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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    +1 Andy The question is: which trading vehicle is best for this new opportunity- oef or etf (I'm too chicken to buy a closed-end fund!)
    @Carew, depending on the exact situation, I'd prob'ly lean toward SVARX in an open-end fund. Making bucks after a blowout is their M.O. But I'm watching PDI and PDO with interest; they've both sold off lately and might come into bargain territory at about the right time.
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    +1 Andy The question is: which trading vehicle is best for this new opportunity- oef or etf (I'm too chicken to buy a closed-end fund!)
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    This Rekenthaler M* article on EMs may be worth a read. He finds that shareholders like us (I.e., outsiders, not insiders) have not seen our EM investments pay anywhere near what the growth rates of the various countries would suggest, especially since the GFC.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1032995/emerging-markets-equities-a-promise-half-fulfilled
  • Half of this year’s blockbuster IPOs are underwater, despite broad stock rally
    Article appears in today’s (November 29) Financial Times.
    Link is for an alternate source which may be more accessible.
    Title is taken from the FT.
    Bylines: Hudson Lockett & Tabby Kinder
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    This ETF is quite new, if anyone is interested. Lipper shows it but w/o much detail.
    “Ark did not respond to requests for comment … about the new Short Innovation ETF.”
    Story
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Just read an interesting Bloomberg article which takes a retrospective look at the BRICS.
    Link
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    What a difference a year makes. Fun reviewing previous commentary about the EM market now that it's close to year end.
    Here's the performance YTD:
    ARTYX -4.19%
    FSEAX -8.55%
    WAESX +16.11
    MIOPX -2.02
    WAEMX +24.13
    And a link on WAEXS courtesy of Kiplinger/ Nov 24: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/mutual-funds/603792/wasatch-emerging-markets-smallcap-goes-its-own-way
    ARTYX and FSEAX = not my finest choices for 2021. Should have exited back in March.
  • Muni-outlook from Schwab for 2022
    +1. Thanks for that. I checked out some other linked articles, too. :)
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    +1. Keeping my eye on that sector, still..... No moves until after the New Year.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    @hank - Aside from a minor nit, I agree with you. Though a fund that's 94% long and 6% short is net 88% long. TSMRX (equity) is 31.74% long, 37.54% short, for a small net negative position of -5.80%.
    What you wrote about the quality of bonds being what matters tends to weaken the idea the BAMBX made money on Friday basically because it was in bonds. Especially with these funky funds, you can't tell much from their allocations alone.
    Here's an interesting comparison. Two funds with very similar allocations, both across asset classes and by bond ratings:
    Asset allocations (fund 1 vs fund 2):
    US equity:       11.28% vs. 10.32%
    Foreign equity:-0.70% vs. 0.90%
    Fixed income: 77.38% vs. 82.64%
    Other:             0.00% vs 0.04%
    Cash:             9.90% vs 4.72%
    Not classified: 2.14% vs. 1.38%
    Viewed from the perspective of equity and debt (fixed income + cash), the two sets of allocations are close together. In addition, while both funds' equity lean toward value, fund 1 has a lower average market cap. Lower market cap stocks tended to do worse on Friday. (Source: morningstar home page, with a style box currently showing Friday's returns for each style.)
    Bond allocations (fund 1 vs. fund 2)
    AAA: 31.6% vs. 33.5%
    AA:  1.4% vs. 4.21%
    A:   12.9% vs 12.3%
    BBB: 13.9% vs. 16.4%
    BB:  19.7% vs. 16.10%
    B:   15.0% vs. 13.0%
    Below B: 0.9% vs 3.55%
    Not Rated: 4.5% vs 1.0%
    Fund 1 has less in IG bonds (BBB and above) in nearly every category, and it has more BB and B junk bonds. Given Friday's flight to quality, as with the equity side this suggests that fund 1 would likely have done worse than fund 2.
    Overall the differences are minor. The first fund, not surprisingly given the 77% allocation to bonds, is BAMBX. Lewis wrote in Barron's that the core of the fund (about half) is high quality bonds. M*'s take is a little different, it characterizes this part of the portfolio as multisector. 35% junk does lend support to that. So I compared this fund to a multisector bond fund.
    Some multisector funds went up on Friday, some down. For a good allocation match, I used RPSIX as the second fund. A nearly plain vanilla multisector fund with a dash of equities. It went down 0.2% Friday, while BAMBX went up 0.2%.
    Bond funds go up, bond funds go down, even with the same credit quality allocations, even with the same 10% net allocation in equities. Especially on any given day. It doesn't seem to matter so much that BAMBX is 77% in bonds as what those bonds are (type and duration).
    With this I'm just echoing what you wrote:
    Likely that includes many other types of credit. Quite conceivably, very short dated treasury
    Sources (all portfolio figures are as of Sept 30, 2021):
    - for asset allocations, the funds' respective M* portfolio pages.
    - for credit quality allocations: M* portfolio page for RPSIX; Blackrock's fund fact sheet for BAMBX.
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fact-sheet/bambx-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-factsheet-us09260c1099-us-en-individual.pdf
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    Excerpt from Saturday’s (November 27) Wall Street Journal
    “Investors’ hunt for higher fixed-income returns has powered sales of low-rated corporate bonds to a record. U.S. companies, including medical supplier Medline Industries LP and videogame maker Roblox Corp., have sold more than $455 billion of bonds with speculative-grade credit ratings this year through Monday … That already beats the full-year total for 2020, when junk-bond sales set a then-record of $435 billion.
    “This year’s bond sales mark a notable reversal from the spring of 2020, when investors’worries about widespread bankruptcies and defaults sparked a selloff in low-rated debt … In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund warned that increased leverage could make the financial system more vulnerable to corrections…”

    Subscription Required https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-yield-bond-sales-soar-to-record-as-investors-have-few-other-places-to-go-11637931601?mod=hp_lead_pos4
  • Oil Price Slumps on Fears of New Covid-19 Restrictions / WSJ
    Excerpt from Saturday’s (November 27) Wall Street Journal:
    “South Africa’s warning of a new and fast-spreading strain of coronavirus walloped the energy sector on Friday, leading to the sharpest declines in oil prices since the global economy locked down early last year to slow the spread of the deadly virus. Oil prices fell more than 11%. Gasoline and diesel futures each dropped more than 12%.”
    Subscription required https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-slumps-on-fears-of-new-covid-19-restrictions-11637953717
    Wanted to post this because somewhere else I reported the one-day drop at around 6%. Actually it was double what I first thought. A lot of natural resource & commodities funds have heavy weightings in energy. Personally, I’ve pretty much vacated those funds. Was way too early, but glad to be out.
    From watch-list Friday: BRCAX -3.6% / PRAFX -3.13% / PRNEX -2.8%
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    +1 fred Yes the -2.23% return in 1Q 2020 is a big factor for me-better than BBBMX DLSNX and MASNX "safer havens" that blew up on me then !
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    Apparently I didn't communicate well. I was trying to point out that one can't infer much from percentages of long and short, let alone net allocation percentages, for much but vanilla funds.
    So in observing that BAMBX was 165/65, which superficially looks reminiscent of 130/30 funds, I should have emphasized "superficially". Strategy matters a lot.
    In market neutral funds, shorts roughly balance the longs (as in BAMBX, where the equity portion is 53/43 long/short). Market neutral funds use shorts to tamp down volatility. OTOH, funds that are net long (~100%) in the market while shorting generally are using the shorts aggressively as a source of cash to add to their long positions.
    Likewise, my observation that TMSRX lost money on Friday despite its substantially long bond position (and insignificantly short equity position) was a response to the speculation that "77% in bonds likely reason [BAMBX] was up a bit yesterday".
    If 77% in bonds helped BAMBX, wouldn't 48% in bonds similarly have helped TMSRX? Not last Friday. Often one can't glean much from net allocations. Especially day to day.
    Regarding TMSRX, it currently uses ten different strategies. At least that's how TRP enumerates them:
    T. Rowe Price is continuously researching new strategies that may be employed at any time. The current strategies used as components of the fund’s overall portfolio are as follows:
    Macro and Absolute Return Strategy ...
    Fixed Income Absolute Return Strategy ...
    Equity Research Long/Short Strategy ...
    Quantitative Equity Long/Short Strategy ...
    Volatility Relative Value Strategy ...
    Style Premia Strategy ...
    Dynamic Global FX ...
    Dynamic Credit ...
    Global Stock ...
    Sector Strategies ...
    Each of the strategies is constructed using its own specific investment process ...
    Fund prospectus.
    That's just the strategies. Tactics seem to include buying and selling almost anything under the sun. And it's hard to tell what the fund is "thinking".
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    Derivatives involves bets on both direction and time. So, one can be right about direction but wrong about the timeframe and results would be poor, and so on. The other thing is that assumptions underlying derivatives-based portfolios may unravel during market turmoil or fast markets. The so called market neutral funds may just not be that.
    In the bygone era, I did hold a 130-30 long-short fund for a while. My conclusion was that results were similar to moderate-allocation funds but were achieved with high ER.
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    M* Portfolio "% Below 52-wk High" is price-based and is not reliable as distributions are not accounted for. The other thing to note is that for bond funds, the high was in December 2020 while for stocks in November 2021. Stockcharts provides better information.
    LINK1 Prices
    LINK2 Reinvested
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    “It's not so easy to figure out what these sorts of funds are doing.”
    Agreed, it’s very difficult to get “under the hood” of a fund like this. But, if anyone here can, it’s probably @msf - :) With TMSRX’s meager low single digit returns (and apparently many fleeing for greener pastures) I’m not too worried about the degree of risk they’re assuming. If the fund were cranking out 15% annual, I wouldn’t own it. That would be completely out of character with its stated purpose and the risk profile Price has established for it.
    “TMSRX is net 48% long in fixed income and net 6% short in equity, both of which should have helped its performance Friday, yet it dropped ½%.”
    Not so fast. There are 5 different investment approaches outlined and utilized by the fund. You’ve mentioned 2 or 3. And Friday may have been an aberration for a number of reasons, including very thin trading in the U.S. plus the fact that many international exchanges had suffered severe losses before the U.S. even opened.
    Let’s look at how some some common hedges fared Friday. Real Estate and Utilities both were off 2% or more - despite falling rates. Commodities / metals fell in sync with equities. Long bonds prospered - but do you want to own a lot of those? Furthermore, fixed income need not consist of “long only ” bonds. Several of Price’s allocation funds utilize its Dynamic Income fund which tends to move opposite the direction of typical bonds. The investor class, RPIEX, actually lost .82% percent Friday.
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/overview.asp?symbol=RPIEX.O.
    Let’s give TMSRX another day or two to prove itself - assuming Friday was the beginning of something worse. The benefits of a fund like this don’t always kick-in on day 1 of a broad market selloff. If folks aren’t comfortable with these types of funds, that’s fine. There are other ways to hedge risk, including building cash. I will tell you I work very hard to run a hedged portfolio, including about 5% currently in TAIL - Yet TMSRX did better than I did Friday.