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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Improve Your Returns
    "...Demographic trends mean that women are controlling a greater share of financial wealth, since they live longer than male partners. At present, women control about 53% of investible assets; by 2030 this will rise to two-thirds, according to a study by the Family Wealth Advisors Council. ‘Making the industry more women-friendly has to be a clear priority,’ Jones says."
    Is the goal to manage money and grow it, or to make women feel comfortable? Wise decisions are key. Men trade much more often, says the article. That may be true. So, they're shooting themselves in the foot. Seems to me, however, that it's not gender that matters, but a thing called WISDOM. I just made my first and only trade in YEARS the other day, buying a VERY small position in a foreign electric utility company. *The most recent "Wealthtrack" show with Consuelo Mack featured Dan Rosenberg. Right now, he's suggesting UTILITIES because they are currently out of favor. (Gretzky: "I don't skate to the puck. I skate to where the puck is GOING TO BE.")
  • Here Come the Teens: They Can’t Vote, but They’re Old Enough to Buy Stocks.
    image
    Like many teenagers, Ronak Davé enjoys the videogame Roblox. But he doesn’t play much these days, preferring to trade the stock instead. He recently sold a stake in Roblox after holding it for a few weeks, notching a 25% gain, or about $200.
    “I saw a pullback after looking at the technical patterns,” Davé says. “I noticed some resistance coming back and thought it would go down.” At 16, Davé isn’t your typical trader. A high school junior outside Chicago, he started trading a year ago and now spends a few hours a day on the markets ...

    Fidelity investments introduced a youth account product last month for those ages 13 to 17. The accounts come with a debit card, unlimited trading, and access to nearly the entire US market - overseen voluntarily by parents …
    Fidelity’s youth accounts are like a standard brokerage account with training wheels. Teens can trade all they want, but Fidelity restricts the types of stocks to U.S.listed companies, doesn’t allow options or margin trading, and recommends capping annual deposits at $30,000.

    Barron’s June 14, 2021
  • Dancing With The Trend - C.Lynn Bolin
    I just completed an article on Seeking Alpha with the May data from Mutual Fund Observer. It is available in the link below. I hope you enjoy the article.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434474-dancing-with-trend?v=1623516212&comments=show#comment-89202343
  • The Fed this summer will take another step in developing a digital currency
    More detail on the debate surrounding the Fed's look into releasing a CBDC.
    Neha Narula, who’s leading the effort at MIT to work with the Boston Fed on a central bank digital currency, called the project “a once-in-a-century opportunity to redesign the dollar” in a way that supports innovation much like the internet did.
    But.....
    “The United States should not implement a [central bank digital currency] simply because we can or because others are doing so,” the American Bankers Association said in a statement to lawmakers this week. The benefits “are theoretical, difficult to measure, and may be elusive,” while the negative consequences “could be severe,” the group wrote.
    Fed explores ‘once in a century’ bid to remake the U.S. dollar
  • Measuring the Financial Consequences of IRA to Roth IRA Conversions
    Interesting conclusion:
    The decision to convert or not to convert may be influenced by external factors beyond maximizing disposable income. It would seem desirable to convert when asset prices are depressed because there is less tax paid and the state of the market is amenable to a recovery. Following the same logic, converting when asset prices are inflated would seem imprudent.
    https://i-orp.com/modeldescription/Vol15Issue1.pdf#page=49
    I found this tidbit as a referenced link within the Optimal Retirement Planner which @davidmoran has referenced often. I am finding lots of useful links and information embedded in this planner. If you are approaching retirement or even in retirement this seems like a worthy tool to use.
    Linked here:
    https://i-orp.com/Plans/index.html
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    I have several accounts which I treat each separately but with an eye on overall allocation. My primary accounts withover 50% of my assets is an IRA Rollover with 14 Funds focusing on low correlation, distinct style boxes, asset allocation etc. I rarely update this portfolio and have allocations to both Growth and Value in Domestic Large, Mid and Small. Also, I like to invest in Int'l Gorwth and Value where most investors pick one Int'l Fund. I also own EM and Int'l SMid, Fixed Inc Core Plus, Multi-Sector Fixed.
    I have a Roth @ Vanguard with 3-4 Index Funds. My current 401k is my tactical portfolio with another 10-12 funds & ETF's.
    I will consolidate over the next10-15 years as I get closer to retirement.
  • So you’re thinking about investing in the precious metals mining sector?
    +1 hank. Based on the Fido chart of OPGSX, 10k invested as of 5/31/11 atrophied to $2,425 by year-end 2015! If I was going to play in this sector, I would consider GDX since I could sell without incurring transaction fees. I'm sure Rono could add quite a bit to this discussion !
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    I like Hank's approach a lot. I hold a fair number of alternative funds, as these types of funds work, until they don't. My expected yearly return for these funds is 2.5-3 % .My previous experiences with ACVVX QMNNX PAUAX and MFLDX, among others reinforce my wariness of these funds. In the future I may just rely on MERFX ADANX and CVSIX to simplify things.
  • So you’re thinking about investing in the precious metals mining sector?
    I guess I felt obligated to caution the uninitiated about the volatility of this sector. There’s lots of different ways to play the inflation card - if you think that’s where we’re going. Bullion is tamer than the miners, and there’s lots of allocation funds with limited exposure.
    Adding up the string of 5 consecutive red (loosing) years for OPGSX beginning in 2011 I get north of 120%. Ouch! Who has the stamina to ride something like that out? (And it’s “5 stars” at M* - which should make you wonder about those ratings).
    OK - I did my civic duty.
  • So you’re thinking about investing in the precious metals mining sector?
    I thought it was worth posting this illuminative chart uncovered doing research this morning. Might make one think twice. Personally, I’m bullish on gold. (But I know only slightly more than the lamp-post on the corner.)
    As this Chart shows, you can lose a lot of money playing in this arena. Check out the “return” from 2011-2015. (And Morningstar has the audacity to give this baby a 5-Star rating!)
    Disclosure: I own this fund. It is among my smallest holdings.
  • The Longest Day
    I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. I’ll give it a go.

    The Duke
    Kurt Jurgens
    Peter Lawford
    Rod Steiger
    Eddie Albert
    Robt Mitchum
    Richard Burton
    Paul Anka
    Red Buttons
    Tom Tryon
    Sean Connery
    Henry Fonda
    Roddy McDowall
    ......................................And that's only what I can recall off the top of my head. It's really, really good.
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056197/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
    It's well worth watching. Long, but good.
    Gert Fröbe played the German milkman I mentioned. For those who don't know, he also played 'Goldfinger' in the Bond movie of the same name (but was dubbed b/c his accent was too thick for audiences)
    Speaking of Bond, I think Sean Connery purposely asked to play a cut-up part to contrast with his Bond persona. For example, he comes off the Higgins Boat and does a clumsy face-plant into the water, and is a snarky 'everyman' type of grunt in his other scenes, too.
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    In our Roths, my wife and I both own about 12 each, all actively managed. We try not to have overlap, but still it's probably 50-60% overlap.
    In our 401ks, we both own fewer since our employers both offer fewer options. In my 401k, I think I own 6, all but 2 are index. Wife 401k is about the same.
  • The Secret IRS Files: How The Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax
    I think this "true tax rate" is ridiculous headline generating nonsense. They take the total unrealized gain of public companies stock and then claim Buffet and Bezos, etc should have paid taxes on that number. They may be "worth" that on paper but these are unrealized gains, not money in the bank.
    Under this theory, we would all have to pay taxes on any unrealized gains, including the appreciation in your own real estate. If property values fall would the government give us a rebate?
    Buffet's income tax rate is 24/125 or 19%. I agree this is low, but so does he. Buffet has always said that the tax system is stacked in his and other millionaires favor.
    Wealth taxes have been tired and abandoned in Europe as ineffective. What we need is a simpler tax system, that makes it harder to game, and better audits and enforcement
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Junk and semi-junk munis and securitized. Yup: PTIAX.
    Muni: 40.35
    Securitized: 47.19%
    ... Yet, alas: YTD up a mere 1.18 and in the 67th %ile. Love the monthlies, though. PTIAX.
  • The Longest Day
    I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. I’ll give it a go.
    The Duke
    Kurt Jurgens
    Peter Lawford
    Rod Steiger
    Eddie Albert
    Robt Mitchum
    Richard Burton
    Paul Anka
    Red Buttons
    Tom Tryon
    Sean Connery
    Henry Fonda
    Roddy McDowall
    ......................................And that's only what I can recall off the top of my head. It's really, really good.
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056197/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    I am in bond funds because they offer me the best returns with the lowest risk. Their trend persistency combined with their low volatility enable me to best implement the scale up buying strategy I learned from Nicolas Darvas. My first bond trade was in junk bonds in 1991. It was January 17 one of the greatest momentum days ever in equities. That day the Dow surged some 114 points which at that time was its second best on record. As is often the case there was a lag and a few days later junk bonds went on tear and had 60 consecutive trading days without a decline. That smooth ride upward continued for the next three years until February 1994 in junk bonds as they bested the S@P over that period.
    That one LUCKY trade made a lasting impression on me and the way I have traded my capital ever since. Most especially after the tech wreck in March 2000. There have been many repeat performances and exhibitions of unreal trend persistency since 2000 in various bond fund categories. Emerging market debt in the early 2000s, junk bonds 2009-12, junk munis 2014, bank loans 2016, and last but not least the securitized category since last spring - IOFIX, BDKAX, abd SEMPX. IOFIX has had something like only 8 down days since last April 2020 when many of the veteran bond traders re entered. An amazing run over a 15 month period.
    Some remember me as a day trader in the stock index futures. Others as a trader in tech funds who also exploited the new fund effect as well as datelining. Yet less than 3% of my total trading profits have come from daytrading and only around 13% from tech funds, new funds, datelining. Meaning almost 85% of my nest egg has come from bond funds - my one true love in the financial arena. I have always said everyone needs a trading or investing niche and I found my niche in bond funds.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Current yield PRWCX is just 1%. I note (again) the HEAVY chunk of the portfolio in utilities. 14% vs. category avg. of just 3.5%. Traditionally, utilities operate like bonds, with the steady income stream. Surely, dividend-paying utilities are the place to be recently, with bonds offering so little, eh? Giroux has said recently that as these utilities continue to green-ify, they are becoming a GROWTH story, too.
  • Gohmert asks if federal agencies can change Earth's or moon's orbits to fight climate change
    One can be very conservative, or very liberal, and also be intelligent.
    When I see elected officials like this, I'm reminded of a comment made of Nixon nominee G. Harrold Carswell at his confirmation hearing: "Even if he is mediocre, there are a lot of mediocre judges and people and lawyers, and they are entitled to a little representation, aren't they?"
    http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1895379_1895421_1895542,00.html
    With officials like this, mediocre would be a big step up.
    I just watched an election debate tonight, and while it had it's fair share of canned remarks, it was a pleasure to listen to so many candidates who were knowledgeable, well spoken, and respectful of their opponents. It's not impossible.
  • Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
    @AndyJ
    I could be a little wealthier now if I'd gone into that trade more heavily back then, instead of cautiously.
    This "trend" may persist. Good for you for paying attention and for acting on it. Some trends are short lived...some longer in duration. To me, this is where 3 month charts are helpful. Trends tend to persist. When they break down...they tend make "lower-lows" over a 1-3-6 month time frame. Go luck with your investments.
    Here's an example using VIS over the last year...short lower-lows, but the trend shows longer "higher-lows". I try to look at trends this way. The red arrows are "lower Lows' and the green arrows are "higher-lows".
    45 % higher-lows over the last year.
    image