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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • WordPress Security Breach & MFO
    Hi, all.
    A few pieces of information that I hope are helpful -
    Our regular website does indeed run on WordPress, however, we do not use GoDaddy for hosting. So far as I know, the Mutual Fund Observer site has not been breached. I added the "So far as I know," because in most cases, a company's security has been breached for a period of time before they realize it.
    This discussion board does not run through WordPress. It uses an open-source software called Vanilla Forums, which is not nearly so big a target as WordPress. Your password here never gets stored in WordPress.
    That said, no site is ever safe from compromise. The advice from @JonGaltIII is spot on. 1. Use a password manager.
    2. Do not recycle the same password over and over on multiple sites.
    3. Use Two Factor Authentication whenever you're sharing personal or financial information.
    4. Despite the convenience, don't allow shopping sites to store your credit card information if that's an option.
    Happy holidays and stay safe!
    Chip
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    +1 Lewis 100% correct with regard to your last sentence !
  • jobless claims latest weekly number: link to news story
    this is pretty SOMETHING. Even though it will be adjusted and re-worked and adjusted and twisted and manipulated countless times...
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/24/jobless-claims-unemployment-benefits-drop-523293
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    Maybe better off 85% tbills and 15% Bitcoin?
    Article is frightening to say the least
    Where are the adults at the Fed, White House and Treasury?
    Play stupid games win stupid prizes?
    Baseball Fan
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    “U.S. life insurers are backing Americans’ policies with bigger slugs of riskier, higher-yielding investments. Holdings of real estate, below-investment-grade bonds, mortgage loans, private equity, hedge funds, limited partnerships and privately placed debt increased 39% from 2015 to 2020, outpacing the 26% increase in total cash and invested assets, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service. As a result, these so-called illiquid assets represented about 35% of insurers’ $4.04 trillion in investments as of Dec. 31, 2020, up from 32% out of $3.2 trillion in 2015.”
    (Move to riskier assets may impact market liquidity - more evident during times of stress.)
    Excerpt from WSJ (11/24/2921) - https://www.wsj.com/articles/life-insurers-use-riskier-assets-to-back-consumers-policies-11637663580 - Subscription Required
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    I have an update on PDI in the M* link above.
    "PDI is starting to look interesting. It is under pressure from the upcoming merger and tax-loss selling. I am watching $24-25 area in trading ahead of Friday, December 10 merger date (PKO and PCI will fold into PDI). This is the end of convergence theme on them that has been in play since 2016.
    My usual caution on the understated leverage for CEFs applies. So, the stated leverage for PDI is 41.23% that is debt/total assets. But the PDI holders experience 70.15% that is debt/net assets, or 1.7015x that is the ratio of total assets/net assets.
    PDI at Stockcharts https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07707774075
    PDI at CEFConnect https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/PDI "
  • Small-caps at all?
    @gk3105gklm : It seems you only listed 7. Do you equal weight your small caps ?
    Gobble gobble, Derf
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    BAMBX has SD of 4.6% (high). Turnover of 500% is high, so is ER. About 11% in stocks, rest in bonds & others (probably convertible). Don't treat is as cash or CD proxy.
  • Small-caps at all?
    I owned MSSMX WAMCX until the end of the last cycle. I consider them the ex-champ. In small cap space, I own 8 including CSMVX AFDVX FCPGX FSCRX, favorite 3 are CSMVX AFDVX FSCRX. Here are stat from Marketwatch:
    1 week 13 week YTD 1 year 3 year
    CSMVX (3.43) 12.69 41.30 56.26 31.75
    MSCFX (2.08) 4.96 25.58 33.62 14.40
    WAMCX (6.04) (0.85) 8.90 20.32 34.38
    MSSMX (9.21) (13.09) 5.57 32.28 51.53
    FCPGX (5.32) 2.12 14.51 25.55 25.70
    AFDVX (0.79) 14.42 45.17 54.29 24.72
    FSCRX (0.47) 6.01 35.29 40.96 19.55
    Good luck everyone.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    It seems if you go short PDI and long on PCI for the same notional amount, you are guaranteed to make 1.5% (not annualized) in three weeks.
  • Barron's
    “ … I used to subscribed to it for over quite awhile until the Great Recession where I found Barrons completely missed several signs leading to the great decline.”
    I’d concur with @Sven that Barron’s is not a particularly good barometer / predictor of major changes in market direction or sentiment. Their “Commodities Corner” bear call on gold around the 2000 -2002 period stands out in particular. Within a few weeks of the very bearish call, gold took off on a tear going from under $300 to an intermediate term peak of $700-$800 in just a few short years.
    But Barron’s is really a compilation of many different market assessments. A careful reading will reveal these. Their weekly “Market View” column (Formerly called “Quoth the Mavens”) pulls excerpts from an assortment of current financial newsletters. Often, these will contradict one another. Yet a perceptive reader may draw some reasonable inferences. Weekly columnist Randall Forsyth may fall short of being “profound” in assessing market direction or valuation - but provides an intriguing skeptic’s eye toward many financial issues - particularly keen on assessing retail investor sentiment I think.
    I’ve purchased 3 or 4 stocks over the past year based on Barron’s recommendations. All did well. Today I sold one, NGLOY, after a quick 14% run-up since they recommended it roughly 2 months ago. Still like it - but have been trimming risk wherever I can of late. So, based on some very limited experience buying their picks, I’ll guess they’re probably right more often than wrong on those recommendations.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    There are discussions on the merger of PKO and PCI into PDI at other sites. This has been a long convergence theme with the merger finally effective on December 10, 2021 (about 3 weeks). https://community.morningstar.com/s/feed/0D53o00005UznTdCAJ
  • Small-caps at all?
    Sorry... I didn't complete my sentence. Was interrupted. Ignore my comment on reversion. Cursory glance at life perf. of some of the SC was interesting but not meaningful given variable time periods of life.
    CSMVX +13.09
    FCPGX +13.71
    BRUSX +13.74
    MSSMX +13.83
    MSCFX: +15.38 and the lowest ER of the list.
  • WordPress Security Breach & MFO
    A hacker was able infiltrate GoDaddy's WordPress provisioning system using a compromised password.
    These are the consequences and actions taken as of 11/22/2021.
    Upon identifying this incident, we immediately blocked the unauthorized third party from our system.
    Up to 1.2 million active and inactive Managed WordPress customers had their email address and customer number exposed. The exposure of email addresses presents risk of phishing attacks.
    The original WordPress Admin password that was set at the time of provisioning was exposed.
    If those credentials were still in use, we reset those passwords.
    For active customers, sFTP and database usernames and passwords were exposed.
    We reset both passwords.
    For a subset of active customers, the SSL private key was exposed.
    We are in the process of issuing and installing new certificates for those customers.
    Our investigation is ongoing and we are contacting all impacted customers directly with specific details.
    This was a serious breach for GoDaddy.
    Their security team, an independent IT forensics firm, and law enforcement are still investigating.
    Hopefully, the culprit(s) will be brought to justice and prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
  • Small-caps at all?
    1Q2020, CSMVX lost less than FPACX OAKBX , for example, so even though different investment objectives, impressive performance for a small cap growth fund !
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    If I was independently wealthy, I can think of a plethora of worthy donees. First, your high school or college may benefit-in my case my Alma Mater has Touchdown Jesus library and an endowment of 10 billion dollars, so they wouldn't need it. HBCU's are a possibility, just to rile up the voters from a particular party-Howard University must need some help with their dilapidated housing! Or a particular medical project could benefit;in my case, since I have early CKD, the Artificial Kidney Project, a joint collaboration between UCSF and Vanderbilt has piqued my interest. $20 million, not a staggering sum would fully fund the project and greatly reduce the need for dialysis services provided by Davita and Fresenius. Obviously, if I won a hundred million dollar lottery, I would fully fund this project, although government funding could end the shortfall in an instant!
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    @davidmoran, I find it interesting that "B" is still a small cap value company. A little history:
    Wallace Barnes began working for both his father Alphonso and grandfather Thomas in the family hotel and general store. The general store specialized in clocks, but it also sold drugs and general merchandise. Wallace eventually became skilled as a druggist. Partly because he and his father did not get along, however, he left to start his own druggist shop in a nearby town. Lackluster returns from that venture prompted him to try his hand at a new business, clockmaking. Wallace started out contracting to supply cut glass, doors, and parts to different clockmakers who were part of the bustling clock trade that had developed in Bristol; in fact, Bristol was known as the clockmaking capital of the United States at the time. Unfortunately, the local clock industry fell on hard times when the Panic of 1857 caused a severe depression.
    At the time of the Panic, Wallace was working for clockmaker A.S. Platt. Platt, for whom Wallace had been working at the rate of $1.25 per day, became unable to pay him for his services. Instead of cash, Barnes accepted some hoop-skirt wire as compensation. In a move that demonstrated his dealmaking savvy, Wallace hauled the wire in a wagon to nearby Albany. There, he traded the wire for a financially troubled haberdashery store. Rather than stay to run the store himself, Wallace turned around and traded it for a Missouri farm that he had never seen. Upon returning to Bristol, he managed to trade the farm for a blacksmith shop, which he sold for the handsome sum of $1,600. Incredibly, Wallace used the money to purchase the troubled A.S. Platt, the company that had given him the wire in the first place.
    https://company-histories.com/Barnes-Group-Inc-Company-History.html
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    150 years ago, the park system in our local town was bestowed to the city and its residence by the wealthy industrialists whose success was due in large part to its local workforce.
    https://connecticuthistory.org/mr-mrs-rockwells-park/
    Small world.
    I'm originally from Central CT and lived near Bristol.
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    It seems so much good could come from all of this excess wealth, yet if such good exists, it appears under reported.
    A little off topic from this thread, but on the topic of what to do with excess wealth...
    150 years ago, the park system in our local town was bestowed to the city and its residence by the wealthy industrialists whose success was due in large part to its local workforce.
    https://connecticuthistory.org/mr-mrs-rockwells-park/
    I'm sure this happened throughout the country at the time.
    A generation later the factory work went overseas, the three family homes that once housed factory workers now are filled with section 8 housing recipients.Those less fortunate dwell in these same parks.
    We really have lost our way.