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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/14/22
    For the week ending on 9/14/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.0%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (26.1%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.9%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.9% (very low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions (a damaging RR strike averted by a last-minute deal); the Fed; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (some positive developments on ground for Ukraine; Russian missile strike damaged a hydroelectric dam; 29+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds down, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=776
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    More than false... just plain stupid.
    Ditto: The notion that the poor “rule the roost” in this country and drive inflation - or any other component of the economy - is nuts. IMHO the poor are largely deprived. Subpar schools, services, political influence. Table scraps by any name.
    @Baseball_Fan - You want to push inflation higher? Drive a BMW. Take a 10K + vacation to a warm spot in winter. Compete against others for a prized “first class” seat on a fuel guzzling jet and for the highest floor at som ritz hotel. That’s inflation my man. It’s not some poor fella buying a pound of hamburger or sack of pasta to feed his hungry kids.
  • possible RR strike coming
    A contract issue is the on-call requirement on off-duty days. This WP article has details - I could read it but it may be behind paywall. There are other industries/professions with on-call requirements that may serve as models. It seems that 3 of the 12 RR unions are sticking to their demands on this issue whose importance was under appreciated by the federal mediators. Everybody is now scrambling to salvage the situation.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/13/rail-strike-railroad-shutdown-biden/
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @Baseball_Fan
    without getting into a political debate...would you agree that policy could also drive inflation regardless of interest rates...i.e, increasing SNAP food program by 25% last October
    As soon as you make that statement, you've entered a political debate. If it "could also drive inflation," I don't care because I think feeding hungry people who don't have enough to eat is more important that whether I pay a little more for something I--and I know you too because you're on this board--can afford. But the optimal word in your statement is "could." It could drive inflation, but there are a thousand other things that "could" drive inflation, such as the fact we have very low unemployment and labor finally has leverage to negotiate wages, such as the fact that corporations see this period as an opportunity to gouge customers and jack up prices while blaming the government for the problem, such as the fact that there are still all sorts of Covid supply chain logjams and a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine that is causing fuel prices to rise. Not to mention the fact that the Fed and Treasury bailed out the stock and bond markets in 2020 with massive stimulus to help rich folks recover from their losses, but also increased the money supply significantly. Not to mention the $953 billion Paycheck Protection Program passed in 2020 by the previous administration to bail businesses out. It's a complex topic and blaming the weakest and poorest members of society for needing food stamps as the primary driver of inflation is absolutely a political statement.
    As for the amount of debt out there, it is a risk, but the risk could just as easily be deflationary as inflationary. Namely, defaults occur. Prior to 2008 there was a tremendous amount of debt outstanding in multiple sectors of the economy. A few defaults changed the scenario pretty quickly. As rates rise, companies and businesses and individuals that are overextended start having problems. There is also the prospect that the government could raise taxes to pay down the debt on the federal level. That would be deflationary, too, and fine depending on how taxes are raised and on whom:
    image image
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @LewisBraham has it right. I’d add that for as long as I’ve been following markets (25+ years) there’s been a “push / pull” between the notion that the economy might teeter into either (1) a deflationary spiral or (2) runaway inflation. A debate old as time. And not an inconsequential one. We came damn near deflation during ‘07-‘08 if we are to believe top Bush Treasury officials at the time.
    I’ll agree with @Baseball_Fan if he’s saying the Fed (mainly Powell) have oversimplified the situation. I myself hope they’re not really glued to the notion of 2% constant inflation because ISTM a good way to muck up the economy and possibly throw us into a deflationary spiral. (Sounds like something “central planners” inside the former Soviet Union might have concocted as their prescribed economic officialdom.)
    Someone commented elsewhere there is “no deflation”. May I suggest that depends where you look? Stocks in companies are an “asset” valued in dollars as are milk and houses. When you saw off 15-25% of their value in short order, that’s a form of deflation. In fact, the resulting “lost wealth effect” typically causes consumers to pull back on spending which could lead to deflation in other areas.
    I’ve said before that the worst conceivable scenario for retirees would be (1) to loose a substantial portion of their invested assets during a deflationary collapse and than (2) be hit with double-digit inflation shortly thereafter.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Three excellent funds tailored for conservative investors that I track tell the story. All are YTD performance figures (from Fidelity) as of last night.
    VWINX -10.24%
    TRRIX -12.26%
    PRSIX -12.86%
    If you really want to freak out … Dodge & Cox’s global stock fund (DODWX) is outpacing all of the above with a -8.5% return YTD. Board favorite PRWCX is also doing better than the three noted above. Probably many more exceptions.
    Franklin might have said, “When bonds go dry we know the worth of ballast.”
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    General advice from CPA's is to not bother with a 1040X unless income impact is greater than $1,000.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    For a guy born in 1959, I think he is naive about inflation.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    +1 Makes me think I only want to hold etfs at Schwab-no oefs !
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    So, there are funds beyond Nuveen/TIAA - from Price, Vanguard, etc.
    I am fairly sure now that Schwab a found a bug in its internal cost-basis system, i.e. average cost-basis for mutual funds (default). Funds mentioned SO FAR are bond funds.
    Remember, some initial responses to the OP post were that if fund firms revise data, brokers have to issue 1099. But these revisions are for "transactions CGs" (vs distributed CGs* or income or ROC*) for which there are definite sale prices (not changed) and internal average cost-basis for mutual funds.
    *None in my case
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    I received a corrected Schwab 1099 today reporting an increase of $0.34 in Short-Term Realized Capital Gains-a transactional CG as referenced by yogibearbull, split between VCFAX and TRBUX . Since the total is less than $1.00, I'm going to ignore this 1099 malarkey ! Currently hold neither fund.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    We are approaching September 6 levels. That was just a week+ ago.
    1-day decline is the worst since mid-2020.
    It was 95% down-volume day.
    See major indexes since 1/3/22, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p13443845664
  • LHA Tactical Beta Variable Series Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000158064222004690/lhatact497supp.htm
    (the fund has no symbol yet)
    LHA TACTICAL BETA VARIABLE SERIES FUND
    Supplement to the Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information
    dated
    May 1, 2022
    Supplement dated September 13, 2022
    The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the LHA Tactical Beta Variable Series Fund (the “Fund”).
    As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective October 7, 2022 (the “Closing Date”). Shareholders who are insurance company separate accounts or qualified plans may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to the Closing Date. Individual investors may redeem Fund shares through their variable annuity or variable life insurance contract. Procedures for redeeming an account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” of the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record.
    Effective immediately, the Fund is no longer intends to pursue its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are held in cash. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    * * * * * *
    This supplement and the Prospectus provide the information a prospective investor should know about the Fund and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and a Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2022 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference. You may obtain the Prospectus or Statement of Additional Information without charge by calling the Fund at 1-833-351-2991 or visiting www.lhafunds.com.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    August CPI came in 8.3%, not much improvement. While gasoline price is down but food and others went up. Consumer spending remains strong. Core-CPI went up to 6.3% from that of July’s 6.1%.
    Today, 10 years treasury moved up to 3.431% and the market falls.