@Old_Joe
China's current consumption of coal ranks 12th per capitia. They are the number 1 user of coal in the world by weight, an astounding 50% share of the world coal usage. Another way of saying this, "China is half of the dirty coal problem...the rest of the world is the other half."
https://worldometers.info/coal/coal-consumption-by-country/
Lets look at current air quality stats, Real Time Air quality statistics:
China:
https://aqicn.org/map/china/
US:
https://aqicn.org/map/usa/
and,
worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/air-quality-by-state
Let's look at how the US and China produce energy by input fuels:
China:

China's primary input fuel for energy is coal, which accounted for about 58% of its total energy consumption in 2019

eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/China
US:
https://eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
Regarding Dire Real Estate Challenges in China (from the same news source (CNN) that @Catch22 sited):

what matters the most is that Beijing has taken the bold initiative, which will help stabilize expectations.
Taking a long-term perspective, the plan could reduce the risk of China sliding into a “deflationary spiral” like Japan did, as a key lesson from there is that policy makers should avoid doing too little, too late, they said.
“[This might be] the beginning of the end of China’s housing crisis,”

economy/china-property-crisis-stimulus-challenges-intl-hnk

Since the start of 2024 there have been many penny-stock IPOs — often defined as IPOs priced below $5.
Through Sept. 30 of this year, there were 164 of them on U.S. exchanges including 147 on Nasdaq.
According to Jay Ritter, a University of Florida finance professor emeritus,
106 penny-stock IPOs were brought to market from 2001 to 2023.
"Last month’s initial public offerings included a Cayman Islands-incorporated provider
of shrimp-farm maintenance services in Malaysia with only four employees.
The IPO by Megan Holdings priced at $4 a share and raised $5 million."
"There has been a flood of similar microcap IPOs over the past two years,
a sign of the speculative fever gripping many parts of the investing world.
These stocks often lure in everyday investors before they tumble.
Some have produced eye-popping gains following announcements
related to a name change, cryptocurrencies or artificial intelligence."
"Nasdaq has promised to clean up its act and on Sept. 3 asked the Securities and Exchange Commission
for permission to tighten its listing standards, especially for small Chinese stocks.
This followed criticism by investors and lawmakers that such listings have become breeding grounds
for scams and manipulation."
https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-gejykl-duklntldl-r/

I try to remind myself of these fees each time I am offered a "free" steak dinner from these wealth management companies.
In my world, management fees would only be allowed on positive performance (the gains), not the initial investment amount (the principal).
For example, If I give you $10K to invest and that investment becomes $11K in a year, I am willing to pay you 1% on the gain (1% of $1K or $10), not 1% on the entire $11K.
You helped me make $1K... I brought you $10K.
Conversely, If you lost money for me that year, you get $0 fee.
Or even better, how about you pay me 1% of AUM in the years when my portfolio had negative returns. We are a team, right? If "we do better when you do better" is true, than how about "we both do worse when you suffer a loss (do worse)".
In terms of retirement Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) of say 4%, a typical 1% management fee equates to 25% of that SWR (1% of the 4%). That a significant reduction in retirement income.
I'll take that steak dinner to go please!

Not seeing this from the articles I read. China is reeling, not rising. From high unemployment rates to overbuilt and overprice real estate to government stimulus that directly keeps the party going.
Here are a few reads I found revealing:
China in Charts:
the-chinese-economys-moment-of-macro-weakness-in-charts/
Government Stimulus and The China's Economic Impulse:
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/04/gauging-the-strength-of-chinas-economy-in-uncertain-times/
Problem- The Chinese Real Estate Sector and Chinese Wealth Effect:
insights_understanding_china
China economy: Finding a cyclical floor amid a structural downturn:
https://oxfordeconomics.com/china-economy/

As noted in this month’s issue, PMEFX is shutting down next month. M* labels it a Moderately Conservative Allocation fund while Lipper labels it a Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Growth.
As @DavidSnowball noted in the May 2024 issue (as prodded by @shipwreckedandalone), it was, at the time, outperforming the Lipper averages for conservative and moderate allocation funds as well as VWINX.
I’ve been a fan of the managers’ approach since they managed the old Berwyn Income fund and am now looking for something with similar risk-adjusted performance and downside protection to fill that slot in my portfolio.

I emailed David already about pinning the 2025 CG link to the top/near top of the page, so it is easier to find.

Not sure how many know that M* does a lot of stock analysis. I’m a subscriber. Little experience however using their metrics. FWIW they are favorably disposed toward OTIS and have a fair value of $106, substantially above its recent close.
Baron’s has highlighted the company in at least one piece over the past year and is also favorably inclined. Their August 14, 2025 article is headlined: ”Otis Worldwide Stock Is Set to Get a Lift - The elevator company is poised to benefit from increased demand, thanks to a building boom in China, South Korea and India”
I have had pretty good success with Baron’s recommendations, but much patience needed. Sometimes takes years for their assessment to play out. Easy to get frustrated.
I usually look at Zack’s. They have OTIS rated a 3 (hold). They rate it C for momentum but D for both growth and value. Compared to the industry they have it in the upper 20%. I’m often puzzled by their ratings. I think they tend to be near-term thinkers.

Appreciate your response. Totally agree with what you stated. Given our current Orange President, I’m not sure how our companies are going to do business in China. He is really forcing countries to become more detached from the U.S., which will spur the growth of Chinese businesses to replace ours in China. That is a growth concern for U.S. multinationals.

Not sure how many know that M* does a lot of stock analysis. I’m a subscriber. Little experience however using their metrics. FWIW they are favorably disposed toward OTIS and have a fair value of $106, substantially above its recent close.
Baron’s has highlighted the company in at least one piece over the past year and is also favorably inclined. Their August 14, 2025 article is headlined: ”Otis Worldwide Stock Is Set to Get a Lift - The elevator company is poised to benefit from increased demand, thanks to a building boom in China, South Korea and India”
I have had pretty good success with Baron’s recommendations, but much patience needed. Sometimes takes years for their assessment to play out. Easy to get frustrated.
I usually look at Zack’s. They have OTIS rated a 3 (hold). They rate it C for momentum but D for both growth and value. Compared to the industry they have it in the upper 20%. I’m often puzzled by their ratings. I think they tend to be near-term thinkers.

Look into AQR Fusion Series
https://funds.aqr.com/News/2025/AQR-Launches-the-AQR-Fusion-Mutual-Fund-Series

This short summary presentation underscores and defines what many of us already understand about the continuing policy fails of the current administration and the ongoing misdirection(s), and global impacts. China's 'Belt and Road' program is still in place, and is very happy and healthy.
CNN, America needs to get SERIOUS !!!
Fareed Sakaria, 6 minute video, October 5, 2025 after a short AD. CC available, but was set for the link.

I like to use StockRover. They're calling it a HOLD, currently. Their call is for 8.65% upside to target share price. (1 year.) P/E is 24.2 and that's already too rich for my blood. A solid company that's been around forever, you're right. I like the beta, at just 0.47. Maybe wait for the expected fall in the Market generally? The EPS Predictability and Cash Flow Predictability numbers are stellar. Over the past 5 years, the company's own P/E is at a rather reduced point, though 24.2 is still higher than I'd be willing to pay. The dividend yield is 1.8% and so it's just too little for me to go for. But if dividends are not a priority for you, that just won't matter; it will feel like a bonus when it comes. Payout ratio is 41.7, so that's sustainable. ...You can always dollar-cost-average your way in, in small steps, on a regular basis. Break a leg!

Never heard of that stock analysis website. I typically use Value Line and Morningstar. Recently, I’ve been looking at OTIS, AOS, MKL, CB, and AWK. The last one currently looks the least interesting.

These calculators were shared this week by Rob Berger. Seemed worth sharing.

This Tax Return and Refund Estimator is for tax year 2025 and currently based on 2024/2025 tax year tax tables. As soon as new 2025 relevant tax year data has been released, the tool will the updated accordingly.

efile.com/tax-return-calculator-for-2025-refund-estimator
Here's Vanguard Roth Conversion Calculator:

Conventional wisdom states that if you expect your client’s future tax rate to be lower than their current tax rate, it would not make sense to do a Roth conversion. However, Vanguard research shows that you should consider additional factors to determine a “break-even tax rate” which will help you decide whether or not to convert your client’s traditional IRA to a Roth IRA or traditional 401(k) to a Roth 401(k).

vanguard.com/tax-center/tools/roth-betr-calculator
2025 Tax & Retirement Contribution Guide:
https://advisors.vanguard.com/content/dam/fas/pdfs/FATXGD10.pdf
*Vanguard's link seems to be missing the saver's credit...here's info is:
savers-tax-credit-2025.pdf

@FD1000. Big agreement with you here. The entire portfolio is THE THING. I call it paying attention to a “single metric “. I record the portfolio balance on 12/31/. Everything else is noise. I admit I listen to the noise at too high a volume and too often. But I try to pay attention to my single metric. And I use a benchmark that corresponds with my general asset allocation.

I do that, too: record my year-end total, so I can watch and compare the next year's growth (or not, if I've been stoopid.) KISS it. I'm down to 9 positions, and in terms of size, 1 of them is like an afterthought. That 9 positions includes Cash. 5 funds and 3 single stocks.
Don't wanna end up like Moonlight Graham, who got called up to The Show, but never got to bat. I'd rather make my own mistakes, particularly since I know some stuff by now, unlike when I first began investing. Like Annie Savoy told Crash Davis: "young men are uncomplicated." That's the way I like the portfolio. Uncomplicated.
P.S. I just discovered that a couple of the prospects I'd been watching (ADRs) are traded OTC and would come with a commission, if I bought. I'm not buying.

I like to use StockRover. They're calling it a HOLD, currently. Their call is for 8.65% upside to target share price. (1 year.) P/E is 24.2 and that's already too rich for my blood. A solid company that's been around forever, you're right. I like the beta, at just 0.47. Maybe wait for the expected fall in the Market generally? The EPS Predictability and Cash Flow Predictability numbers are stellar. Over the past 5 years, the company's own P/E is at a rather reduced point, though 24.2 is still higher than I'd be willing to pay. The dividend yield is 1.8% and so it's just too little for me to go for. But if dividends are not a priority for you, that just won't matter; it will feel like a bonus when it comes. Payout ratio is 41.7, so that's sustainable. ...You can always dollar-cost-average your way in, in small steps, on a regular basis. Break a leg!

I don't believe in portfolio sleeves or core bond funds at all. I am oversimplifying it but I think in terms of high volatility and low volatility.
Loosely, below is how I screen and pick
- Funds with volatility below 5% and returns above 10%. If I don't get matches, I loosen the selection criteria.
- Review the investment strategy, track record, managers, current macro, projected macro, etc.. and pick or discard.
- Same as above for high vol where vol is below 20% and returns a few points higher than a selected benchmark (the benchmark will vary, examples include SPY, VT, etc..). The main idea is that an active fund should be worth picking over a passive fund
- I generally stay away from sector, buffered, single intl country, crypto, EM debt.
- Overall my goal is to have a balanced mix of high octane funds (AVALX for example) and hedges (QDSIX, QMNIX, QLEIX, EGRIX for example)
- MFOP hands down is the best screener out there (and I have used a few dozen) but intra month I rely on barchart.com (limited screening functionality but performance is updated daily)
- At this moment my favored hedge is EGRIX and I am looking at scaling into AVALX, AVDV, FPADX, QNZIX.

For decades now, I don't look at one sleeve of my portfolio but the whole portfolio.
This allows me to use all categories.
I came to the conclusion to only hold leading categories/funds and look for the portfolio's total risk-adjusted performance and limited number of funds.
In retirement it's a lot more important for me to have much lower volatility. I pay less attention to performance because I have enough.
Simple example:
Instead of holding stocks + bond fund I may use QLEIX instead in the last 5 years.
Suppose I want just 30% in stocks. Instead of 30/70 VOO/BND, I select VOO/RCTIX. See 10 years (https://testfol.io/?s=18uGeuEjL0F)

@hank : Just a guess, thinking for long term holders?
P.S. I didn't read the article.

Not sure reading the article would help much with my question. I’m interested in what happens to these types of stocks if the markets enter a steep downturn? Barron’s does not address that.. There was a thread here about TROW (with a caption like ”Buy TROW instead of its funds?”) 5-6 years ago. How’d that go?
@Derf raises an interesting secondary question. When you buy a stock, how long do you intend to hold it? Buffett might say forever. Doubt many of us have that degree of patience. I only buy individual stocks when the price is already depressed. But if it turns south early on I’m likely to sell. That would have been the right thing to do with TROW 5 years ago.
(TROW stock price: - 27.4% over 5 years)
PS - Here’s an interesting discussion I ran across today.

This week’s Barron’s has an interesting article recommending an investment in asset managers. Three mentioned favorably: T. Rowe Price, Blackrock, Invesco, each for different reasons. With Invesco they like that about half of its offerings now are popular ETFs. For Blackrock it’s the continuing growth of AUM and high quality of management.
What they say about T Rowe Price: T. Rowe may be the deepest value and riskiest bet. At just 11 times forward earnings, it’s one of the cheapest fund managers on the market. It’s cheap for a reason: Assets keep draining away. The company reported $24 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2025 after seeing $43 billion depart in 2024.
My question: While all of the above may be true, wouldn’t the stocks of these three firms (and asset managers in general) fall sharply if the equity markets entered a prolongued (year+ long) downturn owing to the market generated loss of AUM? And, in such a scenario wouldn’t those firms (like the 3 mentioned) heavily invested in retail fund flows suffer the most? I recall trying to play Invesco during the ‘22 downturn and it didn’t go well. Your thoughts?
(Article caption: “The fund industry faces big hurdles, but these three asset managers have been unjustly dismissed.)”

I think of an AI like Perplexity as a better search engine without so many ads--yet. All it does is scrape the internet.
Ten years ago few would have thought of searching google for the best mutual fund to buy right now, or, what is the cure for cluster headaches?
If I ask Perplexity a question like: What is the success rate of low cost mutual funds? Or, are there any new developments in cluster headache research? I get interesting summaries and good links to follow up.
So I asked Perplexity for good mutual funds to buy during a government shutdown. Am I interested in Perplexitie's answer? Neigh, I click on the sources tab to see which sites it relied on for its answer. This link should take you there.
BTW, I am not really interested in buying a fund for the shutdown; I am curious what other people are saying.