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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2021 capital gains distribution estimates (mutual funds and ETFs)
    Vanguard list includes ETFs.
    Typically, you have to go to ETF sponsors' sites. There are so many ETFs and ETF sponsors. But I suppose that a thread can be started with the major ETF Sponsors, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Invesco, Schwab. But then it would be lot of effort to make the list complete.
    BlackRock https://www.ishares.com/us/capital-gains-distributions
    Vanguard https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/FADIVDAT_2021.pdf
    State Street https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/resources/documents/capital-gain-distributions
    Invesco https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=d575f061-c209-45fe-a6f5-cf8d9735aae5
    Schwab - I only found its general schedule https://schwab.bynder.com/m/15dbdbecf7339e7f/
  • Roth IRA and Vanguard Brokerage
    Do you have to sell the Roth because your Vanguard holdings are unavailable at TRP?
    If so, you may want to consider exchanging your Vanguard holdings for ones which are available at TRP prior to the transfer.
    This should enable in-kind transfers of your Roth assets from Vanguard to TRP.
    Maybe, maybe not. Worst case is if one has Vanguard funds in an account on Vanguard's mutual fund platform and one wants to transfer money into a closed TRP fund.
    One cannot buy non-Vanguard funds on Vanguard's mutual fund platform. One would have to open a Vanguard brokerage account and then transfer the Vanguard funds from one Vanguard platform to the other. Then one would have to sell shares of a Vanguard fund and I suspect wait a day before buying some open TRP fund as a placeholder. Then one could do the in-kind transfer. Then on the TRP side, one would do a same day exchange from the placeholder fund into the target TRP fund.
    See also Rube Goldberg.
    Or one could fill out the TRP form indicating (a) which Vanguard funds to sell in what amounts (or to sell everything) and (b) what TRP fund(s) to buy when the cash is received by TRP. The transfer form has an option to request that Vanguard wire the money. Vanguard charges all of $10 for that unless you're a Flagship customer. Then it is free. This helps reduce time out of the market.
    BTW, TRP has an option to fill out the form "online". But their customer service tells me even if you do this that when you get to the end of the process the system is going to tell you to print out the form. Then sign it, and you may also be required to get a signature guarantee (it isn't required for transfers from Vanguard). Then send the form to TRP.
  • Roth IRA and Vanguard Brokerage
    Like @Observant1 said, talk with TRP first before starting the transfer. You need to open a brokerage account first (if you don’t already have one) and have TRP help fill out the form. You still need to print out the form and mail them.
    If TRP carries the funds on their brokerage, you can do “in-kind” transfer without selling and buying on TRP end. If the fund is already “closed”, trying to buying at TRP is not possible. Thus, in-kind transfer is the way to go.
    If these are Vanguard funds and TRP carries them but on their Transaction fee platform, then you need to find the equivalent fund on TRP brokerage.
    Fidelity is most convenient for this type of brokerage-to-brokerage transfer. Everything is done securely online without having sending in the paperwork, Vanguard and TRP follow the traditional way and take several more days to complete the transfer.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I think you guys understood when I said “I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years,” I only meant I noted his pronouncements (and prepared a watch list to validate his pronouncements.) Luckily, I never invested in line with his pronouncements.
    Finally, I respect money managers’ skills, even those whose ways of marketing I do not agree with, Grantham included. One just hopes one never comes across a Madoff or his variants.
    Good luck to all of us in our effort to fine tune our BS radar.
    Wishing you all healthy investing!
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.
    This briefing is for the week ending November 19, 2021.
    The Index Review
    For the week the major equity indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -1.38%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.24%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.85%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer discretionary +3.74%, technology +2.39%, and utilities +0.98%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.26% and is up year to date 25.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.83% and for the week lost -0.10%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.83%.
    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) +2.35%, EWT (Tiawan) +1.41% and SPY (US S&P 500) +0.32%.
    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +0.70%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.21% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.11%.
    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +4.11%, DBA (Agriculture) +1.62% and GLD (Gold) -1.05%.
    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.16%, MOO (Agribusness) -1.37% and TAN (Solar) -1.50%.
    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.98%, FXB (British Sterling) +0.14%% and FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.02%
    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: My "All Weather Asset Allocation" of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes my volatility, and provides me long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide me the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback or to take advantage of seasonal investment trends. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are currency, money market mutual funds, FDIC bank deposits and CD's. Generally, this area benefits from rising interest rates.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, BAICX & PONAX .
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, which, over time, helps to offset the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are AMECX, IDIVX & SPECX.
    From their neutral weightings, 40% each for my stock and bond areas, overweights (underweights) are allowed at + (or -) 5% with rebalance thresholds set at + (or -) 2% from desired weightings while cash is allowed to float. Thus the maximum weighting for both stocks and bonds could be as high as 47% each with their minimum weightings being as low as 33% while cash is allowed to float with a weighting range of 6% to 34%. So what seemed, at first glance, to be a very conservative asset allocation does allow for positioning based upon market reads along with some other influencing factors. Currently, I am overweight equity through the engagement of a spiff position and a little underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to anticipated rising interest rates.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, I have found, principal grows over time as well as the size of my disbursements. My objective is to continue to grow my principal along with increasing my income stream.
    Articles of Investment Interest
    Is Investing an Art, a Science, or a Craft?
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/969787/seth-klarman-is-investing-an-art-a-science-or-a-craft
    Europe Lockdown Fears Knock Stocks, Spark Dash for Bonds
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2021-11-19/
    The Big Green Push to Get Rid of Coal Had the Opposite Effect
    https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-big-green-push-to-get-rid-of-coal-had-the-opposite-effect
    Wall Street Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield in 2022
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-forecasts-us-dollar-10-year-treasury-yield-2022-2021-11-18/
    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
    Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
    T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Another write from Schwab
    “As you can see in the chart below, Dumb Money Confidence has surged … ”
    They’re apparently referencing a chart published a few days earlier. Here is the Schwab article from November 15 which contains the referenced chart.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
    RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
    PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
    PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
    PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
    I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    No one (including myself, Mr. Grantham, Dodge & Cox or T Rowe Price) is offering investment advice.
    Grantham may be exercising a time honored persuasive technique.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I pity the poor soul who has followed Grantham’s advice over the past 10 years or so.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    FWIW,
    I and everybody I personally know invest based on our view of the future - I.e., personal predictions - and within the limitations life imposes on us. Agree that prediction in this context is not the same as certainty of outcome.
    I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years. A few years after one such pronouncements, his firm's then deputy CIO (Ben Inker?) was asked in a Morningstar interview why their funds did not reflect those pronouncements and he came clean saying that they never got around to investing in line with those pronouncements. Lucky for their fund shareholders.
    The linked article in the OP includes the following: "Our forecast is to have a negative return on US stocks over the next seven years. I strongly believe that will be accurate." [Bold added] He may turn out to be correct about negative returns for SPY or VTI from now until October 2028 (7 years?) but not IMO because of currently known facts. I am invested in SPY and am not reducing it based on the quoted statements but I will understand if somebody at MFO wants to reduce or even liquidate their SPY or other US equity holdings based on those statements.
    Nobody should take the above personally. No offense is intended.
  • AAII
    This is an example of the tracking of the AAII Sentiment Survey that I do. It is available elsewhere and my intention is not to start the series here.
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/17/21
    For the week ending on 11/17/21, there was a decrease in the bullish sentiment but it remained the top sentiment (38.8%; now average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.9%; above average). Early December deadlines loom for budget & debt-ceiling. The decision on Fed Chair (POWELL or BRAINARD?) has to be made soon with Powell's term expiring in February 2022. Electric-vehicles (EVs) remain a very speculative area (Rivian/RIVN, Lucid/LCID, etc).
    Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
    10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
    10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
    11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
    11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
    11-17-21 38.8% 33.9% 27.2%
    Observations over life of survey
    Avg 38.02% 31.43% 30.54%
    STD 10.01% 08.36% 09.50%
    LINK
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    “Grantham for all his long term predictions does not invest his funds in line with his predictions.“
    A legitimate point. But I don’t invest according to my own predictions either. Does anyone?
    Prediction
    does not = certainty. So some humility as investors is appropriate. What I attempt to do is tilt things in the direction I think will reduce overall portfolio risk while achieving best hoped for results under varying market environments. Not a perfect science. And beyond the scope of this discussion - except that philosophically it might help understand Grantham’s seeming hypocrisy. What may not be apparent in the list of Grantham’s investments (linked below) are derivatives he may have employed which are designed to offset losses in down markets.
    One thing that set me to thinking about all this was Dodge and Cox’s revelation in a recent portfolio report (for DODBX) that they hold a 5% short position in the S&P, which they think highly overvalued, while continuing to invest in the stocks they find attractive. Quite an unusual step for this very conservative house.
    And this from T.Rowe Price’s May 31 Annual Report for their Spectrum Allocation funds …
    “As we look ahead, the central question for investors—assuming the economy’s recovery from the pandemic continues apace—is whether the returns on financial assets will be as robust. Valuations are elevated in nearly all asset classes, and in some areas, there are clear signs of speculation. It is not an easy environment to invest in, but our investment teams remain rooted in company fundamentals and focused on the long term, and they will continue to apply strong fundamental analysis as they seek out the best investments for your portfolio.” https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=ann&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77957L302
    Note: The above was written 6 months ago. Can we say valuations are better now than they were than? And the “signs of speculation” less apparent?
    Grantham’s Top Investments
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    Mr. Grantham's investments are quite aggressive despite his gloomy market predictions.
    “This is going on as far as the eye can see. It’s an unfair advantage for green investing, Grantham said.
    There may be a bubble that will affect this for a year or two, but it will come back bigger and better than other groups because of this tailwind. This is going to be the most important investment theme for the rest of your life.”

    "To exploit this green boom, Grantham is making risky bets.
    Venture capital and other private investments now compose more than three-quarters of the $1.4 billion in assets he manages across a foundation, a charitable trust and his personal holdings."
    "Grantham says his venture-capital portfolio has returned 19% annually over the past decade, including a 102% jump in 2020, a 'watershed' year."

    Link
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    @sma3 - Thanks for posting the Bloomberg interview. Had forgotten I’d viewed it recently.
    Yeah - Hussman’s a perma-bear. Somehow think Grantham’s a little sharper. GMO must have some good supporting talent & research capability. A bit more here than just some old man crying wolf. Hope he’s wrong. I’d like everybody to be rich, and making money has been easy for many years now.
    March 2009 is when things started to move. Dow has climbed from around 6,000 than to over 36,000 of recent. Just 2 or 3 brief hiccups along the way. The thing some of us who survived ‘07-‘09 might think about is whether at 15 years additional age we’d be willing / able to ride out a storm like that again - possibly something worse. Not a prediction. Just something I thought might add some balance to the general euphorism here.
    @Old_Joe / A nickel for your subscription is in the mail. Am confident I’ll get my money’s worth.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    +1 @MikeM
    Thanks for those stats. I realize he’s been early / wrong / or whatever for quite a while.
    To dump some fuel on the fire here, the new EV truck maker, Rivian, that went public about a week ago now has a market cap greater than that of either GM or Ford. I don’t think they’ve sold a single production model yet, although Amazon (who has a stake in the company) has ordered 100,000. Nuts!
    (At least Mike’s wearing a helmet in case everything goes to hell …) :)
  • now, here's an unusual financial calculator need
    TIAA has 2 kinds of RMD services.
    1st is informational RMD calculation but TIAA doesn't act on that. If one has multiple 403b, their RMDs can be combined and taken from any one 403b. TIAA doesn't know about investors' plans.
    2nd is contractual RMD service where TIAA calculates, makes RMD withdrawals, and sends them to designated accounts.
    So, don't waste money on lawyers before knowing this.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I didn't see in the article what inflation factor is used in these predictions. Did I miss it?
    Grantham has been doing this so long there are now reality checks for those predictions. I found this one from 2018 where on Dec. 31, 2010 this 7 year prediction was made. Below, prediction and actual 7 years later.
    2010 prediction... 2018 actual
    US LC predicted +0.4%... actual was +12%
    US SC predicted -1.9%... actual was +10%
    Int LC predicted +2.1%... actual was +5%
    Int SC predicted -1.4%... actual was +4%
    EM predicted 4.1%... actual was 0%
    https://www.mymoneyblog.com/gmo-asset-return-forecasts-vs-actual-returns-2011-2018.html
    Not sure what to make of it but this obviously smart man has had trouble with his predictions in the past. Why adjust based on future predictions? Yeah, we may be in a value bubble and a bear market is always on the horizon somewhere down the road, but sounds like his algorithms were saying the same thing in 2010. Remember, his predications have to not only predict the global equity markets, but also the rate of inflation. Impossible task maybe? But A+ for the effort.