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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • HSGFX now negative for the year
    His allocation fund HSAFX isn't all that great, but at least it's up 7% ytd and was up 11% in 2020 (M* figures).
  • theoretical no-growth math question
    for this labor you get the prize, which is 1M grains of good basmati
    Yes. I agree. It’s a provocatively useful question. Causes you to think a lot about potential outcomes. Appreciate the work @dstone42 put in here.
  • HSGFX now negative for the year
    This 21 year old fund’s a former board favorite. John Hussman’s writings were often displayed and discussed. Real looser of a fund however. You’d have made less than a half-percent annually had you bought the fund when it opened 21 years ago.
    I owned the fund for a year or so and sold it probably 15 years ago. But can’t stop from tracking it and hoping this seemingly gifted financial analyst and writer could somehow turn his floundering fund around. HSGFX got off to a good start this year and everything looked promising. But the fund’s been in a nose-dive now for several weeks. Today’s negative 0.49% return puts the fund into negative territory YTD.
    I can sympathize with him if he thinks the markets are overvalued and has pulled back./ gotten defensive. I happen to agree with that prognosis. But, managing a fund like this is “big league” stuff. More is expected.
    HSGFX
    ER 1.23%
    Early Redemption Fee 1.50%
    Lipper Link
    Chart
    image
  • theoretical no-growth math question
    for this labor you get the prize, which is 1M grains of good basmati
  • theoretical no-growth math question
    davidr,
    My interpretation of Joe's question: the 1 Million doesn't grow with inflation, but the annual spends increase each year.
    An example. For convenience, say the annual inflation rate is 2%
    So in Year 1, Joe's spending is 40,000;
    in Year 2, Joe's spending is (1.02)*40,000 = 40,800;
    in Year 3, Joe's spending is (1.02)*40,800 = (1.02^2)*40,000 =41,616;
    in Year 4, Joe's spending is (1.02)*41,616 = (1.02^3)*40,000 =42,448.32;
    etc, etc
    in Year 25, Joe's spending is (1.02^24)*40,000 =64,337.49.
    (For those of you unfamiliar with the jargon,
    2*3 means 2 times 3, and
    2^3 means 2 raised to the 3rd power.)
    The question then becomes: what's the sum of all the annual spends?
    That is, 40,000 +(1.02)*40,000+(1.02^2)*40,000+
    (1.02^3)*40,000 + ...+(1.02^24)*40,000.
    If we factor out the 40,000, then this total spending is
    40,000 (1 +1.02+1.02^2+1.02^3+1.02^4+ ... + 1.02^24).
    You could get out a calculator to add the 25 terms in the parentheses, but ...
    wait for it
    wait for it
    there's a formula!
    1 +1.02+1.02^2+1.02^3+1.02^4+ ... + 1.02^24 =(1.02^25 -1)/.02
    A calculator can handle the 25th power term, to get
    (.64061)/.02 = 32.031,
    so the total amount Joe needs to live on for 25 years is
    40,000*32.031 = $1,281,212.
    So he needs to find 281,212 more dollars to stash away under his mattress.
    The final answers:
    for inflation rate 2%, the total initial amount needed is $1,281,212;
    for inflation rate 2.5%, the total initial amount needed is $1,366,311;
    for inflation rate 3%, the total initial amount needed is $1,458,371;
    for inflation rate 6%, the total initial amount needed is $2,194,581.
    David
  • Prez want's minimum 15% corporate tax. From latest message before heading out.
    If this takes effect, how will Mr. Market react ? Correction coming ? All up in the air at this time.
    Derf
  • T. Rowe Price to Buy Oak Hill for Up to $4.2 Billion
    “We have a vision to be the premier active investment manager in the world,” T. Rowe President Rob Sharps said in an interview. “Alternatives is an asset class that is growing rapidly” and there’s increasing interest in it from an array of investors, he said. Sharps will become chief executive officer on Jan. 1.
    T. Rowe Price to Buy Oak Hill
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    The separate currency is a point in favor of viewing Macau bonds as different from Chinese bonds. (Puerto Rico's bonds are a different story.) On the other hand, Macau's government seems substantially subservient to mainland China, raising doubts about true economic independence.
    Both HK and Macau would like to think they're not part of China.
    Life is rarely that simple.
    [Macau's] Special Administrative Region ... uses the same political model as Hong Kong - "one country, two systems". ... But this is where the similarity between Hong Kong and Macau ends.
    ...
    Hong Kong is now into its sixth month of protests [Dec 2019], but Macau has mainly remained silent.
    "This dissent does not exist in Macau," Jason Chao, an activist and former president of the New Macau Association, a pro-democracy party, tells the BBC.
    "A major difference between Hong Kong and Macau is a wish for autonomy. Hong Kong people need autonomy, freedom and rights and they are fighting for it. This does not apply to Macau. The majority of the population are pro-China."
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50832919
    Compare and contrast w/Taiwan:
    Macau said Wednesday it was closing its representative office in Taiwan, following neighbouring Hong Kong which made the same move last month in protest at Taipei's support for pro-democracy activists.
    ...
    Hong Kong and Macau abide by authoritarian China's view that democratic, self-ruled Taiwan is part of its territory and must be seized one day, by force if necessary.
    ...
    Beijing loathes [Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen] because she regards Taiwan as a de facto sovereign nation and not part of "one China".
    Agence France-Presse (AFP), June 16, 2021
    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210616-macau-follows-hong-kong-in-shuttering-taiwan-office
  • High Yield Funds
    I'm finding this fund name with the ticker LMZIX. (?) In the course of doing it, I went from Brandywine to Global to Franklin Templeton. ORK! @waxman123
  • High Yield Funds
    $1M threshold for entry.
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    Both HK and Macau would like to think they're not part of China. We visited a relative in Macau in late 2018. We were waiting at a bus stop, and he pointed and said: "See? Just across the water there. That's CHINA! My understanding is that Macau has its own currency, just as HK has the HK dollar. But nobody else wants to deal with that Macau currency. HK dollar is readily exchangeable.
  • TSHIX
    +1 hank Yes-sticking with the same funds makes it more difficult. I myself don't mind churning through funds to make a profit. For example, I've owned funds like FTANX FFANX FASMX and FSANX at different times in my Fido IRA account, harvested profits, minimized losses and moved on to the next fund, when necessary.
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    It's difficult to find US vs International % exposure on M*
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=HYSAX
    (substitute your favorite ticker for other funds)
    One does need to be careful with definitions, though. Apparently M* thinks that Macau is not part of China, and on the domestic front, that Puerto Rico is not part of the United States.

    % Bonds Category Avg
    United States 84.79 86.17
    Canada 6.18 3.44
    France 2.15 1.33
    Zambia 1.83 0.23
    United Kingdom 1.61 1.85
    Jamaica 1.14 0.19
    Germany 0.76 0.67
    Macao 0.42 0.25
    Ireland 0.36 0.58
    Puerto Rico 0.34 0.20
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    I use RPHYX and FPFIX for short-term bonds. Not expecting much at all - maybe 1.5% to 2% annual returns in the current interest rate environment. Better than nothing, but not by much.
    I balance these steady funds with higher risk (but low duration) vehicles RCTRX and JSVIX.
    Recently sold all of my MWFSX.
  • A New M* Low
    Well, there is that Starbucks inside a Wells Fargo at 19th Ave. Talk about a disaster inside a financial disaster.
    Hah! Charbucks will probably burn the beans on a drink that Wells Fargo ordered for you without your knowledge.
  • A New M* Low
    Well, there is that Starbucks inside a Wells Fargo at 19th Ave. Talk about a disaster inside a financial disaster.
  • Far Out
    Here’s another “Far Out” fund.
    UFO has soared 43% over the past year. As the handle suggests it invests in space related technology.
    From Lipper:
    (UFO) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance of the S-Network Space Index. The Fund uses a passive investment approach and invests in its Underlying Index which tracks a portfolio of companies engaged in space-related businesses, including those companies utilizing satellite technology.
    Inception April 2019
    ER 0.75%
  • Resorting to individual stock purchases instead of Mutual Funds
    Roughly 50% of my portfolio consists of individual equity positions. They have always been boughten with a long term buy and hold intention and were also chosen for their dividend growth prospects. Nothing fancy, just the usual suspects.
    I don't mess with them much but I do pick up a few shares when they go on 10% off sales like the recent activity in HRL & INTC.