Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Coronavirus Is Likely to Become a Seasonal Infection Like the Flu, Top Chinese Scientists Warn
    Yep
    The only question is will we have robust testing and contact tracing up and running when it comes back.
    I strongly recommend Tomas Pueyo series for common sense and solid recommendations.
    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e
    Unfortunately no one in Washington is listening
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    @bee Sorry if I'm being dense. My wife has an HSA through her employer. I understand contributions are tax deferred and I also understand it converts to IRA after you retire, or if you lose your job. What I didn't know however is you can invest it right away. First, will find out if the HSA is even invested is some fund at her employer plan. Second, if possible to divert funds into external fund.
    However, most important question. Isn't investing it risky? I mean what if fund tanks right about the time you need to pay doctor and you run out of cash? For us, HSA just started last year and we used a bit of it of course already, so not much there at this time.
    We have had many thorough conversations here at MFO. Here's what I searched:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/search?Search=HSA
    Just a few points I have gathered about how an HSA works:
    HSA is triple tax advantage. Tax deductible when contributed (you have many contribution options...including mutual funds...Fidelity seems to be providing a great platform for HSA investment options).
    HSA's grow tax deferred. If used after 65 for non-medical withdrawals you will pay taxes in the year you make those withdrawals much like an deferred IRA. There is a 10% penalty for non-medical withdrawals prior to 65. There is no actual RMDs, but if you plan on reimbursing yourself later don't leave tax free withdrawals on the table forever...HSA withdrawal rules change for beneficiaries after you die.
    Medically qualified withdrawals are always tax free at anytime and withdrawals can be reimbursable at a later point in time (this could be many years later) if you pay out of pocket instead of your HSA. Keep track of medical qualified expenses for these reimbursements. Keep track of what you have already paid for and what you plan on being reimbursed for. Make a spreadsheet...save records.
    Inheritable HSA provisions are completely transferable to your spouse as a Spousal HSA. If your beneficiary is a spouse it continues to have tax-free withdrawal status. A non-spouse inherits an HSA much like an Inherited IRA (taxable)...Inherited HSA. If your beneficiaries are non- spouse(s) make sure you reimburse yourself before you pass. In this manner you have made a tax free withdrawal (your withdrawal is tax free while alive). Even if you don't need this withdrawal you can at least pass it tax free to beneficiaries.
  • Coronavirus Is Likely to Become a Seasonal Infection Like the Flu, Top Chinese Scientists Warn
    The staying power of Covid-19 will impact the investing landscape until a vaccine is widely available.
    Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.
    It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
    https://time.com/5828325/coronavirus-covid19-seasonal-asymptomatic-carriers/
  • U.S. Global Investors Fund's Holmes Macro Trends Fund changing name
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101507/000143510920000104/usgi_497e.htm
    497 1 usgi_497e.htm
    U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS FUNDS
    Holmes Macro Trends Fund (the “Fund”)
    Investor Class Shares
    Supplement dated April 28, 2020, to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, as supplemented
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING THE FUND’S NAME, INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND PRIMARY BENCHMARK INDEX
    At the March 27, 2020 meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of U.S. Global Investors Funds, the Board approved, at the recommendation of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., the investment adviser to the Fund (“Adviser”), changes to the Fund’s name, investment strategies, and primary benchmark index, in order to highlight a focus on luxury goods-related investments.
    These changes, which were summarized in a supplement to the Fund’s prospectus dated March 31, 2020, and which were expected to become effective on May 1, 2020, have been postponed pending the resolution of regulatory considerations, and will not be implemented until further notice is made to shareholders.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    1-800-873-8637.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Good morning. As I write, stocks are set to add to Monday's gains as the futures are up across the board both here in the States and abroad. As stocks have moved upward the VIX has been in decline and now resides in the low to mid 30's. In addition, Treasury yields now seem to be slowly rising. I'm thinking to support this upward move, in the stock market, earnings are going to have to be reflected in the $150 (or better) range for the S&P 500 Index to trade and hold the 3,000+ range mark. The Index has now regained more lost ground and it is well above of where I thought we would currently now be ... and ... on through most of the summer.
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    @kings53man, I have been retired for more than five years and I may use my HSA to cover medical, dental, eye, prescription meds and most recently over the counter meds not covered by my Medicare PPO.
  • Money market fund at Merrill Edge?
    If you've got $100K in cash, Merrill provides access to some institutional funds. Even these are pretty anemic, struggling to get up to 1/4%, unless you're willing to try one of the floating NAV money market funds created specifically for institutions. They'll get you all the way up to about 2/3%.
    If all you've got is $5,000 for a MMF, they'll sell you a fixed $1.00 NAV fund (BPTXX) paying a nice round number, zero exactly! And that's for a non-sweep fund.
    Here's the rate sheet: https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf
  • Options for Income and Taxes
    @rforno - Yeah. I can now proudly said it's called the Vertical Put Credit Spread. I feel so smart :-)
    Seriously though, after what happened to bond, bond-like, "income" funds in the last couple of months I would rather take my own risk with money I would normally not invest. If MM funds offered something in return I would never have tried this. Few months back you could have gotten 2%. Now you can get 1.5% going to zero at Marcus, for instance. At brokerages though MM funds are not FDIC insured and after looking at how much Schwab Money Market yielded in March, I've absolutely had it.
    The key is to stop being greedy and remind yourself you are not investing, and to simply take the money and run every chance you get. So far I've done well. Made another $400 odd since I started this thread. I just dunno if I can do it with larger amounts of cash and worried a bit if I mess up, so still researching a few things.
    Lastly, wanted to add Vanguard sucks at options trading. Will likely ditch it for cash and go to Schwab or Fido.
  • A Look At The Current State of the Economy ( & Markets) and Where They May Be Headed -- Heisenberg
    Looking at the charts.
    QQQ signaled a buy based on the MACD at the end of March. QQQ passed the 200 days MA in the second week of April, then passed the 50 days MA, then test the 50 days MA again and now is up and running with a clear buy.
    The SP500 is still struggling, The MACD signaled a buy at the end of March, the price passed the 50 days MA twice but still is not above the 200 days MA.
    It's not a secret that unemployment will hit at least 15-20% and the economy right now is in bad shape but the stock market is looking 6-12 months ahead. The assumption is that most states will open their businesses in the next 1-3 months and the economy will get better. It would still take 1-2 years to get to normal. The fiscal and monetary policies were a success so far. If the Coronavirus will come back it's going to be ugly.
    The SP500 and QQQ are capitalization-weighted indexes. This means that the biggest companies matter much more than the smaller ones. There are many companies in bad shape but several of the top ones are doing just fine and why the indexes are doing better. QQQ is mostly high tech where you see it even more.
    The healthcare(XLV) sector is doing great too and the (chart) looks better than QQQ or XLK.
    Is the above a guarantee? of course not. I'm skeptical like many of you but the charts are based on actual prices that traders were willing to pay.
  • Options for Income and Taxes

    I made $500 selling OTM puts in SPY last week in my fidelity account. SPY has 3 expiry dates every week. I just sold PUTs the day before each expiry. It was ridiculously easy.
    That's similar to what a trader (Darlene-someone, IIRC) years ago called a 'Chicken Bull Put' ... she sold put spreads that went out less than a week, if not day, before expiration. The long put protected the position from multi-sigma moves against it, which I thought is a good thing. Indeed, selling puts or covered calls can goose annual returns if done right over time ..... so good luck!
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Global stocks gain as investors look to lockdown easing.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/shares-gain-as-investors-look-to-lockdown-easing-idUSKCN22900Z?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
    U.S. stock index futures gained late Sunday, ahead of earnings reports this week from some of America's biggest companies.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-retreat-ahead-of-big-earnings-week-2020-04-26
    Looks like it's going to be a good stock day in the markets today as stock futures are up across the board both here and abroad. Let's also see if high yield bonds move upward with their stock cousins. I'm beleiving they will. This indeed could turn into a strong up day (and week) for some investors especially if the shorts start to cover. As I write the VIX is in the mid 30's. If today is a strong rally day for stocks I look for the VIX to continue its decline. On March 20th I recordered the VIX with a reading of 62 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2305. Friday, I recorded the VIX with a reading of 37 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2837. As the VIX moves lower stocks trend to move higher. Should we have a strong up week in the stock market (say a 5% gain) then this will put the S&P 500 Index just below the 3,000 mark at 2980 range. For this to happen earnings, for the S&P 500 Index, will need to get marked to the $150.00 range. And, this could indeed happen. As President Trump says ... "We'll see!"
    The Futures are linked below.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • What's UP in bondland??? , a follow-up
    ongoing: PTIAX YTD -2.05% My others are down by -6%. PRSNX RPSIX. I'm just not motivated to shop around.
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    SFAAX. I'm still not with any broker/dealers, so the 5.75% load is a non-starter. Thanks for the info, though, Old Skeet. Others might need it. Also, anything with the Wells name gets a score of zero from me. Screwing customers, opening false accounts... The very culture is toxic. The courts gave them a slap on the wrist "punishment." We bought bedroom furniture through a local store at the mall. Interest rate of zero for 5 years. Through whom? Wells. Shit! OK...
  • NYT on Bond Funds Crisis: Nothing to see here
    Thanks for all of the links above.
    In 2008, I was primarily in equity stocks. I just stopped looking at the market. And given some time, did fine. Stocks did what they were going to do.
    Fast forward to now, in February/early March, having 50% of my retirement portfolio allocated to bonds, I switched from what I thought were riskier bond positions (riskier being credit/liquidity-wise) to more core-like ETFs, but was quite surprised to see how even core bond ETFs ended up being so volatile. There is something different in reading about the risks in a prospectus vs experiencing them. Lesson hopefully learnt.
    The yahoo finance link on ETF bond pricing made clearer what I vaguely knew though was still disconcerting. But for a long term holder of these ETFs or mutual funds, does it actually matter? The interview with Matt Hougan, I thought suggested not, though he certainly seems to favor ETFs over mutual funds because of the price discounts when redemptions are involved.
    With said volatility, it will be interesting to look back & see actual investor returns vs fund performance for bond funds. I suspect it will be more stock-like going forward.
    How much does the ability to trade (individual investors &/or institutions ) bond ETFs throughout the day add to the volatility of pricing? Core mutual fund bond funds seemed to do better until the bailout occurred.
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    I own PRIDX. ... It fell hard with coronavirus. But it's coming back, down -13% now, ytd. Down to 3 stars, but still with a silver decoration. ... Top 15% among peers, ytd. Not a great showing compared to peers LAST year, but still very good indeed.
    For a few months, I've been promising myself to make a post on being careful about what numbers do and don't represent (i.e. look behind the numbers). Figures like ERs, duration, performance. One of these days.
    Meanwhile, to deconstruct these numbers and ratings a bit:
    PRIDX outperformed both its benchmark and its category 2019 Q4, 2020 Q1 and YTD, so while it fell hard with coronavirus, on a relative basis it performed admirably. It's the whole market that has come back (to some extent), and PRIDX has more or less just kept up its rate of outperformance.
    So why the 3 stars? M* continues to rate its risk as below average (as of March 31) for 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years. Also as of March 31, M* rates 3/5/10 year performance as average, above average, average.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PRIDX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Generally, above average return with below average risk gets a fund into, or close to a 4 star rating. Thus, as of March 31, PRIDX was rated 4 stars for the five year period (above average performance), but 3 stars for the three and ten year periods.
    The overall star rating is a weighted average: 3 years (20%), 5 years (30%), and 10 years (50%). So PRIDX gets 3 stars.
    https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/771945_Morningstar_Rating_for_Funds_Methodology.pdf
    Now take a look at the 3/5/10 performance figures. To be rated above average, a fund must be in the top 32.5% of its category (but not in the top 10%).
    PRIDX came close to above average performance, but didn't make it over 3 years (38th percentile) or 10 years (33rd percentile). Shift that 10 year performance a little and the 10 year star rating should move up to 4 stars, bringing the overall weighted average rating also up to four stars.
    It looks like this has happened. Take performance rankings through today (April 26). 10 year moves up to 27th percentile, 5 year drops slightly from 14th to 17th percentile, and 3 year moves up to 29th percentile. All above average performances.
    So one should expect the star rating to move back to 4 stars when it's recalculated unless the fund stumbles in the interim.
    All of this goes to show that even when looking at long term performance, what a fund has done lately can have a significant impact.
    The poor showing last year? Over the whole year it underperformed its category by 3.18% where the average gain was 27.78%. Not a great showing, but not as bad as its 71st percentile would superficially suggest. Also, it never had a really bad quarter; it just chugged along, trailing by as much as 1.18% in Q3 and as little as 0.25% in Q4. Not great, but fairly consistent and nothing obvious to get concerned about.
  • Updated Trinity Study for 2020 – More Withdrawal Rates!
    Thank you for the link. Have to read more.
    For example a portfolio of 100% PRWCX would have a "Safe Withdrawal Rate" of 10% and a "Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate" of 5.6%. The rule of thumb for a Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate is 4% according to the Trinity Study (linked below).
  • A Look At The Current State of the Economy ( & Markets) and Where They May Be Headed -- Heisenberg
    This article provides a useful look at the current situation and possible future trends. (Some may find it useful to glide around the more dystopian/dramatic references in the article.) Here are a few excerpts:
    The manufacturing sector hasn't completely rolled over yet, but the services sector simply ceased to exist starting late last month.....The message is clear: Main Street isn't just hurting, it is disappearing in a very literal sense. As Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic warned earlier this month, "May is going to loom large, in terms of the transition of concern from this being a liquidity issue… to this perhaps translating and transferring into a solvency issue, and whether companies can exist at all."
    image
    (...from Homebase, a scheduling and time tracking tool used by more than 100,000 local businesses covering 1 million hourly employees.)
    .
    .
    Deutsche Bank rolled up the fiscal and monetary support programs announced and implemented in the US and Europe into a single "bailout" figure. The sheer size of the COVID-19 response necessitated a log scale (on the left axis) in order to help "better identify the earlier bailouts and get a rough feel visually for the numbers," as the bank put it. ....."Obviously we won’t know how much will be used until much further down the road," the bank cautioned, in the course of presenting the numbers and accompanying visuals.
    image

    ....policymakers have been deliberately suppressing volatility, compressing risk premia, tamping down credit spreads and keeping the market wide-open for borrowers for the better part of a decade....
    Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos.....At the extreme, central banks could become permanent command economy agents administering equity and credit prices, aggressively subduing financial shocks. With unlimited capacity to print money, central banks have unlimited capacity to intervene in asset markets too. Put simply, a central bank that pegs bond, credit and equity markets is highly likely to stabilize portfolio flows as well.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340027-dystopia-now
  • FGDFX - Fidelity Disruptor Fund
    I believe that, unlike many cash back cards, Fido credit card now sends the tax form for these 2%, so it is not 2% cash back (no taxes, just cash return), but 2% minus taxes.
    This has been settled law for decades now. Here's a CNBC page discussing whether rewards are taxable.
    https://www.cnbc.com/select/are-credit-card-rewards-taxable/
    As it states, rewards (whether points, cash, or miles) are not taxable so long as you had to spend something to receive them. So a signing bonus that did not require a min spend would be taxable, but that's about the only exception. (Here's Fidelity's $100 sign up bonus promotion that requires spending $1,000 in the first 90 days.)
    Fidelity does have an option to contribute the rewards to an IRA account. In that case, the reward is considered a contribution. That both reduces the amount of additional money you can contribute to the IRA and permits you to take a deduction for the contribution. Of course, as Fidelity points out, if you are not eligible to make that contribution, then the amount is subject to an excise tax.
    For completeness, I just checked the 2019 Fidelity Combined 1099 for someone I'm helping with taxes. There is no amount entered for cash back from the card. The only entries in these 1099s are for divs received from funds.
    The rules about combining credit card rebates with IRAs could lead one to think that the rewards were taxable. Perhaps this is what you were thinking of, or was there something else?
  • Updated Trinity Study for 2020 – More Withdrawal Rates!
    Using tools like Portfolio Visualizer (click on
    metrics tab) an investor can review historical data on the safe withdrawal rate of their portfolio. For example a portfolio of 100% PRWCX would have a "Safe Withdrawal Rate" of 10% and a "Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate" of 5.6%. The rule of thumb for a Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate is 4% according to the Trinity Study (linked below).
    Understanding these concepts is an important element of "safely" deriving a portion of one's income in retirement over a time frame of 30 - 50 years.
    From the Article:
    First, I wanted to see how this was working with recent stock market returns. The original study was only covering years up to 1995. I wanted to have more recent data. I wanted to make sure that the results were holding with more recent stock market behavior. So this simulation will cover returns until the end of 2019!
    Secondly, the original study was only covering up to thirty years of retirement. I wanted to be sure that the portfolio can sustain withdrawals for much more extended periods. For people retiring early, I think that 50 years is not unreasonable.
    The Trinity Study:
    https://thepoorswiss.com/trinity-study/
    The Update to the Trinity Study for 2020:
    https://thepoorswiss.com/updated-trinity-study/
    Here's a 4 Part Series on the Topic.
    Part 1:
    safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-1-background.html
    Part 2:
    https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/14/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-2-enough-data.html
    Part 3:
    https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/21/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-3-more-bootstrapping.html
    Part 4:
    https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/27/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-4-perpetual-rates.html