Found the soon to go away school lunch budget that 20B might have funded. Guess they will find it in the fed worker salary line item and play more delete: "The estimated 2025 federal budget for the National School Lunch Program is $17.4 billion, with the School Breakfast Program costing an additional $6.1 billion." (AI Google answer)

TIPSwatch 10/12/25 has updated its guesstimates. https://tipswatch.com/2025/10/12/i-bond-fixed-rate-projection-just-fell-to-0-90/

Right now, China produces more air pollution than the rest of the world combined
What's the definition of "air polution"? For example, China is responsible for "only" 30.1% of all global greenhouse gas emissions (2023 data; see Table 1 on p. 10 of this 2024 EU report)
I'm not minimizing the seriousness of the problem. From the data I've seen (I'm currently taking a course in environmental politics), we've already passed the 1.5°C threshold. I just like to understand what numbers mean when they're bandied about. Does the size of Manhattan really matter? After all, it's only half the size of San Francisco. 23 sq miles vs. 46 sq miles, though I couldn't tell you whether that counts only land area or includes surrounding water.
And the EU considers fossil gas (i.e. methane, a GHG) and nuclear power to be "sustainable energy". As of 2022. Definitions matter.
https://www.politico.eu/article/top-european-court-rules-nuclear-power-green/

I agree that the cap on I bond purchases limits their usefulness as a major portion of one's portfolio. But since you were looking only at I bonds purchased in 2021 (when the caps were in place) you might replace those I bonds with new, better (higher yielding) bonds, one-for-one.
That doesn't help increase your holdings though. It also doesn't help replace the value of those 2021 I-bonds because they've appreciated (four years interest).
Also, and I'm being pedantic here, the $5K purchase allowed with tax returns was per tax return. A couple could buy $10K with their tax refunds only if they filed separately. Regardless, that refund purchase went the way of the dodo when paper bonds were discontinued.
The three month penalty technically doesn't reduce liquidity. Though I appreciate the hesitance to incur that penalty. In that sense the penalty is doing its job of reducing outflows.
One often sees suggestions to invest in longer term CDs for the short term if their yield after early withdrawal penalty is better than a shorter term CD held to maturity. With this in mind, I tend to give less weight to small (3 month) penalties than other people. Each person's take on withdrawal penalties is a little different.
Finally, inflation is determined (set?) by BLS. And that is not an independent agency like the Fed but a part of the Department of Labor. Which may be even more disconcerting. The September CPI figure has already been delayed from Oct 15th to Oct 24th. This figure affects I-bond rates and SS COLA. And is it being released despite a government shutdown. All of those factors make the figure suspect.
I'm about as far as one can get from a conspiracy theorist, but one has to wonder about a figure produced by a department that recently fired its head (Erika McEntarfer) and couldn't get a hack appointment (E.J. Antoni) confirmed. A department that furloughed its employees only to call them back to produce this number.
I suspect that like most government employees, they're not being paid. Though I'll bet they know how much they're owed, down to the penny. :-)

Cui bono?
I wonder who made the big bucks on the TACO trade between Friday and Monday? Who got the tip the Friday threat was coming? I've read that there were some profitable shorts in crypto on Friday.
https://cryptoslate.com/the-big-bitcoin-short-who-shorted-btc-before-trumps-tariff-post-to-bank-200-million/

Putting AI to use.

Equity and ETF Markets
Trading data from major short-oriented exchange-traded funds (ETFs) show a clear increase in volume ahead of the announcement. The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) and ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 (FXP) — funds that profit when Chinese equities decline — experienced abnormally high trading volumes in the days leading up to October 10, when Trump first issued the tariff warning. The surge in those bearish funds coincided with a 6–7% plunge in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks immediately following the threats. This pattern suggests that some traders were positioning for downside risk before the news became public.
​
Crypto Markets and Insider Speculation
Separate reports indicate large short positions in Bitcoin and Ether placed roughly 30 minutes before Trump’s tariff announcement. The ensuing market crash wiped out almost $400 billion in crypto market value, while the anonymous investor allegedly made up to $200 million within 30 minutes. Analysts from CoinDesk said the timing and magnitude of those short positions “raise suspicion of information asymmetry,” fueling speculation that some traders may have had advance knowledge of the White House’s move.

​

Plain and simple. Get what you need elsewhere.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/13/amazon-fires-ahmed-shahrour-for-protesting-companys-work-with-israel.html

Thanks @msf for your explanation. The challenges we have with I-bond is several folds. One is the small allocation annual allowance -$10K plus 5K from tax return per person (a total $30K per family of two). For us the amount is too small to move the needle in the fixed income bucket.
Second, I bond has a five-year holding period without incurring a 3-month penalty. To us that is a bit long on the liquidity side. I may give up a bit by building a 5 year ladder consisting of 6 months T bills. At least there will be fund available every 6 months as T bill matures.
Third, this is my opinion only. Will the FED remain independent and what is the probability of manipulation of the inflation rate by future board?

What is happening today? Quite a reversal of last Friday’s downturn.
https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall-street-opens-higher-after-trump-cools-rhetoric-on-china/ar-AA1OnsRl?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=68ed3b8c7a3a4ea78b44ddb68f03a752&ei=47

Curiously, one of those more attractive options is ... I bonds.
Swapping your current 0% (fixed rate) I-bond for a new one paying 1.1% will cover the early withdrawal penalty (3 months interest) in about 8 months (3.98% vs 2.86%). After that, you'll be getting a rate that's 1.1% higher than your current rate.
If you wait until next spring to swap, you may get a fixed rate that's lower the current offering of 1.1% for the life of the I-bond (or however long you choose to hold it). And you'll only be saving a quarter of the penalty, since a replacement I-bond now will have made up 3/4 of the penalty by then.
Tax considerations:
The penalty for early withdrawal is pre-tax - a reduction of the interest declared, not a payment of post-tax money to the Treasury Dept. (Still looking for what I consider an authoritative source to connect the dots between forfeiture of interest and tax treatment, but believe this to be correct.)
The interest on your current I-bond is fully tax-deferred until you cash out the I-bond or until it matures in 2051 (30 year final maturity). It is also state tax exempt. You would owe taxes whether you cash out as you wrote or you swap for another I-bond (that's still a redemption).
Paying tax now might not be a bad thing if you're in the 12% tax bracket.
If you are in a low bracket and also drawing Social Security, the added income could raise the amount of SS subject to income tax. (For many people the percentage of SS that's taxable is between 50% and 85% computed in a somewhat inscrutable manner.) It's possible (don't know, wild guess) that the effective tax rate on a dollar of added income might move from 12% closer to 22%. Experimenting with last year's tax software should give a clue.
My perspective on I-bonds is that they are cash, not bonds. They have a known, always rising value, like a bank CD (including its early withdrawal penalty). This is unlike a bond that can lose value or a brokered CD that is nearly illiquid.
I agree that there are better options for investing if you're thinking about some bond choices. Are there better options for cash (or "near cash") in a taxable account? I don't know.
Using T-bills as a benchmark, a new six month CD will yield around 3.7% (Fidelity estimate). It will be pretty liquid (just a small potential loss in secondary market). It will be taxed in 2026. In comparison, a new I-bond will yield 3.98% for its first six months. It will be tax-deferred and unredeemable (for a year). Or, given your thoughts on the I-bonds now, perhaps irredeemable :-)

We invest in I bond in 2021 when inflation was more than 5%. Since then we have not add more since there are more attractive options. In spring 2026 the i bond will mature and we will invest elsewhere.

Unlike April, bonds behaving normally again, seems like. After Friday's swoon, SPY -2.7% (QQQ -3.5%), pretty massive, as @Junkser points out. But TLT up an impressive 1.6%.

+1
I made money last Friday and my portfolio is at all time high.

Unlike April, bonds behaving normally again, seems like. After Friday's swoon, SPY -2.7% (QQQ -3.5%), pretty massive, as @Junkser points out. But TLT up an impressive 1.6%.

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 10 October 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through September and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday, when stocks headed south.

@hank Yeah, BTC swooned like 15% for a while and a *ton* of the crappy 'alt-coins' (AKA 'shit-coins') got devastated. If anything, it should reinforce the notion that only BTC and ETH are acceptable crypto 'investments' ... the alt-coins are kiddie gambling at best. (I bought some more BTC yesterday, actually)
The crypto reddit forums are awash with newbies who got into crypto alt-coins in the past 1-2 years freaking out, questioning crypto, etc, etc. I shake my head at their idiocy.
Interestingly, someone opened a new crypto brokerage account on Friday, put on a huge levered short BTC position shortly before Donnie's tariff tantrum. The account made like $180M intraday. Who leaked the info to whom? Was this someone inside/associated with the White House? If so, the corruption isn't even being done in smoky backrooms anymore...

Interesting there hasn’t been any mention of Friday’s massive crypto losses here - or I might have missed it. The best article I’ve seen is on Bloomberg. I’ve been told these BB gifted links are intrusive / loaded with tracking cookies. So use care. I know nothing about crypto. But the article suggests that hedging tactics in play by betters investors may have backfired - possibly relevant to hedging tactics being used in other markets.
Bloomberg Link - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/crypto-s-record-selloff-sparks-intrigue-over-who-got-wiped-out?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2MDI4OTA0MSwiZXhwIjoxNzYwODkzODQxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUM1o3V0pHUEwzWFUwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCNUZDNUE4OTZGNzg0N0E2QjIzMDdFQjNBRDFENUQxQiJ9.prD9HpxWPoLLTS6PAujOedSW7ZfqkDxl81hE5inq_ow
No opinion of the role Mr. Trump’s messaging or tariffs played in Friday’s action. If you build a tall enough house of cards it doesn’t take a lot to topple it. My reference is to high valuations, leveraged bets & speculation. Interesting too that the federal grand jury indictment of FOMC member Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud hasn’t been cited by folks as a contributor to Friday’s action. ISTM that’s a big financial news story capable of moving markets. Whether Cook’s guilty or innocent, the Fed is becoming something of a punching bag for those who want to alter monetary policy.
Thanks @Junkster for the insights. I’m not even playing with middling investment grade corporates currently based on the narrow premiums over AAA.

Friday was the worst day for the S@P since April 10. A note from Subu Trade on X. Since 1950 there have only been 8 times the market made an all time high (as it did Thursday) and then dropped 2.5% or more the next day as it did Friday. On all 8 occasions the market was always higher 6 and 9 months later. Maybe just fun with numbers so we shall see this time around. Still worried about junk bonds and another credit event down the road. But then I am always worried about something.

Tips Watch:

My (author) thinking: I Bond investors who haven’t purchased their full allocation ($10,000 per person per calendar year) should consider making a purchase before the end of October — I’d suggest Oct. 28 to give a margin of safety. An I Bond purchase late in the month earns a full month of interest. But don’t cut this too close to Oct. 31.
Buying in October locks in the current fixed rate of 1.10%, which is likely to go lower for purchases after November 1. It also locks in the current composite rate of 3.98% for a full six months, and then a potentially higher composite rate in the next six months. That sort of yield should be competitive with T-bills if the Fed continues reducing interest rates this year and next

Article:
https://tipswatch.com/2025/10/05/i-bond-rate-reset-were-heading-toward-chaos/?

The Great Wire of China!
I guess it will power China's ghost towns:

It is unclear how many of these Chinese ghost cities currently exist, but estimates put the number as high as 50 municipalities.

https://allthatsinteresting.com/chinese-ghost-cities

In world of finite resources, does China appear to be a steward of this little blue marble we call earth?