The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022 Howdy folks,
It's going on as we watch. How can we play it?
All around us, not only in the US, but overseas as well, we're witnessing (and participating in) a General Strike by workers everywhere. 'Take this job and shove it. I ain't working here no more'.
Workers have more power than they've had in decades and they're using it. Deere and Kellogg are out and on the west coast, the TV and Movie peeps narrowly avoided a strike because management caved in on every issue. At Deere, they were offered 5-6% and the workers are saying, Stuff It. I seriously believe the west coast hospital workers will walk and think of their leverage. And folks, this is only the beginning. Pilots can't strike, but they sure can get sick. Oh, and think how easy it is right now to supplement your strike pay. McDonald's is hiring at $21 per hour. This seems to me that the workers are going to win. Tough to bet against them.
The pandemic has created a perfect storm for workers and employment in general.
1. Not safe to go to work because of the virus.
2. Kids at home.
3. Tired of receiving shit wages for shit work.
4. Additional unemployment benefits [although the bs the republicans spread about exacerbating the problem has proven to be just that - BS. Indeed, the states that cut benefits early not only didn't see any reduction in help wanted signs, but it actually hurt their overall economies more than the states that maintained them due to a reduced aggregate demand.]
5. Lack of some spending - travel, dining out, concerts, movies, etc. - has allowed many households to become cash flush.
6. Perfect opportunity to change careers.
7. Virtual options for financial gain - Ebay, Market Place, OnlyFans, etc. My barber has a friend, who is buying Amazon 2nds for peanuts and reselling them.
Sokay, how to play?
Watch for the companies that figure it out and take the 'high road' vs. the ones that don't. A very easy tell, is whether there are Help Wanted signs or not. The businesses with pervasive help wanted signs are having a very tough time even staying open. How many restaurants do you know with reduced hours and menus? Which are simply raising wages and benefits and not bitching.
New industries that get it (e.g. pot. I was talking with a budista and he said, they were receiving great pay and benefits and it was the best job he'd had in years).
Short? Anyone that relies on truck drivers. Again, POT. To drive a semi, you have to have a CDL. With a CDL, you are subject to random drug testing and pot has a half life of 30 days. Hell, they're pushing to allow teenagers to drive. Feh, in my state, you've got to be 21 to buy pot.
Just a start of a discussion.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono
Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin It was a nice clean calculation (+
1).
One needs to read the source cited for the estimated 2022 premium to discover the ultimate source. That's the 202
1 annual report of the Medicare trustees.
https://www.cms.gov/files/document/2021-medicare-trustees-report.pdfA few items in that report worth mentioning:
1. The premium is computed based on expected 2022 costs for Medicare (pdf p.26, second paragraph). That's no different from what virtually every other insurer does when setting premiums. This calculation is de novo; it does not look at what the premium was last year.
2. The $
158.50 estimate does not (yet?) include the
impact of covering Aduhelm (pdf p94, bottom paragraph). So that might affect the final numbers.
3. There's a $3 claw back for some premium reductions (
hold harmless reductions and the
2021 cap on the premium increase). Pdf p. 89. This is projected to be added onto premiums through 2025 (pdf. p 90, 2nd full paragraph).
In a desperate attempt to relate this to mutual funds, I'll point out that this claw back is very similar to the claw back that mutual funds employ with temporary fee waivers. See, e.g. TRBUX (gross ER 0.29%, but net ER of 0.3
1% including a 0.02% claw back).
Sports betting Hi
@Derf -
Michigan legalized online gaming early in 202
1. I’ve mixed feelings. The thought of some father squandering away the rent money spinning a roulette wheel or playing black-jack online is not a little troubling.. This (legalization) is part of a trend nationwide aimed at increasing state revenues. My “interest” has been limited to small wagers on NCAA basketball games being watched evenings during our darkest winter months. Looked at 2 or 3 betting sites and thought for what I wanted DKNG was tops. It’s a smooth operation. What’s appealing is the ability to buy and sell positions while the game is in progress. ISTM That to large extent you’re basically wagering against the “crowd” following along at the same time. I ended the season with a profit of $8.00 (yes - eight dollars). Have done somewhat better with the stock. :)
After moving to Fido it became possible to acquire individual stocks. So I plunked a very small amount down on DKNG - which I still own. One allure of having some individual stocks is they often move opposite the major indexes, actually serving to mitigate
daily volatility inside a predominately fund centric portfolio. The biggest drawback is their wild fluctuations over time. (See
@Crash’s recent post). Charts showed DKNG had topped $70 earlier in the year. It had fallen to the mid $40s when I picked a bit up. So it’s ranged from over $70 to below $40 this year. It’s probably the smallest investment (amount) of anything I own.
Since announcing an attempt to acquire a large European gaming company a month or more ago, DKNG has been in a downward slide - mid $40 range at present. Here’s a
FT LINK to that takeover story - not yet completed. Here’s an alternative
STORY if unable to link the FT article. (It’s normal for acquiring companies’ stock prices to fall initially.) A short seller with a good track record (for integrity) broadsided DKNG in June with a report one of their recent acquisitions had ties to organized crime in Europe. That’s the main reason the stock fell back than.
I wasn’t aware of the SPAC deal you referenced. However, it’s likely part of a a “dog-eat-dog” battle going on among the top betting sites in the U.S. There are more than a half dozen players, with DraftKings and Fan Duel neck & neck. MGM in pursuit. It’s thought the market will only support about 3. So the fight is over market dominance before it’s too late. That may shed light on your story. There is an investigation into the charges against DKNG by the U.S. government - not sure which agency. And a big unknown is NY state. Apparently they will allow only some players to operate there when online gaming starts. The big fear is that taxes on their profits will be so high the companies won’t be able to operate profitably.
Not sure if these companies qualify as “
meme“ types - but people should be aware they are wildly popular among small retail investors and, hence, possibly overvalued. Cathie Wood picked up a slug of DKNG about the time I acquired my holding.
Long term owner of MWTRX I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!
If your heart is set on Pimco Income, you may be able to buy the somewhat more expensive institutional I-3 share class PIPNX in
your Fidelity 401K. It's a solid long term holding, though it has at best been mediocre in the past three years relative to its peers (46th percentile). You can see that in
this M* chart, which compares it to the average multisector bond fund (which it tracks very closely) and to the average high yield bond fund (which has greater volatility but otherwise follows a similar path).
Selling or buying the dip ?! - “Assuming your question is in good faith and not a rabbit hole invitation...”
- “Other posters have presented studies to show it does NOT work. I've argued that such studies produce statistics that support the Three Kinds of Lies.”
Arguments others may have made to the contrary need not be characterized as lies. It is possible for good and rational people to view the same evidence and arrive at different conclusions.
Yeah, you kind of short-handed what I've posted here. I did NOT state any specific poster lied.
Here ya go (again)...
Studies produce statistics. A very old saying about statistics (maybe only amongst people who professionally crunched data for a living for three+ decades?) goes like this....
There are three kinds of lies.
1. Lies
2. Damned lies.
3. Statistics.
Meaning, in this specific discussion...
Any study that produced/produces a statistic to show that BTD does NOT work is effectively a lie in relation to the ACTUAL results of of my BTD trades since March 2020.
And there are/will be thousands of other examples of BTD success stories and IMO they can't simply be dismissed/treated as outliers.
Adios on this thread.
Long term owner of MWTRX I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!
Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin $1,213.00 will be the GROSS in 2022, prior to Medicare taking its cut. Yes, I'm not taxed on SS. But the monthly Medicare premium will take me down to what figure, I'm wondering?
Hmmm...
Did you not see my prior post on this thread that shows your ESTIMATED calc?
Or maybe you did and either don't think it's correct/want a 2nd opinion?
No way.... ENIC Part of investing. Individual stocks can really get knocked around.

“Dividend Unicorns” “Basically, investors are on the hunt for a dividend unicorn: companies that offer higher-than-average yields for their sector and that have a history of increasing that payout.” (Not sure if this term has made it to
Investopedia yet.)
Author Carleton English, writing in this week’s
Barron’s suggests 3 stocks that meet the “dividend unicorn” criteria: Chevron (CVX), Citigroup (C) and Newmont (NEM).
Article Title:
Here Are 3 Stocks to Beat Inflation: Source:
Barron’s - October 18, 2021 LINK
A Flexible Fund Adept at Finding Income - FMSDX / by Lewis Braham in Barron’s “Adam Kramer is used to finding value in unusual places. He grew up in Montreal with two favorite activities as a child—collecting hockey cards and reading Barron’s every week …
“His sharp eye for investing opportunities is especially critical now, when the landscape for fixed-income investing feels a bit like a minefield. Interest rates are almost zero. Some investors worry that recent economic-stimulus packages could spark a bond rout if higher inflation follows. (Interest rates rise with inflation, and bond prices move inversely to rates.) But a resurgence of Covid-19 cases could cause the opposite effect—another economic downturn, which would likely drive some lower credit-quality bond issuers into bankruptcy.
“In this environment, income-hungry investors need flexibility, and a willingness to go beyond bond-only investments. Fidelity Multi-Asset Income offers that. The $1.4 billion fund can invest anywhere for income—dividend-paying stocks, high- or low-quality corporate bonds, U.S. or foreign government bonds, preferred stocks, convertible bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and master limited partnerships (MLPs). Such flexibility has produced strong results. The fund’s 16.7% three-year annualized return beats 99% of its peers in Morningstar’s Allocation—30% to 50% Equity fund category.”-
Nice article. I note the fund appears to have 58% invested in equities - certainly not your typical “income” fund. And, its largest holding, WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) just happens to be a stock I picked up a couple weeks back when it was mired in the weeds. I plan to hold it forever. I think that’s why
Barron’s editors included the photo of Mr. Kramer in the weeds (searching for another bargain).

Excerpt from Barron’s, October
18, 202
1 LINK
Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin $1,213.00 will be the GROSS in 2022, prior to Medicare taking its cut. Yes, I'm not taxed on SS. But the monthly Medicare premium will take me down to what figure, I'm wondering?