Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Green investments
    Yes, that's it. Fidelity's EV and Future Transportation ETF. You can find the its daily holdings here (click on the Daily Holdings Report tab).
    Though we don't quite know what's in the index it tracks, since the index is proprietary and the fund "Normally invest[s] at least 80% of assets in securities included in the Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation Index℠ and in depositary receipts representing securities included in the index."
  • Market valuations
    "Risk / reward seems out-of-whack. " +1
  • Selling or buying the dip ?!
    I read on one of the treads that those that started buying dips at the market top in 1929 did not see the bottom until 1932 and that the 1929 top was not seen again until 1952/3. Why compare the current equity market to the 1920s market? What are the similarities?
  • Market valuations
    “What if the discount rate is higher or we lower the assumed yield to reflect the uncertainty surrounding buybacks? Today’s market would appear overvalued. On the other hand, perhaps the pandemic has temporarily depressed dividends and buybacks—and the buyback yield will jump sharply in the year ahead, making stocks seem relatively cheap.”
    Reminds one of the line about “a one-handed economist.”
    That’s a very thoughtful piece overall. And Yikes - Mentions that the S&P fell 34% in early 2020. I’d sure like another crack at those prices.
    @Old_Joe - What you say is true. But inflation’s probably averaged 5-7% annually in recent years. Equity prices seem way out ahead of that (by S&P and other averages). If inflation were to catch up to the market gains of recent years we’d be looking at much worse than present level.
    -
    One thought …
    I’ve been taught that in investing there exists a rough correlation between risk and reward. So how does one reconcile 1-2% returns on “safe” bonds now for several years along with double-digit gains in equities over many of those same years? Do today’s investors in the S&P index (or similar fund) really feel like they’re taking 5 or 10 times the amount of risk that’s inherent in an AAA rated corporate or government bond? That’s where I’m having some trouble reconciling all this. Risk / reward seems out-of-whack.
  • With housing factored in, inflation’s running at 10% - Randall Forsyth in Barron's
    In the same issue: "These Pros Aren’t Worried About Inflation and Stagflation. Where to Invest Next." https://barrons.com/articles/these-pros-arent-worried-about-inflation-and-stagflation-where-to-invest-next-51634953101?mod=read_next
    But Milken is an investor conference, and the current economic environment was still top of mind. Inflation concerns were discussed, if only to be dismissed. People are feeling the sting in their wallets now, but many of the recent price surges are in goods and services that were crushed at the onset of the pandemic, such as air travel and hospitality. Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, and David Hunt, CEO of PGIM, agreed that there are more deflationary forces at work, thanks in part to the rise of technology.
    Stagflation—the mix of inflation and slow economic growth—was even less of a concern to panelists. Hunt called it a “bogeyman.” What worries him more is that nearly two decades of accommodative monetary policies mean there’s a generation of investors that doesn’t understand credit risk.
    Admittedly, housing could be in a bubble now. Different strokes.
  • With housing factored in, inflation’s running at 10% - Randall Forsyth in Barron's
    I lately moved about 11 miles. Housing cost for me is up 100%. Granted, it is Oahu, and the new place is a step up. And this city is allegedly one of the safest in the USA. Gas is $4.24. My wife uses the car. This is no typo: the annual cost of an unlimited senior bus pass here is just $35.00. THAT'S what I do, to get around. Beautiful views here, but we are just up from street-level. The noise is nuts. I got drafted by a hookah-smoking caterpillar for this stint. He had given me the call. It's true. Go ask Alice. When she's 10 feet tall. ...
    https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=5aeWicwy7fA&list=RDAMVM5aeWicwy7fA
  • Green investments

    Um, yeah, and I'm kinda thinking EVs and Future Transportation are a wee bit more than just the next "hot" investment idea. I'm kinda thinkin' EV's (and whatever else comes next/with them) are gonna be a HUGE part of the LT future of transportation. To wit, CA and 2035 legislation.
    I don't doubt that. What I question is how green it is (which is the topic of this thread). Adding lots of cars, regardless of their source of power, is an inefficient way to transport people. The second largest equity holding (4.88%) is Uber. Lyft is not far behind at 2.59%.
    According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, ride-hailing trips today result in an estimated 69 percent more climate pollution on average than the trips they displace. In cities, ride-hailing trips typically displace low-carbon trips, such as public transportation, biking, or walking. Uber and Lyft could reduce these emissions with a more concerted effort to electrify its fleet of vehicles or by incentivizing customers to take pooled rides, the group recommends.
    “However, those strategies alone will address neither the increases in vehicle miles traveled nor rising congestion concerns,” the report says. “For ride-hailing to contribute to better climate and congestion outcomes, trips must be pooled and electric, displace single-occupancy car trips more often, and encourage low-emissions modes such as mass transit, biking, and walking.”
    ...
    A more systemic effort to address climate pollution has yet to emerge from either Uber or Lyft. And the solutions they’ve proposed so far are unlikely to address the core problem with ride-hailing: it is often more convenient and less expensive than other, less-polluting transportation options.
    https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/25/21152512/uber-lyft-climate-change-emissions-pollution-ucs-study
    Here's an October 2021 op-ed piece going though the myriad of broken green "pledges" by Uber and Lyft: NYTimes original (with embedded links), SF Examiner reprint (free w/o links)
    Aside from their green failures, the piece also notes:
    Lyft’s president, John Zimmer, once claimed the majority of rides would be in autonomous vehicles by 2021, but the company has largely backed away from its self-driving efforts, including selling its developmental unit to a Toyota subsidiary this year. Uber, which once characterized robot cars as “existential” to its future, sold off its autonomous vehicle division last year after mounting safety and cost concerns.
    (Not relevant to the question of green investing, but it is relevant to the ETF's stated strategy of investing in companies "engaged in the production of electric and/or autonomous vehicles".)
    Since others here have mentioned ESG, and you suggested looking at California statutes, one can hardly mention Uber and Lyft without also mentioning Prop 22. IMHO fortunately the courts just overturned it (thus moving closer to restoring employee rights and protections to Uber and Lyft drivers).
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/10/can-anyone-stop-the-uberization-of-the-economy.html
  • Green investments
    “a discussion of FDRV on the Fido board … It's invitation only”
    image
  • Green investments
    PAWZ lost less than SPY XLP and XLU in 1Q 2020-so could it be classified as a consumer staples etf ?
  • With housing factored in, inflation’s running at 10% - Randall Forsyth in Barron's
    “Home prices are up a record 19.5% in the past year, according to Case-Shiller data, writes Joseph Carson, former chief economist at AllianceBernstein, in his blog. However, they were removed from the official price indexes owing to political and statistical issues. If they were still included, inflation would be running at a 10% clip, rivaling the 1980s, he adds.”
    Barron’s, October 25, 2021
    Hmm … I thought my money wasn’t going as far this year … Did an awful lot of renovation and maintenance work on the house. Likely the high costs were related to overall housing inflation.
    Teaser - Another provocative sounding article in this week’s issue (which I haven’t yet read): “Parallels Between Now and the Roaring ‘20s”
  • Green investments
    That said, fund sponsors also tend to focus on what's currently hot. Like electric, self-driving cars, "FDV ... Fidelity Electric Vehicles & Future Transportation ETF, one of four new ETFs launched in October 2021."
    Um, yeah, and I'm kinda thinking EVs and Future Transportation are a wee bit more than just the next "hot" investment idea. I'm kinda thinkin' EV's (and whatever else comes next/with them) are gonna be a HUGE part of the LT future of transportation. To wit, CA and 2035 legislation.
    Regardless, it's the play we've made and a green idea for others to consider. Take it or leave it.
  • Green investments
    And you certainly do not want to mis this article:
    The ESG Movement: The 'Goodness' Gravy Train Rolls On
    I agree with the given caveat, not only in this context but generally, "For any variable, no matter how intuitive and obvious its connection to value might be, to generate 'excess' returns, you have to consider whether it has been priced in already."
    I strongly disagree with the statement that "Milton Friedman, the bête noire of ESG advocates, would stand vindicated, and companies would do good, because it made them more profitable and valuable." Friedman, like most economists, ignored behavioral economics and started with the assumption that actors are rational. If businesses acted rationally there would be no need for anti-discrimination laws.
    If businesses were focused on long term results and not quarterly profits, they would invest in producing less waste (saving material costs). They would plan better for having to pay for the pollution that they emitted in the past "for free".
    That said, fund sponsors also tend to focus on what's currently hot. Like electric, self-driving cars, "FDV ... Fidelity Electric Vehicles & Future Transportation ETF, one of four new ETFs launched in October 2021."
    Vehicles, Future Transportation - that's not just cars, though you wouldn't know it from this fund. Efficient transportation? That's mass transit.
    while EVs do decrease emissions compared with conventional vehicles, we should be comparing them to buses, trains and bikes. When we do, their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions disappears because of their life cycle emissions and the limited number of people they carry at one time.
    https://theconversation.com/the-myth-of-electric-cars-why-we-also-need-to-focus-on-buses-and-trains-147827
    Where are the investments in electric rail, in fully automated (GoA level 4) systems? For example,
    “[Siemens Mobility's] state of the art CBTC signaling at GoA 4 [for the Bangalore Metro] will allow trains to operate driverless, as they will be automatically controlled and supervised without any onboard intervention. This will deliver a truly modern system featuring superior availability, reliability and passenger experience.”
    https://railway-news.com/siemens-mobility-wins-bangalore-metro-contract/
    GoA 4 is also termed as an Unattended Train Operation (UTO) system. Therefore, the safe departure of the train from a station, including door closing, must be done automatically. The UTO system can detect and manage the hazardous conditions and emergency conditions by introducing guideway intrusion detection, platform, and onboard CCTV, etc. UTO is only possible for systems with GoA 4.
    Global Automatic Train Control (GoA 1, GoA 2, GoA 3, GoA 4) Market Forecast to 2023 - ResearchAndMarkets.com (2019)
    https://apnews.com/press-release/pr-businesswire/7dd0aca732d347389a6ab8d383ff18ff
    Here's the updated report:
    https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5300830/global-autonomous-trains-market-2020-2030-by
  • Green investments
    @stillers : Were you buying on the dip ? Also is this a long term hold ? Derf
    FDRV just incepted on 10/07/21 so our first BUYs of it were not driven by the recent Dip in the overall markets. This we saw as a separate opportunity.
    That said, coincidentally, its inception date was right around the time we were pulling UP from the recent overall market Dip. FDRV did NOT have the same overall market move during the first BUY period.
    I've noted on the Fido board that FDRV and PAWZ (which we've also just done the same thing with) are two ETFs that we believe will perform well going forward a LONG ways. We plan to make each ~2.5% of total port to collectively comprise ~5% of our total port in our "Explore" sleeve (which is about 10% of the total port).
    We had conversely been watching PAWZ for a while and it had Dipped recently. We decided to take the first plunge on it close to its Dip lows in early Oct when we BOT FDRV.
    So yes, we very much plan both of these as LT HOLDs. Being "Explore" sleeve holdings though, LT does not mean "until they plant us" (Thanks, Dick) like it does in our "Core."
  • Green investments
    Just completed BUYs on 1/2 of intended holding of FDRV, Fidelity Electric Vehicles & Future Transportation ETF, one of four new ETFs launched in October 2021.
    https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=FDRV&type=o-NavBar
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/fdrv
  • TSHIX
    For clarity: I mentioned the $5 automatic investment feature for transaction fee funds because some people are familiar with the tool in that context.
    When used to purchase Fidelity funds (which have no TF) it exempts the purchase from the round trip restriction. My understanding is that the sequence of trades you described would be counted as one round trip (manual buy on Feb 1, sale on Feb 15). The sale of shares purchased on Feb 4 would not count as part of a round trip because they were purchased "automatically".
    One round trip within a 90 day period is okay with Fidelity. Thus I believe you would not run afoul of Fidelity's excessive trading rules this way.
  • TSHIX
    @msf,
    "[Y]ou can use the same automatic investment mechanism that people use to buy TF funds for a $5 fee. If you use this to buy a Fidelity fund, then regardless of the amount, the transaction doesn't count as part of a round trip."
    Since Fidelity funds are NTF, does Fidelity charge the $5 fees to buy using the auto invest feature? I am assuming NO, but thought I should ask.
    "Orders placed via Fidelity Automatic Investments or Automatic Withdrawals features are exempt from roundtrip violations." - from Fidelity website.
    Does the following sell order result in a roundtrip violation?
    I buy $1,000 of FXAIX on Feb 1. On Feb 2, I place an auto invest request to buy on Feb 4 of $100K of FXAIX (assume quarterly auto invest). On Feb 15, I learn that a pandemic is imminent and I want to reduce my equity exposure and sell all the FXAIX shares bought on Feb 4.
    Thanks.