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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • giroux m* update
    It has underperformed both VWELX and VBINX
    ???
    PRWCX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 11.65% (annualized)
    VWELX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 10.52%
    VBINX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 9.25%
    Portfolio Visualizer gives similar results when looking at returns from Sept 2020 - Aug 2025.
    That’s interesting. Appreciate your comment. I used Chart Fund on M*; Growth including Dividends; 5 year period. For some reason it provided me with different results and I’m not sure why. Definitely wasn’t knowingly providing false information.
  • Tariffs

                              And @FD1000 IS PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN !!!
    image image
  • Active Management In The Bond Market
    Because the bond market is so fragmented, active bond ETFs have been around for years, while active equity ETFs is a relatively new development.
    The real reason is simple: the S&P 500 is a powerful momentum-driven index, and U.S. markets have been leading the world. That makes it very hard to beat over several decades.
    Bonds, on the other hand, are far less efficient. Their performance depends heavily on interest rates, which makes them far more vulnerable.
  • Tariffs
    Thought it was time for an update on tariff price impacts. In March 2025, I updated all our kitchen appliances from a local big box appliance store.
    Refrigerator cost $2200. Now 6 months later $2900, same model $700 more.
    Stove cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1200, same model $200 more
    Dishwasher cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1100, same model $100 more.
    Microwave cost $329. Now 6 months later $399, same model $70 more.
    A 23.6% total price increase before taxes.
    Anyone care to add their experiences, good or bad?
    This is YOUR inflation.
    The last CPI came at 2.9% year over year.
    35 years ago I bought a side-by-side Whirlpool. It was about $600.
    It lasts 25 years. I bought a new one 10 years ago for around $800.
    Today, a similar one is about $1000 (https://www.lowes.com/pd/Whirlpool-24-6-cu-ft-Side-by-Side-Refrigerator-with-Ice-Maker-Fingerprint-Resistant-Stainless-Steel/1000422565)
    About 10 years ago I bought a Countertop 1000 watt microwave for $100. 3 months ago I bought a similar one, for $85 (https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mainstays-1-1-Cu-ft-Countertop-Microwave-Oven-1000-Watts-Black-New/2701684169?classType=REGULAR&from=/search).
    I designed a new kitchen about 25 years and didn't want microwave over the range. They are 3-4-5 times more expensive. They break more often, and they don't vent as well as a simple range hood.
    ==============
    Sven: We notice our grocery bill has gone up 30% easily this year
    See (link)
    "Food prices rose faster than overall inflation. The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Food prices in August 2025 were 3.2 percent higher than in August 2024.
    The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home:
    The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 2.7 percent higher than in August 2024.
    The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 3.9 percent higher than in August 2024."

    ====================
    The usual Dems DD = dismiss + downplay everything and concentrate only on the worst.
    The Dems and all their fake experts, some Nobel Prize winners, promised us that the CPI will go to the sky. It's just 2.9%.
  • Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    I too expect further rates cuts, and then very possibly a reckoning. With various labor shortfalls as we deport workers and limit visa availability, inflation already knocking at the door of 3%, lofty market valuations and rising credit defaults, there are a lot of things that make the future a bit worrisome.
    My portfolio has earned almost 65% since Jan 1, 2024. Giving back a large chunk of those gains is more concerning that squeezing every drop of juice. I expect lower FED funds rates to juice bond and stock valuations, until something simply doesn't work any more. maybe inflation starts to rise changing the FED perspective, or anything really, then it will be "Katie bar the door", as folks rush to the exits.
    As I have stated here before, I am my lowest equity allocation in my life, and considering going lower. The safe bet may be quality bond funds for the short term. Something I have started owning again for the first time since 2019.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/25
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/25
    Tiny shift into stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $41.42 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $414.2 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.38%, Hybrids 4.13%, Bonds 17.45%, M-Mkt 17.05%
    (Recent Stock % peak was in 10/2024)
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2231/thread
  • Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    One reason bond prices are increasing is that many investors expect further Fed rate cuts.
    What would transpire if inflation became worrisome and the Fed hiked rates in the months ahead?
    It appears that certain bonds are "priced for perfection."
    The spread for IG corporate bonds was only 0.74% in September — the lowest level since 1998.
    The spread for junk-rated bonds is about 2.75% which is near the record low of 2007.
    Private credit defaults have been on the rise with a default rate of 9.5% in July before receding slightly.
    “'There’s been a very positive investment environment for a long time,
    with a large amount of money and a lot of optimism,' said Howard Marks,
    co-chairman of investment firm Oaktree Capital Management, which specializes in credit investing.
    He said that can lead to high pricing and declining quality.
    'The worst loans are made at the best of times.'”
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Telis Demos.
    On this day in 1987, Charles Schwab launched its IPO, selling 8 million shares
    of stock to the public at an original price of $16.50 apiece.
    Just 20 days later, the crash of 1987 hit.
    The stock market plunged 23% in a single day,
    and Schwab’s stock was hammered down to $6.50 a share.
    The stock has returned over 52,000% since then.
  • AOR
    I took another look at iShares allocation series: AOK (30-70), AOM (40-60), AOR (60-40), AOA (80-20).
    It used to have typical allocation names - CA, MA, BA, AA, but actual equity allocations were much lower than common use. Now, it seems that it has allocations within the names (effective only 2/19/25, supplement 12/20/24), so just watch how well it sticks to them.
    I don't have any direct experience, but this new form is definitely better than the old form. When you read other analyses on these, keep this recent change in mind.
    OLD Names-->NEW Names
    iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF-->iShares Core 80/20 Aggressive Allocation ETF
    iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF-->iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF
    iShares Core Moderate Allocation ETF-->iShares Core 40/60 Moderate Allocation ETF
    iShares Core Conservative Allocation ETF-->iShares Core 30/70 Conservative Allocation ETF
  • Thinking Outside the Box - Income Portfolio
    I think the notion of not spending enough is aimed at only certain folks. I get it. After a lifetime of carefully watching spending, things can work out far better than expected, but increasing spending can be difficult for savers.
    And what more does a person desire? A bigger house does lead to other expenses. So can buying newer more expensive vehicles. We like our neighbors, which is a big deal. Even if our house has a couple unnecessary rooms. Selling and moving can create a lot of expenses too.
    I just cannot think of anything that I truly desire that I don't already have (materially). But, I won't be inconvenienced over money if I can help it. In that regard, travel comes to mind.
    OTOH, if I need 1x and have 5x, should I be looking to pass on 10x in 20 years, to people whose lives will not be impacted much by a big influx of cash later in life?
  • Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    Same might apply to corporate debt. WSJ has been sounding alarms. Premium from investment grade corporates over government backed debt is at historic lows. Worse as you go down the ladder.
    Two sudden bankruptcies in the auto world—of a subprime lender and a parts supplier—have triggered (worries) among bond investors and analysts.”
    Article The Credit Market Is Humming-and That Has Wall Street On Edge - WSJ 9/29/25
    (At MSN if you can pul it up.)
  • giroux m* update
    It has underperformed both VWELX and VBINX
    ???
    PRWCX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 11.65% (annualized)
    VWELX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 10.52%
    VBINX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 9.25%
    Portfolio Visualizer gives similar results when looking at returns from Sept 2020 - Aug 2025.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 26 September 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through August and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday.
  • Foreigners Buying US Stocks at Record Pace
    @WABAC, interesting that our oversea funds/ETFs far out-paced that of S&P500. Same goes for bonds too on dollar term. For now i will take a wait and see.
    I no longer look at etfs for bond funds. PYGSX is about as close as I can get for the duration I'm willing to endure. I am caught between China exporting deflation and Europe running guns and butter with low rates.
    I'm thinking about slowly building a position in EISIX in the IRA as long as the conditions I quoted above are in place.
    I have enough foreign in the taxable thanks to VWIGX, SEQUX, and a few others.
  • Thinking Outside the Box - Income Portfolio
    I love my induction hotplate. It adds almost no heat to the environment, which is a consideration during an Arizona cooling season.
    I also like the ability to fine-tune the temperature setting. So I'm currently cooking something at 175, and if I forget about it, the machine turns itself off after an hour unless I have programmed a longer time. In any event, it would never get hotter than 175.
    My darling wife loves the blue flame on the gas stove at all seasons. She also buys stuff from Amazon. Otherwise, we all admit She is practically perfect in every way.
    I would investigate noise, reliability, and the cost of running a new circuit before looking into going all in on an induction range.
    Heat pumps are all the rage in our part of the world. "Older" homes still have gas pipes in place for running gas-fired air conditioners after the end of swamp-cooler season.
    Talk about thread drift, yikes. :-D
  • Foreigners Buying US Stocks at Record Pace
    @WABAC, interesting that our oversea funds/ETFs far out-paced that of S&P500. Same goes for bonds too on dollar term. For now i will take a wait and see.
  • Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    So said Irving Fisher many years ago. Today I read that there is a new normal on Wall Street. Dinky linky.
    strategists are rethinking what normal looks like for today’s market.
    Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian is among those making the case.
    “Perhaps we should anchor to today’s multiples as the new normal rather than expecting mean reversion to a bygone era,”
    /snip
    Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told Yahoo Finance that while valuations remain elevated compared to long-term averages, they look more justifiable when measured against the past five years — a stretch marked by megacap leadership and strong fundamentals.
    “Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 is trading at roughly a 40% premium to its long-term average on forward estimates,” he said. “But on a five-year basis, when mega-cap tech began to dominate market cap and earnings growth, that premium shrinks to a high single-digit range.”
    1. I'm waiting to read the magic words.
    2. It's really interesting to see what lengths people go to to find reassuring patterns in data.
  • Foreigners Buying US Stocks at Record Pace
    A few thoughts come to mind . . .
    I would like to see a breakdown of where that money is coming from. Is it some sort of flight to safety> Or is it wanting to get in on the AI boom?
    I have a feeling that 30% of our equity market invested from overseas is going to be less sticky than money invested domestically, i.e., it might be likely to flee fastest at any sign of trouble.
    Considering the political drift of this thread, this part of the article caught my eye:
    While returns have been solid in 2025, at the index level, the purchases haven’t been as lucrative as they would have been if executed in other major stock markets. The S&P 500 has underperformed equity benchmarks in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and China, both in local currency and in US dollar terms.
    The MSCI World Index has advanced 15% this year and is currently on pace to outperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2017. The MSCI All-Country World Index with US stocks excluded is outperforming more sharply, rising 22% compared with 13% for the S&P 500.
    Well. That's interesting. We're setting records, and all those sleepy country markets are whupping us.
    So I asked my friend Perplexity to scrape the collective wisdom of the internet to learn when, and under what conditions, international equities have out-performed US equities. Perplexity does a nice job of showing the resources it scrapes for its answers.
    The long answer is at the dinky linky. For now I'll skip the history lesson and quote the section on salubrious conditions since foreign beats domestic 40% of the time.
    Conditions Favoring Foreign Equity Outperformance
    Valuation Discounts: Foreign stocks are often priced at substantial discounts to US peers, sometimes at as much as a 35% discount, making them more attractive on a forward-return basis, especially during periods when US valuations are elevated.
    Currency Effects: Periods of US dollar weakness tend to amplify returns for US investors holding foreign equities. Conversely, a strong dollar often dampens relative foreign returns.
    Cyclical Macro Shifts: International equities benefit when global economic growth prospects outside the US are stable or improving, particularly when the US is facing recessions, stagflation, or policy uncertainty (e.g., tariff shocks, higher US interest rates).
    Sector Leadership: Foreign markets with strong sector tailwinds (such as renewable energy in Europe or manufacturing in Asia) can outperform when those sectors are globally competitive.
    Policy and Structural Reforms: Governments outside the US with fiscal capacity and willingness to stimulate growth can boost earnings for local stocks.
    US Market Headwinds: Foreign equities tend to outperform when US equities are affected by factors such as policy-driven uncertainty, overvaluation, or a narrow concentration of gains among a few mega-cap stocks. [In regard to that last insight I'll add that we've boiled our market down from a nifty fifty to a mag7]
  • Tariffs
    Thought it was time for an update on tariff price impacts. In March 2025, I updated all our kitchen appliances from a local big box appliance store.
    Refrigerator cost $2200. Now 6 months later $2900, same model $700 more.
    Stove cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1200, same model $200 more
    Dishwasher cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1100, same model $100 more.
    Microwave cost $329. Now 6 months later $399, same model $70 more.
    A 23.6% total price increase before taxes. Glad I bought before tariffs.
    Anyone care to add their experiences, good or bad?