Welcome to the Club, JR, A New I-Bond Buyer M* JR compares I-Bonds and 5-Yr TIPS with T-Bills/Notes and reaches favorable conclusions under title,
I-Bonds Forever? (Well, no, but still good).
He used 2 long-term scenarios:
1st, since 09/
1998 (I-Bond inception) and 2nd, since 0
1/
1995 (when 5-yr TIPS issuance resumed).
For I-Bonds, he used 2 assumptions - the initial 3.4% fixed/base rate and 0% fixed/base rate (to entirely remove that effect). So, this 2nd scenario only captured the CPI effect and actual I-Bond buyers did better than that bottom line.
Unsurprisingly, his conclusions were that that the initial fixed/base rate was a give-away for then (
1998) new I-Bonds and those did the best. But 0% I-Bonds also kept up with alternatives. He cautions about their limitations (annual limit, non-tradability) and to keep future expectations reasonable. But not to pass up a good deal, he has just now bought I-Bonds for both his wife and him. Welcome to the club JR!
As has been noted here, these conclusions are not surprising because I-Bonds, and 5-yr TIPS held to maturity, have kept up with $$CPI.
www.morningstar.com/articles/
1108848/i-bonds-forever
LINK
PSTL. Postal Realty Trust +1.
PSTL. Postal Realty Trust +1 hank Just like the seniors who don't want to pay property tax in their exclusive neighborhood because they don't have any children in public school !
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22 Really appreciate your opinion. Market rallied recently from softer July CPI number, 8.5% versus June’s 9.1%. Small additions, but nothing radical.
PSTL. Postal Realty Trust @LewisBraham - Agree with your above synopsis. I occasionally stay a few days at a resort in Hilton Head. It is inside a very large gated community along the coast with many private residences as well. A unique experience for me. I am struck by the difference in life styles
inside and
outside the gates. Inside are private lakes, golf courses, hiking trails, bike paths, roads etc. - all in immaculate condition. It appears they have their own well financed fire, police & public safety departments. There are so many BMWs parked inside you’d think it was a BMW auto dealers’ convention … And, Oh. I almost forgot the tennis courts, swimming pools and easy access to the coastline.
So where I’m going with this … Is the ability of the very rich to afford their own private enclaves one reason many care not to support public roads, parks, schools and safety? I’ll take it a step further and say many of these “upper crust” individuals can afford to buy a new BMW every year or two if the terrible public roads damage the old one. And, for any trip over
100 miles they’re much more likely to travel by private plane or chopper.
Just asking. It’s a suspicion I’ve long held. Back to your summation, there are many beautiful governmental / educational structures from the public works programs of the
1930s / 40s standing in our area. Absolutely magnificent.
2022 YTD Damage "Speedometer." Ya... Early in the year, the talking heads advised against bonds. I took from bonds to add to stocks at the highs for the year in TRAMX and PRNEX and PRISX. I'm still underwater, though TRAMX is nearly back to the zero-line by now.
My sole bond fund is TRP Junk: TUHYX. Still down YTD by -10+%. I've added a bit to my TUHYX pile, buying de-valued, unloved shares. (Cost basis!)
I'm in retirement, but can afford to invest for the heirs, so the move to overweight stocks doesn't make me itch so very much. Method? Steer clear of bonds, as instructed. But I did not go to ZERO in bonds. Don't put all your eggs in one basket, eh? I'm at 21% in bonds today. Another ingredient in my "method" is to stay overweight in PRWCX. It was down by -12%, now down by -5%. I added to it a couple of times in the past few months. If I'm fortunate, it might turn positive by year's end. We'll see. The expected Recession is technically here, after 2 Quarters of negative growth. But in practical terms, this does not feel like a Recession, yet. I still think things will get worse before we climb out of the present circumstances. Method? Cut losses before they get to be utterly unpalatable, re: my single stock positions. I can't make the Market love the stuff I own. I can sell, and then re-deploy. ...And all of this does not violate my sense of risk-tolerance.
Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22 Sentiment indicators are contrarian.
AAII Sentiment has been negative most of Q1 and Q2, more so in Q2 and was the worst around mid-June. For its believers, these were the times to buy/add, or at least hold (not sell), as difficult as it may have been at the time. It is now at neutral - sort of non-signal.
If the market bottom in mid-June holds up, then AAII Sentiment was sending appropriate signals.
But I just post the data and leave what to do to the readers.
2022 YTD Damage
Marks suggests investors center on a
neutral risk setting (think of a speedometer) suitable for their age, goals, tolerance, etc. He also recommends varying that a bit with one’s assessment of market valuation / dynamics. Therein lies the difficulty.
Since around the first of the year I’ve tried using a “sliding scale” of sorts - but only with about half the portfolio. The other 50-55% is quite static. Essentially, I try to raise or lower the allocation to fixed income. Raising the fixed component reduces the equity component. Been trimming risk lately. “Neutral” for fixed income is
25%. Was down to only
17-18% a month ago. Has since risen to 2
1% - less aggressive than earlier, but still substantially overweighted towards risk. Keep in mind that there is also a 50+% (moderate) allocation which remains static other than minor rebalancing.
There are many ways to skin a cat. If others have some sort of “speedometer” (Marks’ term) I’d enjoy hearing how they implement it. From some of the posts a month or two back some here were ramping up their cash and conservative investments based on “Fed-Speak” and their own macro assessment. In hindsight, that might have had them leaning the wrong way. Points to the difficulty of putting Marks into practice, Lately, mining and some natural resources (not oil) have recovered from earlier year losses. (And the dollar has begun to weaken). Yesterday I trimmed a bit off real assets and bumped up cash.
Amazingly - PRSIX, a 40/60 fund I watch closely, remains deep underwater at near a double-digit loss YTD despite the market rebound. Individual investors have a nimbleness and ability to react to changing conditions that a large fund does not possess. Than again, TRP never ceases to amaze.
AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22 For the week ending on 8/
10/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (3
1.2%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.2%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.5% (low). With all Sentiments still in 30s, future flip-flops in ordering are expected. The strong rally from mid-June lows is at an important juncture. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (24+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down/flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=740
Morningstar Devolution +1. :)
Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD Just to update my earlier numbers. TROW fell back a bit from earlier in the day before the close. Closed at $129.87, a gain of 4.17% for the day.
When I initially posted this thread 7/10 it was $113.68. Buying at that price would have resulted in a total gain thru today of 14.24%.
The following day, 7/11, I noted it had fallen to $113.10. Buying than would have produced a total gain of 14.83% thru today.
On 7/13 I noted it had fallen to $110.77 / Buying at that price would have resulted in a 17.24%. gain thru today.
Of course I did not recommend buying back than. Nor did I buy. There wasn’t really room in my allocation model to hold it in any significant quantity without dumping another holding. (And I like what I already own.)
Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise With respect to sweet corn, the prices are indeed much higher than in previous years. The market we use for meat and a few other products is noted for good quality but very high prices: sweet corn the other day was $1.29 PER EAR!!!
For contrast, the sweet corn from the Safeway chain is locally grown, consistently excellent quality, and typically 50¢ per ear, with frequent sales of 3/$1.00. Over the July 4th weekend they really had a special: 10¢ per ear- limit of 6 ears.
It pays to shop around, which is very easy using InstaCart. Yes, InstaCart's prices are a little high, but since we're both over 80, avoiding Covid and not carrying heavy grocery bags it's worth it. We typically source groceries from 3 or 4 different stores, including Costco.
Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD +1 crash and hank Marketbeat reported that Director Patrick Donahoe bought 3055 shares recently so maybe he knows something?! Once I found out TROW had a 4% dividend, I couldn't resist it, so thanks for the info hank !
Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD @HankGood call sir
Hood plummet from 60s to 5 then rebound little to
10.5 today
I DID similar things and always kicked myself before or after since did not buy or sell too early
Many small caps stocks -70% (even 80s 90s% like IONQ) since the carnage started after new-year/Ukraine invasion
Add lots small caps past few wks
TNA
NVTA
VRM
Balu
Qubt
Bbby
Also small dca into cryptos recently
BTC
ETH
Xlmusd
Sold out NVTA after closures massive gained today but very small portions 300 shares...bought at 2.5 bucks
Pump dumped AMTD HKD last few wk 7%
10% gained here there but very little bought
2022 YTD Damage
I much prefer Marty Zweig’s double 9 to 1 up volume indicator within three months albeit a bit similar to Deemer’s and Lowry Research. Zweig divides up volume by down volume. Today was an impressive and rare 12 to 1. But his indicator already went on a buy on July 19 signaling the end of the bear. His indicator has kicked in at every bear market bottom with the only failure I believe in 2008. I have talked about this ad nauseam but no one ever listens. At bear market bottoms there are always 1001 reasons not to be bullish. Usually his indicator kicks in much closer to the actual bottom than this time around.
Of course Zweig was also known as much as anyone about how not to fight the Fed as well as follow the trend, This is one of the rare times I can recall his two mantras are in direct conflict with his double 9 to 1 indicator kicking in amid an ever tightening Fed. Then again, it kicked in late 2018/early2019 amid a Fed that had been tightening and that signal was spot on.
Edit: We had an 8.5 to one up day on July 1 and that was close enough to a 9 to 1 to convince many of those who religiously follow Zweig’s indicator,
Your summarization and conclusions are encouraging. Those technical signals are, frankly, beyond me..... Even so, I certainly do pay attention to Zweig! And what YOU have shared is not just chopped liver, either. Thank you!
2022 YTD Damage
I much prefer Marty Zweig’s double 9 to
1 up volume indicator within three months albeit a bit similar to Deemer’s and Lowry Research. Zweig divides up volume by down volume. Today was an impressive and rare
12 to
1. But his indicator already went on a buy on July
19 signaling the end of the bear. His indicator has kicked in at every bear market bottom with the only failure I believe in 2008. I have talked about this ad nauseam but no one ever listens. At bear market bottoms there are always
100
1 reasons not to be bullish. Usually his indicator kicks in much closer to the actual bottom than this time around.
Of course Zweig was also known as much as anyone about how not to fight the Fed as well as follow the trend, This is one of the rare times I can recall his two mantras are in direct conflict with his double 9 to
1 indicator kicking in amid an ever tightening Fed. Then again, it kicked in late 20
18/early20
19 amid a Fed that had been tightening and that signal was spot on.
Edit: We had an 8.5 to one up day on July
1 and that was close enough to a 9 to
1 to convince many of those who religiously follow Zweig’s indicator,
2022 YTD Damage Yes, from a low point at -18%. our stuff is now down by -10%. That's -10% down from an ALL-TIME HIGH at the start of the year. And there have been changes in the portfolio. In one case, I dumped what had become a very big pile of smelly doggy poopies: ENIC. It was difficult to swallow THAT loss. But I learned a lesson, and so I did not wait so long to dump RGR after the Earnings miss just recently reported. After the numbers were published, the stock has been taking a beating. And the political climate makes RGR a member of the un-loved.
PSTL is my new holding, bought with proceeds from the RGR sale. It was down today, but finished up from the price where I bought it. Nice. I plan on holding it for the dividends. The Post Office pays its bills.
WHERE TO, FROM HERE? Maybe Tech will shine again, after the new legislation? With Fall and Winter coming, I do hope my midstream stock, ET, will do well. (Remember the war?) The economy is based upon Consumerism. That's not a good thing, ethically and morally. But the economy has no conscience, nor do the markets. I believe the Consumer will continue to over-spend and live day by day with credit card debt, just getting by. Wages are higher = more money will get spent. That's 66-70% of the Economy, right there.
