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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • rare earth metals: GREENLAND.
    Following are edited excerpts from the NY Times article:
    One of the world’s last processors of rare earth metals outside China is buying mining rights in Greenland to reduce dependence on Russian ore and stabilize prices, in the latest move by Western companies to diversify supply chains following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    Rare earth metals are essential for the manufacture of a broad range of modern products, including electric car motors, offshore wind turbines and smart bombs. Demand has soared as automakers switch more of their production to electric vehicles.
    Dozens of mostly small companies mine rare earth ore around the world, but only two commercial-scale factories outside China perform the difficult task of chemically separating semi-processed ore into usable material for magnets in electric car motors and other applications. Toronto-based Neo Performance Materials buys semi-processed ore from Russia, the United States and Australia and does the chemical processes at factories in Estonia and China. Another company, Lynas, mines rare earth metals ore in Australia and does the chemical processes in Malaysia.
    Neo said on Monday that it was acquiring rare earth mining rights in Greenland from Hudson Resources, a tiny mining company based in Vancouver, British Columbia. The acquisition is the first move into rare earth mining by Neo, whose chief executive said his company planned to start mining and processing ore in Greenland in two to three years, with full production in about five years. The semi-processed ore will be shipped to Neo’s chemical separation factory in Estonia, a former Soviet republic on the Baltic Sea in Eastern Europe. The factory in Estonia currently buys three-fifths of its rare earth ore from Russia and the rest from Utah. The West has imposed many sanctions and other restrictions on companies and exports from Russia, but not yet on rare earth metals.
    Neo’s goal is to free itself of the need to buy ore at world prices. These prices fluctuate more widely than most commodities, surging up to 10-fold during periods of geopolitical tensions before crashing once tensions ease. Neo is also preparing to start building a factory in Estonia that will turn processed rare earths into magnets for electric car motors. With European automakers shifting production quickly toward electric cars, the European Union is offering financial assistance for the creation of a mines-to-magnets supply chain within Europe for rare earths.
    Although Greenland is geographically part of North America, it is an autonomous district of Denmark, a member of the European Union. Neo is not the first company to try to mine rare earths in Greenland. A consortium including a Chinese state-owned enterprise tried to open a mine at the southern tip of Greenland several years ago, at a rare earths deposit that also holds considerable uranium. That project was blocked by local opponents and regulators worried about the risk of radioactive contamination of the environment. A Canadian geologist who has advised Hudson Resources in Greenland and will now become a consultant to Neo, said the deposit in Sarfartoq being acquired by Neo had 97 percent less radioactive material per ton than the deposit at the southern tip of Greenland.
    The Sarfartoq deposit, on Greenland’s western coast, is also considerably smaller than the one at the southern tip of Greenland. Neo said the Sarfartoq deposit still had enough rare earths to meet Neo’s entire worldwide processing needs for at least 30 years, and possibly for a century if further drilling at the edge of the deposit confirms further rare earth ore.
    Rare earths, a group of 17 elements near the bottom of the periodic table, are not radioactive, but radioactive contaminants like uranium and thorium occur naturally in rare earth deposits. Controversies over how to dispose of those contaminants have led to the shuttering of rare earth separation factories over the past 40 years in Japan, Australia, France and the United States. Almost all of the American ore is mined in California and goes to China for processing, although a little is produced in Florida and processed in Utah. President Biden and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California announced plans in February to subsidize the restarting of chemical separation in California.
    Rare earths are essential but mostly used in trace amounts, so the actual value of the industry is small. Industry analysts put the worldwide value of rare earth ore sales at about $2 billion, and the value of completely processed magnetic powders and other rare earth materials at nearly $8 billion.
  • NightShares 100 ETF in registration
    NightShares debuted NSPY and NIWM about two months ago (last week of June) and they have since trailed SPY and IWM by, 12 and 15% (not annualized), respectively.
    Any thoughts from forum members in trying to explain this big underperformance would be great.
  • .....And....... fizzle. Again. 24 Aug. '22.
    Yes sir
    ....now or 12 months later sp500 may reach that stage
    Although most analysts from big-whales institutions are now singing sp500 finish near average 4400 -4500 by yr end
    [boa ML Subramanian most bearish 3600s -Jp Morgan Lakosstate 4900 bullish]
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    BRK is really a post-Buffett (91) play - can really go either way.
    It was also in the news recently that the potential CEO Greg Abel (60) is very light in BRK stock. He had a choice to convert his large stake in the Energy unit into BRK stock (tax free) OR cash and he chose the latter (and pay tax!). Unclear if BRK succession plan has changed but the immediate alternative Ajit Jain (71), who runs insurance operations, isn't very interested. The only thing certain is that son Howard Buffett will be the new Chairman after WB.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/06/berkshire-ceo-designate-abel-sells-stake-in-energy-company-he-led-for-870-million.html
    I could not locate this transaction in the list of latest filings at EDGAR. Do you by any chance have access to the filing for this transaction?
  • LNG news thing. 23rd Aug, '22
    The above article makes frequent use of the term "MTPA", but doesn't bother to define that term. Here is an excerpt from "Enerdynamics":
    LNG is typically measured in volumetric units. When in liquid form, LNG is commonly measured in metric tonnes. But you will sometimes see it measured in the amount of gas that it will provide when converted back to gaseous form. In this case, common units are billions of cubic meters (bcm) or billions of cubic feet (Bcf).
    Annual capacities of flow rates of facilities are often described in million tonnes per annum or millions of tonnes per year (these are the same thing). Various abbreviations are used including MMtpa, MTPA, MMty/y, or million mt/yr.
    Additionally, 1 MMBtu = 1,000,000 Btu
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Hi @hank
    I've used Google Finance for more than 10 years to build and use a "watchlist". Mine is only for watching changes for etf's and/or stocks. These may be viewed "real time" (1 day view) or you may select other time frames (5 day, etc.). If one places a traditional mutual fund ticker, the shortest performance time frame is one month. I use M* to view daily/weekly changes for traditional mutual fund tickers (5 characters). This link should show DKNG real time. You should also see an icon oval with the word "follow". You may click this icon to set this ticker in a watchlist. Using the search window at the top, you may enter other tickers and continue to build a watchlist. The search will also begin to build a "choice list" as you enter a ticker, to help one be able to select what they are searching. You may also remove watchlist items you no longer want to monitor.
    If there are particular news items about a ticker, scroll down the page to check.
    NOTE: to the best of my knowledge, one does not need a Google account or have to log-in to build a watchlist (this link was posted without any log-in). Perhaps one can have more functions with a log-in to Google. I use Google Chrome for the browser, so I don't know what you'll see or be able to do using other browsers.
    So, you won't have piles of data about a ticker, but is a fast and easy reference page for a watchlist.
    Google Finance, set for DraftKings
    Let us know what you discover.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    BRK is really a post-Buffett (91) play - can really go either way.
    It was also in the news recently that the potential CEO Greg Abel (60) is very light in BRK stock. He had a choice to convert his large stake in the Energy unit into BRK stock (tax free) OR cash and he chose the latter (and pay tax!). Unclear if BRK succession plan has changed but the immediate alternative Ajit Jain (71), who runs insurance operations, isn't very interested. The only thing certain is that son Howard Buffett will be the new Chairman after WB.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/06/berkshire-ceo-designate-abel-sells-stake-in-energy-company-he-led-for-870-million.html
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    Several past posts:
    1) "MSF describes it—blend—a blue chip stock with its heady growth days in the past.
    "Agree with msf and Lewis assessment. The fast growing business (iPhones, computers, music, and AppleTV) since Steve Jobs's returned has plateaued. In some area Apple is trailing."
    2) "Growth is about revenues, cash flow and earnings versus the benchmark and industry peers and it’s forward looking, not from five or ten years ago."
    FD: Reality check, after close to 3 years, Apple proved to be MORE THAN JUST A BLEND BLUE CHIP
    One year performance......AAPL +12.3....VFINX -6.6%......JPM -23.7%
    Three year performance...AAPL +49.65...VFINX +14.9%...JPM +6.1%
    In just 3 years AAPL made 174% more than VFINX(SP500)....221.8 vs 47.8%...see (chart)
  • CAPD ending. Sell now or wait?
    Anyone else own iPath Shiller CAPE ETN (CAPD)? I got a notice that it is maturing on October 12, 2022. My choices are to sell now or wait and be cashed out (at the price on October 4). Is there any reason to prefer one option over the other?
    Thanks for any advice.
  • Time to invest in natural gas ?
    NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers and producers this year have struck deals to sell 48 million tonnes of LNG, which will eventually pump up exports 60% from current levels, although much of the output remains years away.
    LNG demand is soaring as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global prices to their highest in at least 14 years. Buyers in Europe have looked West in a move away from Russian gas, and Chinese buyers are striking long-term deals after a pause.
    New gas-export plants are being developed across the United States, and Mexico and Canada are poised to join as significant gas exporters, with plants proposed for their west coasts.
    Eight North American LNG export terminals are under construction and over a dozen more could receive financial greenlights by 2023. Some buyers have locked in supplies from plants that have not yet been approved for construction, so not every supply agreement may go ahead.
    "The dynamics have shifted," said Charlie Riedl, executive director for trade group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas. "Buyers are trying to lock up firm agreements where they can (to) guarantee that gas is going to be delivered," he said.
    For a factbox on North American LNG export plants, see
    This week, European gas prices hit $84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and U.S. gas futures on Tuesday topped $10 per mmBtu for the first time since 2008.
    'LONG-TERM ROLE'
    Goldman Sachs forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 12% 424 MTPA next year and expects new plants that will supply 156 MTPA to be approved within the next five years.
    Growing demand has made the United States this year's largest LNG exporting nation during the first six months. Approved projects that are expected to begin shipments between 2023-2026 could keep the country in first place.
    "It is important for the United States to supply the market to support allies in Europe and Asia and improve the ability of the developing world to access gas," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global LNG's chief executive. His firm has entered into agreements to sell 18.5 MTPA of LNG since last September.
    Some of the biggest deals are from Chinese firms returning to the U.S. market after a pause over tariff disputes. Late last year, Venture Global LNG struck deals for 11 MTPA with units of China's Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. China's ENN Natural Gas Co signed separate deals last year with Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer.
    Due to the lack of available capacity, some recent deals have involved facilities whose construction have not yet received financial approvals. Those agreements "reinforce our conviction in the long-term role" for LNG in global energy markets, said Tim Wyatt, a Cheniere senior vice president.
    For a factbox on recent North American LNG deals, see
    But rising demand has led to construction of three new U.S. export projects and several more could be approved in 2023.
    "The global energy crisis has been years in the making due to significant underinvestment," said Octavio Simoes, CEO of Tellurian, which recently started construction on its long-delayed plant in Louisiana.
    TOP EXPORTERS
    In 2021, top LNG exporters were Australia at 78.5 MTPA, Qatar at 77.0 MTPA, the United States at 67.0 MTPA and Russia at 29.7 MTPA, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), an industry group.
    The United States, with vast reserves of shale gas, is on track to produce a record 85 MTPA of LNG this year, according to U.S. government projections.
    About 68% of U.S LNG exports went to Europe during the first half of 2022 versus just 35% in all of 2021, according to data provider Refinitiv.
    There are four export plants under construction in the United States that will boost the nation's capacity to produce LNG from 104.6 MTPA now to 156.3 MTPA in 2026.
    In addition, two export plants are under construction in Canada and two in Mexico that will add another 20.8 MTPA to North America's LNG production once all of the facilities enter service by 2027.
    (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
  • LNG news thing. 23rd Aug, '22
    You'll recognize the names that are dropped.
    Taken from the TRP webpage.
    NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers and producers this year have struck deals to sell 48 million tonnes of LNG, which will eventually pump up exports 60% from current levels, although much of the output remains years away.
    LNG demand is soaring as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global prices to their highest in at least 14 years. Buyers in Europe have looked West in a move away from Russian gas, and Chinese buyers are striking long-term deals after a pause.
    New gas-export plants are being developed across the United States, and Mexico and Canada are poised to join as significant gas exporters, with plants proposed for their west coasts.
    Eight North American LNG export terminals are under construction and over a dozen more could receive financial greenlights by 2023. Some buyers have locked in supplies from plants that have not yet been approved for construction, so not every supply agreement may go ahead.
    "The dynamics have shifted," said Charlie Riedl, executive director for trade group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas. "Buyers are trying to lock up firm agreements where they can (to) guarantee that gas is going to be delivered," he said.
    For a factbox on North American LNG export plants, see
    This week, European gas prices hit $84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and U.S. gas futures on Tuesday topped $10 per mmBtu for the first time since 2008.
    'LONG-TERM ROLE'
    Goldman Sachs forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 12% 424 MTPA next year and expects new plants that will supply 156 MTPA to be approved within the next five years.
    Growing demand has made the United States this year's largest LNG exporting nation during the first six months. Approved projects that are expected to begin shipments between 2023-2026 could keep the country in first place.
    "It is important for the United States to supply the market to support allies in Europe and Asia and improve the ability of the developing world to access gas," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global LNG's chief executive. His firm has entered into agreements to sell 18.5 MTPA of LNG since last September.
    Some of the biggest deals are from Chinese firms returning to the U.S. market after a pause over tariff disputes. Late last year, Venture Global LNG struck deals for 11 MTPA with units of China's Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. China's ENN Natural Gas Co signed separate deals last year with Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer.
    Due to the lack of available capacity, some recent deals have involved facilities whose construction have not yet received financial approvals. Those agreements "reinforce our conviction in the long-term role" for LNG in global energy markets, said Tim Wyatt, a Cheniere senior vice president.
    For a factbox on recent North American LNG deals, see
    But rising demand has led to construction of three new U.S. export projects and several more could be approved in 2023.
    "The global energy crisis has been years in the making due to significant underinvestment," said Octavio Simoes, CEO of Tellurian, which recently started construction on its long-delayed plant in Louisiana.
    TOP EXPORTERS
    In 2021, top LNG exporters were Australia at 78.5 MTPA, Qatar at 77.0 MTPA, the United States at 67.0 MTPA and Russia at 29.7 MTPA, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), an industry group.
    The United States, with vast reserves of shale gas, is on track to produce a record 85 MTPA of LNG this year, according to U.S. government projections.
    About 68% of U.S LNG exports went to Europe during the first half of 2022 versus just 35% in all of 2021, according to data provider Refinitiv.
    There are four export plants under construction in the United States that will boost the nation's capacity to produce LNG from 104.6 MTPA now to 156.3 MTPA in 2026.
    In addition, two export plants are under construction in Canada and two in Mexico that will add another 20.8 MTPA to North America's LNG production once all of the facilities enter service by 2027.
    (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
  • GQHPX
    Nobody departed. Co-managers were added to ALL of Rajiv Jain's funds to help him. He is founder & CIO of GQG, so has some other stuff to do too.
    https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/gqg-bolsters-fund-lineup-with-pm-promotions/a2391684
  • GQHPX
    @Mav123,
    The Summary Prospectus (dated August 1, 2022) indicates that Rajiv Jain,
    James Anders, Brian Kersmanc, and Sudarshan Murthy manage GQFIX.
    Mr. Kersmanc and Mr. Murthy started managing the fund on July 1, 2022.
    Who departed GQFIX?
  • RPIEX: Contrarian Bond Fund
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54925/what-s-a-bond-fund-like-this-doing-in-t-rowe-s-stable-rpiex
    I question whether this fund should any longer be considered “contrarian”. ISTM that for the past year or more it’s been “going with the trend” - that being betting on generally rising interest rates.
    If you really want to be “contrarian” today buy a traditional long-only investment grade bond fund having an average maturity of 15 years or more. I recently speculated that such bonds / bond funds appear ripe to have a good year. Received a “thumbs down” from member. Suspect that would be the prevailing opinion / conventional wisdom today.
    Enjoying the discussion and everyone’s comment.
  • RPIEX: Contrarian Bond Fund
    “ Although the benchmark is the ICE BofA US 3-Month Treasury Bill Index, the portfolio’s unconstrained approach makes direct positioning comparisons with the benchmark much less informative than for traditional fixed income funds whose holdings are more closely aligned with an index. As a result, we refer to positions as long (those benefiting from an increase in price) or short (those benefiting from a decrease in price) as opposed to overweight or underweight relative to the benchmark.”
    So then as noted by @yogibearbull, this is one of the important lines in their portfolio:
    Asset Class Net Short Long Cat. Index
    U.S. Equity 1.11 0.00 1.11 0.75 –
    Non-U.S. Equ 0.52 0.00 0.52 0.05 –
    Fixed Income 29.50. 76.30 105.79 91.65
    Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.28 –
    Cash 68.75. 0.00 68.75 47.93 –
    Not Classified 0.12 0.00 0.12 1.70 –
  • GQHPX
    @Observant1, @BenWP, and others, is this a good fund to own since the manager has departed? GQFIX
  • RPIEX: Contrarian Bond Fund
    Top 10 holdings showing several derivative positions. Normally, one has to scroll to the end of portfolio list to find derivatives mentioned.
    I'm not sure that's accurate, even though Morningstar has it as such.
    https://troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/semi-annual-report/sub-type/mf?productCode=GUN&currency=USD
    https://troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/dynamic-global-bond-fund.html
    Morningstar's data on bond fund holdings can sometimes be misleading. You can also see a number of derivatives in the top ten holdings of more popular bond funds:
    https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pttrx/portfolio