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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Maturing CDs
    Fixed rate deferred annuities, if used as savings vehicles (and not annuitized) are very much like CDs. Like CDs, and unlike funds, stocks, etc., their value cannot go down.
    https://www.blueprintincome.com/fixed-annuities-cd-comparison
    There is the risk of the insurer issuing the annuity going under, just as there is the risk of a bank failing. In the case of a bank failure, a government agency (FDIC) steps in, tries to get another bank to assume your bank's liabilities. If it succeeds (almost all the time), you may be forced to choose between taking you money (including interest to date) and running, or accepting a lower return for the remainder of the time on your CD.
    In the case of an insurer (the issuer of your annuity) failing, it is a state government agency that steps in. As with banks, states first try to "rehabilitate" insurers - either get them back on their feet or have another insurer take over their liabilities. Should they not succeed, the insurer is liquidated.
    Here's Pennsylvania's general description (not state-specific) on how that proceeds. A state-created guaranty association pays for losses not to exceed state limits. Again, similar to what the FDIC does for banks. A key difference is that state guaranty associations are typically underfunded. So it is important to stick with better rated insurers. (Rehabilitation/liquidation is to be avoided in any case.)
    Pennsylvania FAQ on insurance company liquidations
    Single Premium Deferred (fixed) Annuities are rather simple vehicles if one does not annuitize (i.e. one uses them like CDs). The key numbers are:
    - guarantee rate,
    - number of years rate is guaranteed,
    - floor for annual renewal rate after that (insurer might offer more depending on market),
    - penalty each year for early withdrawal (e.g. 7% in year 1, 6% in year 2);
    - amount/percentage that can be withdrawn annually without penalty
    There should not be a penalty for withdrawing everything once the multiyear guarantee period is past.
    Something that has been added in the past decade or two is MVA - market value adjustments. Suppose interest rates have gone up since you purchased your annuity. Then, like a bond, the value of your annuity has dropped. If you close out your annuity early (effectively "putting" your policy), you are forcing the insurer to overpay (i.e. pay 100% of face value minus any early redemption charges). MVA lets the insurer adjust the payout accordingly, so that it doesn't overpay.
    Conversely, if interest rates drop, your annuity is worth more than face value (plus interest). MVA adjusts the payout upward, so you "win". Many annuities but not all these days come with MVA.
    https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/market-value-adjustment
    MVA seems to enable insurers to issue policies that pay a bit more. But they're shifting market risk onto you, in case you redeem early.
    Here are Mass Mutual's rate sheets for its 3-5 year Stable Voyage Policies (no MVA) and for its Premier Voyage Policies (with MVA). The latter have higher rates, e.g. 4.25% or 4.35% on policies under $100K, while the Stable Voyage Policies (no MVA) pay 4.2%.
    Stable Voyage rate sheet (Dec 30th)
    Premier Voyage rate sheet (Dec 30th)
    Important: These rates are dated Dec 30th. They are less than the rates I found quoted today. So rates on these annuities are about to drop.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Kanopy, a streaming service through many libraries across the nation, is free with limitations. I never use up the 15 or 20 movie limit per month. It isn't a suggestion to replace any of the choices mentioned above but rather to function as a decent adjunct.
  • Maturing CDs
    I have followed this thread, but had only 2 short posts on T-Note quotes & FRN USFR.
    IMO, good CD alternatives are T-Bills/Notes (noncallable). All these can be held to maturity without incurring losses. The CD & Treasuries investors are quite different from fund investors because funds have duration and they never mature, so there may be gains or losses at sale.
    As for annuities, there are basic fixed-term and lifetime SPIA that have low-costs and may be fine for many. Any guarantees are from the insurance company, so stick with highly rated companies.
    TIAA offers many low-cost annuities - for retirement or taxable accounts.
    A big issue with annuities is that one is stuck with annuity rules - while tax-deferral is good, withdrawal penalties apply before 59.5. Taxes also apply on withdrawals.
    Insurers know that & can offer attractive rates to captive clients. They also publicize those offers aggressively along with luring initial incentives.
    One can do 1035 exchanges between annuities, but it isn’t a simple online process.
    IMO, first exhaust all other tax-deferral options - IRAs, 401k/403b, 529, etc. When these options weren’t available, annuities were very popular.
  • Maturing CDs
    Great stuff by @msf on annuities. I agree they are a viable option at this time. Guessing they were even more so about 6-12 months ago when rates were at/near their peaks.
    That said, annuities have always been a 4-letter word to us. Too high fees, loss of control over your money, difficult if not impossible to understand terms, etc.
    Not saying all of the drawbacks can't be overcome, but any prospective buyer MUST identify and understand all of the many mistakes they can (and others often do) make when buying them. Or things may not go as planned/expected.
    Here's some primer links in the event anyone here is so inclined. If it's our money, I wouldn't stop with reading just these:
    https://annuityguys.org/five-annuity-mistakes-you-should-avoid/
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022316/5-mistakes-avoid-when-shopping-annuities.asp
    https://www.neamb.com/retirement-planning/7-common-annuity-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them
    EDIT: Barron's does an annual review and report by annuity type that I consider the best on the planet and would absolutely use as our primary guide if ever seriously considering an annuity.
    (Note: A few years ago we did consider one and passed.)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/best-annuities
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    Another observation. Do Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard have their own Dow Jones funds? No, they don't. Do they have the SP500? YES.
    Years ago, back when Vanguard was providing free financial plans, my mother had them work up a plan. Several years prior, Vanguard had introduced its own index funds (working with MSCI to develop more tax efficient indexes). Yet the plan used Vanguard 500 rather than its broader based, better performing (at that time) large cap index fund.
    I asked the planner why. As near as I could decipher the response, it was because Vanguard 500 was better known/more popular. Financial decisions are often made by "popular demand" and not by objective analysis.
    This is not to say I think the DJIA is especially representative of "the market". Just that looking at who is offering what is not the best way to validate that.
    OTOH, which market index does Fidelity display by default on its home page? Clue: it's up 200 points today and it's not the NASDAQ.
  • Maturing CDs
    I've invested in so many cash, short term, and fixed rate vehicles that I've lost count. The ones that come to mind are: prime MMFs, government MMFs, Treasury only MMFs, national tax free MMFs, single state MMFs, ultra short bond funds, short term bond funds, short term national muni bond funds, short term single state bond funds, short term government funds, short-intermediate national muni funds, T-bills, short and intermediate CDs, liquid CDs, callable CDs, short term muni bonds, callable muni bonds, SPDAs, and GICs (stable value).
    I've used some of these when the idea of losing even a single penny was an anathema to me, and I've used some when I was seeking a better multi-year return. So I appreciate different objectives, especially the concern about share prices declining. (What, you mean I could actually lose money? I've had those thoughts.)
    Some people here have said that they would not use a prime MMF - too much risk for the small additional return. Actually, the risk goes further - scores of MMFs have been propped up by their sponsors over the years, including several that would otherwise have broken a buck. Regulations have changed since then; still, prime MMFs remain more risky.
    https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/10/twenty-eight-money-market-funds-that-could-have-broken-the-buck-new-data-on-losses-during-the-2008-c/
    One used to see SNGVX mentioned as a safe short term fund (see, e.g. here) - it never had a losing year. That was before 2021, when it lost almost 1% followed by 2022 when it lost nearly 4.5%. So when it comes to OEF bond fund risks, your concerns are understandable.
    ISTM David Sherman manages his short term funds in an unusual if not unique way, resulting in his CrossingBridge funds as well as RPHIX never having had a losing calendar year over their lifetimes. Admittedly, they are not without some volatility as your 2020 experience attests. That you pulled the trigger so quickly then also attests to the great importance you place on preservation of principal.
    @stillers wrote: "4% guaranteed interest is our threshold vs bond OEFs. 5+% is pretty much nirvana." That seems to be your thinking as well: "I want to lowest risk option to produce 'at least' 4%." Further, you seem willing to make a multi-year commitment (you're considering callable CDs that if not called, will take several years to mature).
    Based on that, welcome to nirvana. Another poster mentioned MYGAs, aka fixed rate SPDAs.
    https://www.blueprintincome.com/fixed-annuities-cd-comparison (fixed annuities vs. CDs)
    You can get a 3 year fixed annuity with an A rated insurance company yielding over 5%. Depending on your state it may even allow 10% of balance withdrawals without issuer penalty, mitigating liquidity concerns. One does need to be over 59.5 to take withdrawals without tax penalty.
    If you want a policy from an AA+ rated insurer, MassMutual is paying around 4.65% for three years, depending on your state of residence. All of these policies have the added benefit of tax deferral (for taxable accounts), including the ability to "roll over" the proceeds (1035 exchange) to extend the deferral period. No loss of principal, "high" rate that cannot drop, some liquidity, and tax deferral. Seems to check all your boxes and more.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BenWP : it's striking how dependent we've become on internet access in our daily lives. Hopefully AT&T brings their fiber to your neighborhood, as combining my mobile account along with internet and their TV offering (currently Direct TV) has saved me almost $150/month when consolidated.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @PRESSmUp: even tho we live in a metropolitan area of SE MI, our house might as well be in rural MI for connectivity purposes. The neighbors have Xfinity, but that company wanted $3500 in 2008 to connect our house. We tried a TV dish antenna for 2 years with cell phone hotspot for internet and had spotty results. The only provider serving us is ATT; the internet, TV, and landline services depend on our phone line. We are almost 3500’ from ATT’s distribution box, so we can have 2 HD channels on at the same time, but not 4 because of the distance. This matters when I might be taping a sports event and watching another one. We don’t watch many movies; Netflix on the smart TV meets our needs there. As for the price, even with modest internet speed and the second tier of TV offerings, it has risen to $335 per month. Talk about a screw job. I am an inveterate channel switcher so going from one streaming service to another in the time it takes the pitcher to deliver the next slider is an obvious impossibility. We could easily drop the landline and save a bit, granted. When I have to call ATT for billing or service problems, I follow a friend’s advice: keep saying over and over, “I want to speak to a real person.” It has worked before, although the service rep may not share my way of speaking English.
  • FRB considering major changes to bank stress tests
    There will also be a 5-yr internal review of Fed operations that will be released formally at the 2025 Jackson Hole Fed Conference.
    In a related news on Fed Stress-Tests, some banks are planning to sue the Fed over it,
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/24/biggest-banks-planning-to-sue-the-federal-reserve-over-annual-stress-tests.html
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    Another observation. Do Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard have their own Dow Jones funds? No, they don't.
    Do they have the SP500? YES.
    IYY-iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF = the SP500
    What are the biggest weighted companies in the Dow (https://www.slickcharts.com/dowjones)
    GS at 8+% while it's number 46 in SPY at just 0.35%
    The more you look at the Dow, the more you see how it DOES NOT reflect the US stock market. It's a dinosaur.
    You can drive in the Model T or today's vehicles.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Not meaning to further hijack the thread but yesterday I just lit up a trial of a mm-Wave 5G internet service here in NoVA. 500+ down and 100+ up for $45. If after 30 days I decide to switch back to my 300/300 FIOS (roughly same price), I can just go into the building phone closet and re-connect the coax back to FIOS. But for now I'm kicking the tires with videos, downloads, uploads, and business-as-usual stuff for my internetting.
    (nice plus: they have batteries on the roof to keep the signal going during power outages - on FIOS, if there's a local power outage, it goes down across the system.)
  • VANGUARD CHESTER FUNDS LITIGATION
    This settlement about Vanguard TDFs (or, TRFs, as VG also calls them) happened a month ago in November 2024. Issue arose from poor handling of the merger of 2 VG TDFs in 2022. VG Chester is the name VG uses for a group of its funds of funds. Those affected should have received some information.
    MFO is incorrectly picking up the tag for TRF that doesn't exist anymore.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-pay-40-million-mutual-164815113.html
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (12/23/24)
    Put These Charts on Your Wall For Reference The Next Time You Think:
    00:00 Intro
    00:23 "All-Time Highs Are a Sell Signal"
    01:39 "Investment Returns Are Linear"
    02:41 "Overbought/Oversold!"
    04:20 "Credit Card Rates Can't Go Any Higher"
    04:58 "Spreads Can't Get Any Tighter"
    06:05 QT and Stock Returns
    07:23 Inverted Yield Curve and Stock Returns
    08:41 Fed Cuts and Higher Mortgage Rates?
    10:09 Most Unaffordable Housing Market Ever
    11:35 "Vacancy Rates Can't Go Any Higher"
    12:39 "You Can Trust All Government Inflation Data"
    13:53 "EM Can't Possibly Underperform Any Longer"
    14:52 "US Stocks Can't Possibly Outperform Any Longer"
    16:23 "Markets Follow a Normal Distribution"
    18:01 The Milei Miracle
    18:55 "The Biggest Companies Can't Get Any Bigger"
    20:16 "Cars Are Appreciating Assets"
    21:28 "Rolex Watches Always Go Up in Value"
    22:59 "The Past = The Future"
    24:01 "Picking Stocks Is Easy"
    25:02 "A Valuation Can't Go Any Higher"
    25:53 Shorting on High Valuation
    26:43 "Investors Are Rational"
    28:34 "This Streak Can't Go On Any Longer"
    29:54 "Profits Don't Matter Anymore"
    31:19 "It Can't Go to Zero"
    32:11 "Bonds Are Risk-Free"
    33:29 Meme Stocks
    33:54 "Correlations Are Static"
    35:53 Headlines
    37:11 National Debt
    38:45 Big Winners = Big Drawdowns
    39:56 This Has to Be the Top
    41:02 The Travel Comeback
    42:21 Capitalism vs Communism
    43:50 Wall Street Can't Predict the Future
    45:06 Why You Need to Invest, In One Chart
    46:27 There Is No Impossible in Markets
    Video
    Blog
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Crash $2 rental ?! Maybe it's goes to coffee & rolls. Graft at the public library. Do they charge for other material ? Copy machine is 25cents BW, color $.50 per piece at local library.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @hank- I was under the impression that you were using Musk's Starlink. Have you switched to fiber optic? If so, is that service relatively new around there?
    Yup. I was early by 1-2 years in my neighborhood in having high-speed broadband when I put up a Starlink dish in November 2020 (rooftop mounted due to the tree line). Was very proud to have been an early (beta) user. Was miles ahead of the 4G cellular I’d relied on for internet. However, Musk kept jacking up the monthly rates (from around $99 initially to $135 over 3 years) and then announced plans to impose rather tight data limits.
    Fortunately, by that time fiber had been installed here. Not burried but strung on poles. Less expensive & no data cap. So ditched Starlink about a year ago. A story of progress! Actually, when I retired in ‘98 and moved to this area all we had was dialup internet. Took 3-6 hours to download a single music album! I bought a DirectTV kit back then at K-Mart for about $50, nailed it up on the side of a garage, burried cable to the house, and had access to great TV for that day. Something like $29 a month back then.
    * I should add that prior to 2020 there were a couple satellite based internet companies who had a few subscribers here. But the reports were poor. Essentially, slow connections and high prices.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Some depends on what you need. Low-lying lake shore area here. Can’t pick up any of the locals due to nearby hills + forest - even with a substantial tower mounted antenna. I’ll bet most of you folks can receive your locals. Not that the locals are that great. But if you want the major networks / local stations out here you need to subscribe to something.
    I’ve gone from DirectTV (rooftop dish receiver) to Hulu / Disney / ESPN (internet based) to UTubeTV (internet based) over the past 5 years. Prices fell with each change. UTube TV’s live TV package just jumped from $73 to $85. But it’s a very inclusive package with ESPN, TNT and lots of other sports channels. No complaint. Don’t mind commercials for regular programing. Hate for movies. Rent an occasional movie from Amazon Prime for $5 or buy the CD DVD used from E-Bay. Also, you can buy movies at Prime, save in your library and view them as often and for as long as you like.
    I haven’t noticed any difference in the number of commercials among the 3 sources I’ve tried. DirecTV was horrible to work with. Glad to be rid of them. Hulu / Disney were fine to deal with. The Hulu / Disney package included commercial free movies. But you tire of the Disney branded eventually.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    What changed?
    The Dow doesn't matter as much because the SP500 is a weighted cap index. The best performing companies take a bigger share which is based on the price.
    How many 401K have the SP500 or VTI and how many have the DOW Jones? I have never seen the Dow and I looked at dozens over the last 3 decades...and for a good reason.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I cut the cable cord early this year and save a bunch of money. Mostly the same programming plus more. My bill was cut from ~220 with spectrum cable to about 89+55=144 for Hulu+ and Greenlight for internet (faster fiber optics). And yes, commercial free for movies, series and DVR'ed programs.
  • Maturing CDs
    raq,
    That's correct if someone has risky stuff, DT doesn't. I respect DT decisions and his choices.
    When I used to own both stocks and bonds, my bond funds were never the "safe" ones. My first bond fund that I bought in 2010 was PIMIX. Then, I prepared for my retirement in 2018. By the end of 2017, PIMIX was over 50% of my portfolio.
    All my funds must be top performers ALL the time in their category based on risk-adjusted performance.
    RPHIX vs MM. I'm with msf. As I said before, when rates fall, and they will eventually, RPHIX would do better.
    But, why stop with RPHIX? Let's look at DHEAX+CLOI. For one year...VMFXX(MM) made 5.3%...DHEAX made 9.1%...CLOI 8.2%. Both volatility max loss was -0.5%. See chart (https://schrts.co/zbSQiQxp).
    BTW, I've not been in the TR camp for years now. My portfolio volatility is very low, but performance is still good. I'm not arguing about CDs or not; just offering another option. I understand that this thread started as a CD one, but why not discuss the next step, especially when there is not much to talk about CDs?