr 1 of 2020 is another place to look if seeking out maximum historical volatility.
    For the roughly 30% of portfolio devoted to “alternatives” I like to include at least 2 (preferably 3) different funds, as the approaches and success achieved under varying market conditions vary greatly among the alternatives. None, AFAIK, have perfected the “secret sauce” for managing risk in down markets.
  • FSRRX
    Thanks @msf...great stuff.
    FSRRX, which has been in existence since 2005 and was tested very early in it's short life when in June of 2008 it slide nearly 32%. Comparing FSRRX to PRRRX, the Pimco Real Return fund provides a smoother ride. PRRRX also proved itself better choice than a pure TIPS etf (TIPS).
    I guess my biggest complaint about FSRRX is its periodic drawdown that long term investors would be negatively impacted by.
    image
  • FSRRX
    That piece is arguing that at best, VWINX will fall less than other traditional funds, e.g. since it leans toward value¹. That's in contrast to funds that are designed to benefit from inflation. Which is why I felt that it doesn't make much sense to directly compare performance of these two types of funds.
    ¹This is not unusual for traditional 40/60 funds. Only 4 out of 120 (30%-50% allocation) funds have portfolios that are in growth style boxes (per M* screener).
    The writer speaks in sweeping generalities without substantiation:
    • the fact that the Fed Funds rate will stay at or near zero for at least the next few years [as of Sept 2020].
      Facts don't change, but predictions do as events change or more data is known. In June, "The central bank forecast[] it would raise interest rates twice by the end of 2023 after previously estimating there would be no interest rate hike until 2024."
      Most recently (Sept), "Just over 70 per cent of [leading academic economists surveyed by FT] believe the Fed will raise rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point in 2022, with almost 20 per cent expecting the move to come in the first six months of the year. That is far earlier than the 2023 lift-off from today’s near-zero levels that Fed officials pencilled in back in June."
    • Higher inflation likely leads to higher interest rates and a steeper yield curve?
      Wellesley traditionally holds a longer duration portfolio than is typical for its peers. That would hurt Wellesley if you believe this generalization linking interest rates and yield curves and that it will hold the next time.
      However, when we look at the last sharp spike in interest rates (1978-1981) we see a very different picture. Rate going up across all maturities (which would hurt all high grade bonds), but with the yield curve inverting - the opposite of steepening. (Inverted yield curves often presage recessions, which in turn can be triggered by high inflation and lower spending.)
      image
      (Source page)
    Speaking of the late 70s and inverted yield curves, banks (notably S&Ls) took a beating, as they lent out long term money at lower rates while borrowing short term money (via deposit accounts) at higher rates. SA notes that VWINX concentrates on financials, but doesn't break it down further. (According to its latest semiannual report, about half of the fund's financial sector holdings are in banks: JPM, BAC, MS, TFC.) Personally, I have faith in Wellington Management to navigate this risk.
    M* has an actual analysis of real performance data for VWINX to see how the fund responds to rising interest rates.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1041732/stress-testing-some-vanguard-and-t-rowe-allocation-funds
    What M* found was that Aug-Dec 2016, "as the price of long-dated bonds fell, Vanguard Wellesley Income lagged its average category peer by 1.2 percentage points." VWINX lost money over that period while on average its peers eeked out gains.
    OTOH, "over the more recent January-October 2018 interest-rate climb ... [VWINX] modestly outpaced the average of that group by 0.5 percentage points. Even with its longer duration, the strategy’s lower exposure to weaker-performing non-U.S. equities gave it a bump.
    Hmm, a lesser exposure to foreign equities. SA didn't pick up on this. Could help again if rates climb globally, but hurt if rates rise disproportionately in the US. Regardless, we're again talking about relative performance against peers, not measuring against inflation oriented funds.
    I certainly wouldn't sell VWINX. Though that's different from saying that this fund is designed to weather extended bouts of inflation well.
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Slightly negative, mostly muted dip in DJIA and S&P futures in first 10 minutes after release of surprisingly weaker than expected Sept UE report. NASDAQ futures actually improving.
    As the data gets digested, futures are recovering back to near pre-release levels.
    Initial reaction from some talking heads:
    Suggest weak report opens door for more Fed flexibility in taper timing.
    Effectively, a non-event, which is likely good news for equity markets.
    If your BIG THREE risks were debt limit, employment and FED, you are now down to one, again, for the time being.
    BEWARE the noise.
  • FSRRX
    While I'm a big fan of VWINX, I don't feel that comparing it with funds that are very different in composition is quite cricket. VWINX has had a 40 year tailwind (falling yields), while real return funds have had a headwind over the same time frame - years of moderate to low inflation.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year
    Should inflation pick up (OP: " I don't see how we can avoid inflation"), this could all flip. Unfortunately, what appears to be the granddaddy of inflation friendly funds, PRPFX, goes back only to 1982, after inflation started receding. So one can't look easily to historical data.
    Here's a recent M* column suggesting 22 funds that could be considered diversified real asset funds designed to handle bouts of inflation:
    Now's the Time to Consider These Inflation Protection Strategies

    I can't disagree with the view that inflation seems inevitable (starting with wage inflation because of the difficulty hiring these days)...but OTOH I can recall commentators throwing darts at VWINX for at least a decade over the same concern (granted, with minimal inflation headwinds over that stretch). It's navigated pretty well, including this year. Gun to head, VWINX still beats real asset funds over the next decade, even if inflation pans out to a foreseeable extent. My personal strategy is to hold VWINX as a core holding, never sold a share, but supplement with GUNR when opportunity permits.
  • Cathie Wood Moving ARK to Florida
    “ARK Investment Management LLC, said Wednesday that it will permanently close its New York headquarters at the end of the month and move to St. Petersburg, Fla., on Nov. 1. Known for its line of exchange-traded funds that invest in companies deemed disruptive and innovative in their industries, ARK said it aims to deepen ties with local entrepreneurs and technology startups by also building an innovation center.
    ‘ARK is not a traditional Wall Street asset management firm and we are looking forward to breaking the mold further by relocating to St. Petersburg, a city investing in technology, science, and innovation,’ Ms. Wood said in a statement.”

    WSJ (subscription required)
  • FSRRX
    While I'm a big fan of VWINX, I don't feel that comparing it with funds that are very different in composition is quite cricket. VWINX has had a 40 year tailwind (falling yields), while real return funds have had a headwind over the same time frame - years of moderate to low inflation.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year
    Should inflation pick up (OP: " I don't see how we can avoid inflation"), this could all flip. Unfortunately, what appears to be the granddaddy of inflation friendly funds, PRPFX, goes back only to 1982, after inflation started receding. So one can't look easily to historical data.
    Here's a recent M* column suggesting 22 funds that could be considered diversified real asset funds designed to handle bouts of inflation:
    Now's the Time to Consider These Inflation Protection Strategies
  • Vanguard to Lower Target Retirement Fund Costs
    I'd be inclined to pass on MARMX. If you really want to purchase it, it's available through some annuities, e.g. Mutual of America's individual retirement annuity (IRA).
    More completely:
    The Investment Company offers shares in the Funds to the Insurance Companies, without sales charge, for allocation to their Separate Accounts. See your variable annuity or variable life insurance prospectus ... Shares of the Funds are also offered through retirement plans. See your Summary Plan Description or consult with your plan sponsor for information on how to purchase shares of the Funds through your retirement plan
    https://connect.rightprospectus.com/MutualofAmerica/TADF/62824C842/FS?site=NAV#
    (click on statutory prospectus)
    Here's MARMX's legacy risk/reward page. One can enter VTINX to compare the funds on these metrics.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=MARMX
    Over the past three years, VTINX has produced better returns (Average vs. Below Average) albeit with higher risk (Average vs. Below Average), leading to a three year 4 star rating (vs. 2 stars for MARMX).
    VTINX has superior 3 year returns (7.53% vs. 6.27%) albeit with more volatility (6.25 vs 5.18) leading to nearly identical Sharpe and Sortino ratios.
    All of which is about what one would expect when comparing a fund with a 30% target equity allocation (VTINX) to a a fund with a target 25% equity allocation (MARMX).
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Its been a weird month where Energy boomed and everything else was sorta sagging.
    1 MONTH RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
    -6.3 % Healthcare
    -5.3 Real Estate
    -5.3 Utilities
    - 5 Basic Materials
    -4.2 Communication Services
    -4.2 Technology
    -3.7 Consumer Defensive
    -2.5 Consumer Cyclical
    -1.5 Industrials
    +13.9 Energy
    + 1.6 Financial
  • Vanguard to Lower Target Retirement Fund Costs
    In my TIAA retirement account, VTHRX, for example, costs me .14%.
  • Will President Biden’s economic stimulus cause inflation? Economists are unsure
    Note the language in the original story that the survey of economists was done by "the Initiative on Global Markets Forum (the University of Chicago Booth School of Business." These are Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and Stanford economists surveyed by a business school--not exactly bastions of radical leftwing ideology. Dalio has a particular world view, which slants towards Ayn Rand, yet even he recently acknowledged something has to be done about inequality. But his economic predictions have been wrong in the past, in fact quite recently: https://bloombergquint.com/business/for-bridgewater-a-year-of-losses-withdrawals-and-uneasy-staff And hedge fund/money managers in general have had a particular anti-Keynesian libertarian slant that has proven them wrong many times: https://theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/if-hedge-funders-are-so-smart-why-are-they-so-relentlessly-wrong/275700/ The thing is educated people disagree on this subject of inflation, but one thing the stats show is that the notion that there is a one-to-one correlation between the money supply and fiscal spending with inflation is a political fallacy. The causes are complex. I've posted this before but it's worth reposting: https://gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-inflation--tall-tales-and-true-causes/
    Moreover, I would add, as you mentioned, that depending on one's perspective inflation isn't all bad, depending on the kind, size and duration of inflation. A lot of money managers dread wage inflation, and it may be the source of real broader inflation. But I think wages for average Americans have stagnated for decades on a real inflation-adjusted basis and have actually declined since the 1970s for the lowest paid workers. Some wage inflation even if it filtered into the rest of the CPI would be a good thing for many people. A higher minimum wage is absolutely in order.
    But the thing I would stress is that no one really knows whether the current economic policies will bring about a period of extended high inflation, and the fearmongering from the rightwing has less to do with economic reality than concerns about having to pay workers more and their taxes potentially going up. The truest response in perhaps the most unsettling one: We just don't know. In fact, inflation from my perspective may be more influenced by Covid-inspired global supply shortages than monetary or fiscal policy.
    Interestingly, from a leftwing MMT perspective you can hear some very different viewpoints from the prevailing ones in the original survey in this interview with Stephanie Kelton who wrote The Deficit Myth: https://dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/monetary-mythbusting-an-interview-with-stephanie-kelton
  • FSRRX
    My apologize, but are you trying to create a catastrophe or avoid one with FSRRX?
    Here are FSRRX stats (source Portfolio Visualizer):
    image
    FSRRX has had no clear advantage over a conservatively allocated fund similar to VWINX.
    It's almost 32% draw down in July of 2008 took over 2 years to dig out of. It Real return (after inflation) is barely 2% over the last 15 years. I believe Fidelity offers MM Mutual funds that might achieve this.
    As a hedge against bad outcomes what about PRPFX..not perfect but better at dealing with equity market catastrophes.
    image
  • FSRRX
    @ron : This isn't a bond fund 23% stock 52% bond 17-19 % (?) other. Max draw-down 14%.
    Derf
  • Will President Biden’s economic stimulus cause inflation? Economists are unsure
    @LewisBraham
    Your last entry reminds me of Ray Dalio's presentation on "How the Economic Machine Works". I recall one quote form his presentation that goes something like:
    "One man's debt (liability) is another man's income (asset)"
    Debt creates what he describes as the long and short term debt cycles. Individuals need to service (repay) there debt (Principal & interest) to the borrower (usually the bank). An arrangement exists whereby the government injects liquidity into the system at a very low interest rate (overnight bank rate). The bank in turns loans this liquidity (money) to individuals and corporations so that they can receive and offer goods and services.
    The money loaned to individuals and corporations needs to be repaid to the bank (both principal and interest). The money borrowed by the bank is only repaid to the government to the extent that it is borrowed and the banks only outlay is the overnight rate of interest. The government repo's (soaks up) any liquidity (borrowed money) that was not used by the bank to extend credit to credit worthy borrowers.
    If credit worthy borrowers add value (labor, innovation, good & services, demand for financial assets) they are able to both pay back the bank and grow the economy. It all works.
    When borrowers default, the systems grinds to a halt.
    I'm sure you understand all of this, but too many (myself included) Ray Dalio does a great job explaining it all (see video below).
    Getting back to inflation. It seems a strong economy should both inflate (have elements good inflation) and deflate (have elements good deflation) simultaneously (would be nice).
    IMHO, Biden's bill should be looked at through that lens.
    When is Inflation good?
    how-can-inflation-be-good-economy
    why-is-inflation-good
    When is Deflation good?
    can-deflation-be-good
    Ray Dalio's Presentation:

  • The 90/10 Rule - Pre and Post Retirement Thinking
    In preparation for retirement, most people spend 90% of their planning time on the financial issues and 10% on the non-financial issues. After retirement, the ratio reverses, and most retirees spend the vast majority of their time focusing on the non-financial issues of life
    Seems like a article worth sharing. Lots of links to other topics for both young (Pre-retirees) and Old (In-retirees).
    introducing-the-90-10-rule-of-retirement
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    BOT a wee bit more ITOT near the Open yesterday before the market recovered. Also added to VGWAX before yesterday's close to catch the expected uptick in foreign markets today. That may do it for me for on BTDip/Diplet activity for the time being at least.
    So...
    Fear is subsiding. Major averages will be back within ~1% of their 50dma's at the Open today. This of course ain't over until it the S&P for one breaks above its 50 and stays there this time.
    Here's free FX T/A from this AM:
    https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/e-mini-sp-500-index-es-futures-technical-analysis-decision-time-for-buyers-at-4399-75-4432-75-785432
    EDIT to add:
    And from after the close. Big day tomorrow.
    https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/sp-500-price-forecast-stock-markets-get-boost-heading-into-jobs-number-785509