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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    - “Assuming your question is in good faith and not a rabbit hole invitation...”
    Why would I waste my time misleading people? My question was intended for MFO board members in total who share an immense amount of combined investment wisdom and experience.
    - “Other posters have presented studies to show it does NOT work. I've argued that such studies produce statistics that support the Three Kinds of Lies.”
    Arguments others may have made to the contrary need not be characterized as lies. It is possible for good and rational people to view the same evidence and arrive at different conclusions.
    - “What categories of stocks were bought?”
    It’s a fair point - but somewhere outside the focus of @Derf’s question which I took to be related more to the broad-based U.S. equity indexes. There are always pockets of value in any market. A separate thread on that question might generate much interest.
    - “What about taxes on the sale of assets used to BTD? Were Dip BUYs ultimately SOLD and gains realized?
    Again - we’re stretching the intent of Derf’s original question. Many here invest in tax-sheltered accounts like 401-Ks and some others, including self, hold substantial amounts in Roth’s which are tax exempt. I’d expect Derf’s question and responses to it to be relevant to those investors as well.
    - “Every Dip I bought (at or near the low point of each Dip
    Therein lies the crux of the issue. What verifiable formula, measurement, or other objective criteria exists to inform an investor when it’s appropriate to buy a dip and when it wouldn’t be?
    - “BTD in bonds for me right now is akin to playing a not-so-friendly game Russian roulette.”
    Fair enough. I like the analogy. But the same might be said of buying the S&P or other broad-basket of equities at elevated prices.
    - “ALL BUYs remain invested in broad basket US stocks.”
    This would seem to contradict point #3.
    - “BUT much of my gains would evaporate (at least temporarily) in a SEVERE market crash.”
    I think that’s what most who have responded to the question are concerned about.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    The YTD column of a Fido search of ALL taxable and muni bonds will show you where investors should have been invested in bonds in 2021, and likely where they should be in the coming months-to-possibly year.
    FWIW, I've owned several of the funds listed on this thread in the past but only have faith in/still hold ONE of them currently. It's my worst performing bond fund YTD, albeit still up a few %.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    Thanks Edmond...great insights! Full disclosure, our household has 3 retirement accounts currently - IRA Rollover (Me), IRA Rollover (Wife) and a 401k (Me at my current Employer)
    The 3 Bond Funds I own (1 in each) are DODIX, BCOIX and GIBLX...
    GIBLX is in my 401k and this account s my active/tactical account where I take more risk and move $$$ around. The Rollovers are pretty stable and I like to make minor adjustments.
    Next move is to find a Fund to pair with GIBLX in my 401k...I've owned PIMIX in the past and have looked at PTIAX too. I have been tracking TCEIX but I can get that exposure with PIMIX...
    Bond Funds are not as easy to research with their returns all muted in the past 5 years and not knowing whats under the hood. Cash isn't cash and Gov't issues could be multiple securities. Derivatives, Sovereign/Non-Dollar denominated debt...
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    The 5.9% COLA will be applied to your Gross SS Bene.
    Backing into your Bene from what you just posted, and assuming you ONLY have Pt B deducted, here are the rough estimates...
    2021 Gross Bene: $1,146.00+148.50=1,294.50
    2022 Gross Bene $1,294.50*1.059=$1,370.88
    2022 Net Bene: $1,370.88-158.50**=$1,212.38
    2022 Increase: $1,212-$1,146.00=$66.00
    ** = ESTIMATED Pt B Premium deduction per
    https://www.medicareresources.org/faqs/how-much-does-medicare-part-b-cost/
    See also latest posts on:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58777/ss-increase-what-to-do#latest
    Disclaimer: The above is calc'd based on what you just posted, the assumption that you only have the standard Pt B amount deducted and the referenced 2022 Pt B estimate.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    $1,146 is my net SS monthly, after Medicare takes their cut. 5.9% increase, if I recall from a few days ago, is $67.00...... $1,146 plus $67.00 = $1,213.00. What's my monthly SS payment going to be?
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    KHaw -- with Tad Rivelle leaving 12/2022, I'd be looking to leave too.
    Baird and D&C are both very good funds. WRT funds at Fido, here are a couple core/core+ funds you may wish to consider/evaluate as to suitability:
    GIBLX. These guys tend more to make "high conviction" (read riskier) bets then some other funds. Nothing too wild. And they are usually right, if not immediately, then eventually.
    PTIAX = I like the way these guys think/explain their positions. They tend to own pieces of the bond market which other funds don't. To that extent they could serve as a diversifier vs. other bond fund positions.
    OMBAX. (mortgage) Actively-managed, since there is little credit risk/spreads, the managers throttle portfolio duration up/down depending on their outlook for the direction of rates. They are adept at this. I've been using this (along with another fund I will discuss below) as a place to park cash for a couple years. Duration is presently less than 1/2 of the AGG. It has discretion to shift duration 2-10 years. They generally take on duration ONLY when they are compensated to do so.
    I think PIMCO funds should be given careful consideration. PIMCO is Bill Gross' enduring legacy. Fidelity offers "A" shares. If you have serious money in bond funds, I would encourage buying institutional-class shares. Many are available at Wellsfargo/Wellstrade for no minimums.
    PIMIX - my longest-lived, and 2nd largest fund position. As a multi-sector fund, its more volatile than the "core-plus" funds. But its returns justify the modestly higher volatility.
    PTRIX (mortgage). My largest bond position. Its among the least-known of PIMCO funds - M* perennially mis-classifies the fund as 'core-plus". Because of its low risk profile its returns seem paltry vs much riskier "core-plus" offerings. PTRIX is really a short/inter govt fund. Like OMBAX (mentioned above), the managers make tactical interest rate bets. They excel at this. Duration moves 1-7 years. This fund is a bit more "free wheeling" than its sister GNMA fund PDMIX. Slightly better returns, edges out just a wee bit more on the risk scale with more non-agencies. Still, very safe. -- For those thinking "mortgages=BORING", keep in mind the "core bond funds" (MWTRX, PTTRX, etc) have been largely managed to be extremely safe "cash like" funds since the GFC. In the past 5 or so years, PTRIX has earned MWTRX-like returns with only 2/3 of the volatility...
    good luck!
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    If you like FMSDX for less risk and it's reported 3.07% yield then you might want to consider this from Jim Sloan at SeekingAlpha:
    The I Bond Yield Just Hit 5.33% And Beats All Other Safe Assets; Buy Before November 1
  • SS increase: what to do
    "In 2021, Part B increased 2.70% to $148.50 monthly from $144.60. Annually that was a $47 increase."
    That is correct, but remember that the 2021 was supposed to be four times this amount or $15.60 ($3.90 x 4). It was limited to 25% by the law that was passed to help with Covid (can't remember the law's official name).
    ----------------------
    stillers: As my wife likes to say, "Good remembering!" Here's an article about that from 09/21/20:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/congress-may-limit-medicare-part-b-premium-increase-for-2021-.html
    ------------------------
    It is my understanding that this will be deducted this year in addition to the new calculated amount for 2022, so whatever this year's amount calculates out to, this $11.70 ($3.90 x 3) will be added as well. Of course, this assumes that your particular SS benefit increase exceeds this Medicare increase, otherwise you are held harmless.
    ----------------------------
    stillers: Not sure how that's your "understanding " of that. I've never seen that written but I could have missed it. Do you have a reference/link? Having worked in other areas of the Program for a coupla decades, it would knock me off my chair to learn that was correct, or even contemplated as something that could pass, or pass-through, as it were. But I digress.
    All that aside, and cutting to the chase, here's medicareresources.org's take on it as of 10/05/21:
    https://www.medicareresources.org/faqs/how-much-does-medicare-part-b-cost/
    Excerpts:
    Medicare Part B costs: key takeaways
    Standard Part B premiums are $148.50/month in 2021; projected to be $158.50/month in 2022...
    ...As described below, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment can sometimes limit the increase in Part B premiums, but that’s not expected to be the case for 2022, as the COLA is expected to be historically large.
    The Part B premium increase from 2020 to 2021 was smaller than initially projected, thanks to a short-term government spending bill that was enacted in the fall of 2020, and that included a provision to cap the increase in the Part B premium for 2021.

    That ($158.50-148.50 or) $10 increase is in line with some other estimates I've seen and does not quite compute with what you posted.
    And in relation to the subject of my post, a response to another poster's comment, "Medicare will eat it anyhow," even if correct, the absolute Medicare Pt B increase in 2022 will be small relative to the SS COLA increase for the vast majority of recipients.
    -----------------------------
    Just my two cents worth
    -------------------
    stillers: As we used to say in the bizness, "Noted."
    -------------------
  • Rising Rates Are Not Likely To Trash Your Bond Returns
    Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981.
    I remembered my parents were buying CDs that pay double digit dividends. The inflation was very high in the 70-80's. This year the 10-year treasury has been steady rising over 1.50% as inflation way exceeded the 2% threshold. The consumer price is considerable higher than 2%.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @lynnbolin2021, thank you for your articles. I too have been reducing risk and using more asset allocation funds including FMSDX. Just want to simply life. Your research helped considerably to narrow down the vast choices available.
    Note that the bond portion of FMSDX has a longer duration of 8.3 years than many intermediate term bonds, in the range of 5-6 years. This fund holds several bond sectors ranging from treasury to EM debts. Rate hike may impact this fund more than those funds with shorter duration.
  • SS increase: what to do
    "In 2021, Part B increased 2.70% to $148.50 monthly from $144.60. Annually that was a $47 increase."
    That is correct, but remember that the 2021 was supposed to be four times this amount or $15.60 ($3.90 x 4). It was limited to 25% by the law that was passed to help with Covid (can't remember the law's official name).
    It is my understanding that this will be deducted this year in addition to the new calculated amount for 2022, so whatever this year's amount calculates out to, this $11.70 ($3.90 x 3) will be added as well. Of course, this assumes that your particular SS benefit increase exceeds this Medicare increase, otherwise you are held harmless.
    Just my two cents worth
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    Many years ago, one could get into MWTIX at Fidelity at mere mortal mins (not the current $3M). With the lower ER of MWTIX, the fund might be worth holding. But between the higher ER of MWTRX, the fact that Rivelle will be retiring next year, and the fund's asset bloat, it's likely time to leave.
    You might take a look at FTBFX. As a Fidelity fund, the short term/excessive trading restrictions are different than non-Fidelity funds at Fidelity. Not a criterion I would use for a fund in this category, but still a differentiator. And a fine fund generally.
    A fund that was brought up recently in another thread is WCPNX. It's having a spectacular 2021 (for a bond fund). Though if one disregards the past year, most of the funds you're looking at (with the notable exception of MWTRX) have had similar returns over the lifetime of WCPNX.
    So the question is whether this past year is an anomaly or a sign of better things to come. Note that it has the highest volatility of the funds mentioned.
    Which brings us to the criterion of risk. You referenced it implicitly ("love the consistency"); it's worth calling out as an explicit criterion. Here's a page that should help make comparing risk metrics on various funds easy:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=BCOIX
    What I notice when I drop in some other funds is that BCOIX tends to be a bit above average (compared with the other funds I'm looking at) in risk - a higher (but not highest) standard deviation (MWTRX is toward the lowest) resulting in slightly lower Sharpe and Sortino ratios.
    Regarding credit risk - M* has an interesting way of calculating risk. Instead of assigning 1 to A rated bonds, 2 to B rated bonds, and so on, M* assigns numbers to each credit rating based on how sensitive bonds with that rating are to market changes. It turns out that BBB bonds are much more sensitive than A bonds. So a few BBB bonds can pull the down average credit rating of a whole portfolio.
    I like this way of computing the average credit rating of a portfolio, but many do not. 68% of the bonds in MTWRX are rated AAA, nearly 80% are A or better. And only about 6% are junk. But that smattering of junk is enough to pull its portfolio credit rating down to BBB.
    In contrast, BCOIX has only 46% of bonds rated AAA, and 65% are A or better. But since it has only about 4% in junk bonds, those A (or better) bonds are good enough to keep the fund's average rating at an A.
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    Ugh! Nobody's dancing here over our recent Dip/Diplet BUYs as the gains are still negligible and the ST verdict ain't in yet. That said, we have partied pretty hard over the six prior BTDs we've participated in since March 2020, all of which are UP 10%-60%.
    But that's NOT the point.
    The point is ALL investors have a choice with Dips/Diplets, as we have EVERY day of the year with/without them: BUY, SELL or HOLD.
    If you bought this last Dip/Diplet, things are looking good. Stories of the the demise of the BTD strategy seem to have (once again) been greatly exaggerated.
    We'll cross over the 50dma today and sights will be set on the most recent S&P high of 4536, 2.2% higher than THU's close.
    If you SOLD the most recent Dip/Diplet, I kindly suggest you address the question, "What do I do now that the market has just about fully recovered?"
    BTW, that answer should have already been in your investment strategy with specifics on the execution of your strategy at a pre-described time/level. If it wasn't, kindly suggest you put it in there now.
    Not the best, but it's FREE:
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/p-500-price-forecast-p-163010316.html
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    I've been researching via Fidelity and M* for alternatives to MWTRX. I've owned the fund for several years but with performance pretty close due to current market conditions in Fixed Inc, I'm always 'shopping'. Duration, Avg Maturity, Bond Ratings and Expenses are what I've been focused on.
    The 2 Int Core Plus Funds that I have zeroed in on are BCOIX and DODIX. I alraedy own DODIX in an IRA Rollover and love the consistency. Other OEF's I've researched are Western, Pru, American, Pimco etc...I worked for Pru for years so I know their funds intimately.
    Any other criteria and ideas that you like as much or more than BCOIX? The expense ration alone is more than 1/2 what MWTRX is along with higher credit quality.
    Thanks in advance!
  • All that glitters is not gold
    @orage - Thanks for insights on I Bonds. Whatever floats your boat. Gives me a chance to say the metals have popped - pretty much across the board. Gold’s been rising now for a couple weeks, making up for at least a month’s recent decline. Around $1800 again after flirting with $1700. Miners, against the recent trend, have been outperforming the metals of late. Up better than 2% on average today. Silver’s doing even better lately.
    (Delete)
    Should add -It’s not just the precious metals that have perked up. Seems many industrial metals (like copper & aluminum) have gone ballistic. Not sure how to classify platinum - as it has industrial uses - but it has also turned up lately.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    Read this with interest: https://www.barrons.com/articles/multi-asset-income-fund-51634081480
    FMSDX- A Flexible Fund for Income-Hungry Investors via Barrons
    “ The challenge with such a flexible strategy is having the analytical skills to cover such a diverse mix of securities. Luckily, Kramer has a deep bench supporting him. “We have $122 billion of assets under management in this [High Income and Alternatives] group,” he says. Of the group’s 62 investment professionals, 35 of them are in research, he adds. Kramer has two co-managers on Multi-Asset Income: Ford O’Neil, who also works with Kramer on the bond-focused Fidelity Strategic Income (FADMX), and Ramona Persaud, who runs the dividend-stock-focused Fidelity Equity-Income (FEQIX).”
    “ But he prefers being “agnostic” as to investment style and asset class, finding the undiscovered value in any kind of security.”
    Seems to be working just fine.
  • TSHIX
    Check out WBALX for a solid 30%- 50% alloc fund.

    I did quickly, and while the equity part of WBALX may be "solid", I question the performance of the bond portion in the current rising interest rate environment. It makes up 42% of the fund's portfolio, and of that 67% consists of short term US Treasuries and AAA bonds. It's the only balanced fund I have come across where the SEC dividend yield is negative, according to M*.
    The majority of the fund's bonds may actually be a detractor from its future performance, unless management makes a change. Holding cash instead may actually be a better choice in the current environment.
    My other question is why a "solid" fund like WBALX has accumulated only $223 million in assets over the past 18 years? What am I missing?
    Fred
    While a negative yield is less than ideal, their short-term bond holdings have probably held up better than many other bond sleeves in recent quarters. That type of allocation is probably why this fund has less volatility. Works for some, not for others.