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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Federal Reserve November 2021 Financial Stability Report
    PDF
    "In doing their outreach to "domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others" (financial and business sector actors), most respondents were concerned with the interactions of several categories of risk:
    ° a worsening of the pandemic,
    ° a sudden surge in interest rates,
    ° a significant reduction in the pace of the ongoing economic recovery,
    ° risks emanating from China, other EMEs, and Europe."
  • Understanding Tail Risk
    CEOs of other high flying stocks are also selling. Evidently, AMC CEO sold 1/4th of his holding and has filed to sell another 1/4th.
  • Climate change funds
    "The good news is that if you believe that innovation in climate technology is set to take off, the investment industry has introduced a raft of new funds globally. The bad news is that many are unproven and much more volatile than diversified equity funds. Twelve of the 29 funds exhibited below were introduced in the last three years. Climate tech funds with at least a three-year track record have an average three-year standard deviation of 29.5 versus 18.4 for the Vanguard 500 fund."
    "In addition, investment funds must own publicly traded companies. But there are very few of these, relative to privately held companies, and they are concentrated in competitive industries such as solar-panel manufacturing and mining commodities such as lithium."

    Link
    I don't plan on putting more than 10% into these funds altogether.
    I excluded CNRG from my final list because of its youth, the nearly 5% stake in Tesla, and a nearly 8% weight in China. Its three year return has been superior to the funds I chose above. OTOH, I am specifically interested in a more diverse global lineup than CNRG provides.
  • Understanding Tail Risk
    @JD_co & @MikeM
    Thanks for the pointers. Will check them out. TAIL gained over 20% in Qtr. 1 2020. (Guess that met the definition of a collapse.). I’ve had it 2-3 weeks and it looked rock steady. But didn’t hold up well today.
    Compared to the inverse Dow (DOG), which I played around with, TAIL has been less volatile over the time it’s been in existence. I’d agree with @JD_co that it’s not going to make you money in decent markets. FWIW - Here’s a cut & paste of its strategy:
    “The Cambria Tail Risk ETF seeks to mitigate significant downside market risk. The Fund intends to invest in a portfolio of "out of the money" put options purchased on the U.S. stock market. TAIL strategy offers the potential advantage of buying more puts when volatility is low and fewer puts when volatility is high.”
    TAIL
    Side note: Musk wanted to sell some Tesla. But didn’t want to “spook” the market. So he set up this Twitter gig to make it look as if he were being coerced into selling by his loyal followers. (There are reports his brother sold a big chunk the prior day.). The market didn’t buy it. Now - push hard on the sky-high technology sector and it can set in motion a whole chain of unwanted consequences.
  • Climate change funds
    "The good news is that if you believe that innovation in climate technology is set to take off, the investment industry has introduced a raft of new funds globally. The bad news is that many are unproven and much more volatile than diversified equity funds. Twelve of the 29 funds exhibited below were introduced in the last three years. Climate tech funds with at least a three-year track record have an average three-year standard deviation of 29.5 versus 18.4 for the Vanguard 500 fund."
    "In addition, investment funds must own publicly traded companies. But there are very few of these, relative to privately held companies, and they are concentrated in competitive industries such as solar-panel manufacturing and mining commodities such as lithium."

    Link
  • Climate change funds
    I have been looking into these for my wife's accounts. And Tesla can be an issue depending on the underlying index. Given the recent runup These are fund whose returns aren't so heavily influenced by Tesla.
    Descriptions are from etf.com. For various categories of energy I'm looking at:
    PBD
    passively managed to invest in a wide array of global renewable energy companies, including those involved in conservation, improving energy efficiency and advancing renewable energy. The index may invest in large cap firms and those that derives at least 10% of its market value from clean energy activities, but has bias on pure-play, small- and midcap companies. Importantly, PBD’s portfolio companies are selected based on the index provider’s opinion of their “potential for capital appreciation.” In that sense, PBD is more akin to an actively managed strategy than other funds in the segment. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly. For diversification, the fund caps its largest holdings at 5% and is required to invest half its assets internationally.
    ICLN
    ICLN invests in global clean energy companies, which is defined as those involved in the biofuels, ethanol, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and wind industries. Aside from holding companies that produce energy through these means, ICLN also includes companies that develop technology and equipment used in the process. Selected by the index committee, the fund is weighted by market-cap and exposure score — subject to several constraints — and reconstituted semi-annually. Prior to April 19, 2021, the index followed a more narrow methodology.
    Both are down this year. But that's a feature for me. Ten year returns seem reasonable compared to traditional utilities. There isn't much overlap in their top ten holdings anyway. They weight sectors differently. Neither has much exposure to China. Another feature as far as I am concerned.
    Then there is GRID.
    GRID is concentrated fund targeting global equities determined to be in the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector as determined by Clean Edge. The fund includes companies that are either Pure Play — more than 50% revenues or Diversified — less than 50% revenues are derived from the smart grid and electrical energy infrastructure sector. The sector may include business in electric grid, electric meters and devices, networks, energy storage and management, and enabling software. GRID also screens for minimum liquidity and market cap. To enhance exposure to the smart grid market, the index provider uses a tiered weighting scheme. Securities are initially market cap weighted. Then a collective weight of 80% for Pure Play and 20% for Diversified are allocated. The Index is reconstituted semi-annually and rebalanced quarter.
    GRID is on the MFOpremium Honor Roll. Lipper/Refinitiv lists it as global infrastructure.
    I am also looking at three water funds:
    CGW
    The fund starts with all eligible securities from the S&P Global BMI Index that are classified in either water equipment & materials or water utilities & infrastructure cluster. To identify industry relevance, each company from both clusters will be assigned an exposure score based on its business description and most recent reported revenue. The 25 largest companies with an exposure score of 1 from each cluster will be selected for inclusion. However, if fewer than 25 companies have an exposure score of 1, the fund will select the largest companies with a 0.5 exposure score until the portfolio contains a total of 25 constituents for each cluster. Stocks are weighted by market-cap within each bucket and are constrained, such that securities with an exposure score of 1 are capped at 10% and those with 0.5 exposure score are capped at 5%. Index rebalancing occurs semi-annually.
    PIO
    The fund's (ironically appropriate) liquidity-weighting scheme produces a concentrated portfolio that only loosely resembles our market-cap-weighted benchmark. PIO is dominated by large- to midcap firms that create products that conserve and purify water for homes, businesses, and industries. Also, only companies participating in the “Green Economy” as determined by SustainableBusiness.com LLC are eligible for inclusion. The index currently limits weighting in both the country and issuer level, to ensure diversification between constituents. Lastly, it is important to note that the fund uses a “full replication” method to track the underlying index. Rebalancing is done quarterly while reconstitution is done annually.
    FIW
    FIW holds 36 of the largest US-listed water companies, ranked by market cap and weighted equally within five tiers. Companies of any market capitalization that derive revenue from the potable and wastewater industry are selected. In addition, its tiered equal-weighting scheme boosts the weight of small- and micro-cap companies, hence, reducing concentration. FIW changed its name from First Trust ISE Water Index Fund to First Trust Water ETF on December 14, 2016, which had no impact to FIW's investment strategy. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted semi-annually.
    Still not too much overlap for me.
    I check out holdings and weights using this link to the old M* data:format
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=fsmex&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Just replace the FSMEX with the code you want to look up.
  • This Risk Free Bond Now Pays 7.12%
    Why would it be worth jumping through all of those hoops just to buy 10k/yr?
  • Understanding Tail Risk
    Thank you. Gold is trending upward this week as inflation increases; announced 6.1% this morning.
    Not a hedge but letting the cash invested in VTIP and bank loan funds.
  • U.S. Monetary Policy: The Risks Are Two-Tailed
    This commentary discusses the unusual combination of factors that are impacting the current spike in inflation and the implications for potential Fed responses. The nature of the combination is thought to limit the effectiveness of the tools the Fed has to respond to them. That may at least in the near term slow the Feds pivot to implementation of rate hikes.
    The Risks Are Two-Tailed
  • Small Caps
    Everything that goes up must come down at some point.
    Also, keep in mind Tesla rose exponentially prior to its stock split which occurred in August 2020. From an article I read which stated:
    When Tesla announced the split to when it actually happened at the end of the month, shares rose 81%. The Board announced the stock split on August 11, 2020.
  • Small Caps
    I’m not surprised, @TheShadow. I little style drift is OK, but TSLA in a SC fund? Yesterday TSLA declined 12% dragging some Baron funds down. At one point in recent months, TSLA represented 47% of Baron Partners. I believe Twillo came crashing back to earth recently. There may be something to be learned from the story of Icarus.
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    Thanks for the reply @stillers. Most importantly, yes the Bills now have me very worried with NE starting to play consistently well. The Bills O-line was down 2 starters and they were the #1 reason for the loss against Jax. Allen was under siege on every play and when that happens he starts making bone-head plays. The 2 remaining games against the Patriots will be pivotal for who wins the division. Hence, my 2nd favorite team next weekend will be the Browns!
    Yes, I noticed the big opening spikes FDRV has had. Once bought (w/a limit order of course) the technology is obviously a long term holding, so buying at 28, 29 or even 30 probably won't matter much in 5 years.
  • Small Caps
    From a WSJ January 10, 2021 article, "The Top Stock Funds of 2020
    Morgan Stanley’s Inception Portfolio, under Dennis Lynch, won the stock-fund race with a gain of 150%," the fund's performance was due to investments in several stocks, but not limited to the following:
    Square, Tesla, Zoom Video, Spotify and Twillo during the pandemic.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    For those not familiar, and those who will soon wish they were not.
    That was NOT a serious question. Rather...
    FD1000 is a constant troll of mine who is Living in the Past (Thanks, Jethro!) , desperately trying to discredit me wherever he goes, with whatever vague, twisted memory he might still retain from years of our joint posting activity on several forums.
    He appears to have no life other than his inherently flawed and underperforming Yugo Racing Scheme, while trying to sell his wares on whatever forum allows his continued participation. Sadly he somehow still however finds the time for daily trolling of my posts. If he would have just done what he daily tells "Average Joe Investor" to do, buy and hold an S&P index fund, he'd likely have twice the net worth he currently has. A tall glass of FOMO juice would have served him well. It's truly sad.
    FWIW, I currently have a smallish 5-yr CD ladder yanking down 3.35% APY. All proceeds from maturing CDs over the past several years have been rolled into stocks. The ladder was started after early retirement at age 56 to bridge the Red Zone divide. It's done its job exactly as meticulously planned and has been being liquidated for several years.
    For 30+ years I was 99% stocks. That dropped to ~60/40 in the coupla years prior to retirement. Since retirement I have always maintained an acceptable % in stocks but increased that to a significant % since the 2020 crash. I've posted all that several times on several forums, but somehow selective memory and ill intent can get in the way of some posters.